| The Fool Gives Thanks |
|
|
|||
|
At this time of year, it's customary for people to reflect on their lives and recognize the things that they truly appreciate. I asked some of our Foolish staff to contribute write-ups on stocks that give them reason to give thanks. Personally, I'm thankful that this collection managed to come together. I must give special thanks to my pals Jen Roberts (MF Mints) for editing and Jonathan Wilder (DomePiedro) for the production. Without their efforts, this collection would still be lingering in the depths of my inbox, like leftover turkey. ThankFooly, Keith Pelczarski (MF Czar) 11/28/96 |
|||
|
FOOL TAKE -- ONE FOOL'S
OPINION*
BE Aerospace, Inc. (Nasdaq: BEAV) Was your last flight a comfortable one? Then be thankful for BE Aerospace (BEAV). The company is the world's leading producer of aircraft interiors, including seats, galleys and entertainment systems. BE Aerospace sells and services its products to nearly every major airline in the world. So, it's clear the products of BEAV really fly! Will its stock price take off, too? With the booming demand for Boeing aircraft and a new relationship between Boeing and BEAV, the future looks bright. EPS projections are the color of cranberry sauce (That's Thanksgiving talk for rosy). First Call gives the following estimates.
FY 1997 - $0.69 The company reported a loss of $3.71, due to acquisition costs and a writedown associated with the development of the MDDS Entertainment System, so it's not possible to run a Fool ratio. However, it's easy to see the company is headed in the right direction. There are some areas of concern. The company has a lot of debt, about $273 million. Also, they recently announced a secondary offering of 4 million shares. The proceeds from the offering will be used to pay down debt and furnish working capital. Of course, the new shares will reduce earnings. Currently, there are about 17 million shares outstanding. So, the new shares represent an increase of about 23.5%. In spite of the debt load and the inability to calculate a Fool ratio due to the recent negative earnings, BEAV seems like a stock with some room to (turkey) trot. If the business of outfitting commercial jets is as large as the recent orders to Boeing indicate, then BEAV should prosper. If it does, buyers of the stock at these levels will be thankful they researched this stock early. As always, this is not a recommendation to buy. It is a quick look at some, but surely not all, the factors pertinent to the future of BEAV and its stock price. Do your own homework, then decide for yourselves if this is a stock YOU think will fly. I think it is. As a Fool who hates flying, I'm thankful for the opportunity BEAV gives me to make my assets soar, while I remain safely and comfortably on the ground! |
|||
|
FOOL TAKE -- ONE FOOL'S
OPINION*
MULTIPLE ZONES (NASDAQ: MZON)
One of the beauties of long-term investing is that you can be thankful for a certain stock more than once. At one point I was as thankful as a live turkey on Thanksgiving Day for a company called Multiple Zones (Nasdaq: MZON), and before too long perhaps I'll be thankful again. The company is a direct-retailer of PC products through magazines. It distributes about 29 million copies of its catalogs worldwide, per year. "Multiple zones" refers to sales product "zones" called the MacZone, the LearningZone, and the PC Zone (IBM related). The company is growing earnings at a rate of about 280% annually, and last quarter, the slow summer quarter, sales grew 86% to $109,000,000, and earnings grew 242%. Multiple Zones anticipates a strong fourth quarter -- being the holiday season, of course -- and, more importantly, is on the right track towards a strong 1997. The company earned 24 cents per share last quarter, and 31 cents is anticipated for December; while $1.01 is expected for the fiscal year ending December 1996. The stock trades at about 19 times that estimate. $1.50 is anticipated in 1997, and the stock trades at about 12.6 times that estimate. The P/E on the stock is currently about 25; peer stock MicroWarehouse (MWHS) has been cut down in price significantly lately, and properly, but is still more richly valued than Multiple Zones. While peer CDW Computer (CDWC) is quite ridiculously valued. Multiple Zones appears to be a value play in the industry. The industry's five-year annual growth rate is 14%, but the average price to earnings mulitple in the industry is still about 23. Granted, the industry is expected to grow 24% this year, but not so quickly next year. This is partially why Mulitple Zones' peers appear overvalued to this Fool. While meanwhile, quietly but impressively chugging along, Mulitple Zones has an annual five-year-growth rate of 40% -- and as it now trades at only 19 times forward earnings (which are one quarter away) it trades at a large discount to its growth rate. In fact, the PEG on the stock at $18 3/4 is a mere 0.32, showing it as significantly undervalued. I figure eventually this quiet stock should rise above the "market inefficiencies" again, and I'll be thankful once again to have kept up with the company. But, in fact, I'm already thankful for it right now because, as a Fool, long-term investing is no different than instant gratification.You realize time is on your side, and you appreciate that thought and savor it, like a good Thanksgiving meal. So, I could say I'm very thankful for great stocks such as Cisco Systems and Oracle Corp., as I am; but I'm also thankful for Multiple Zones and other stocks that take some time to prove their "worth" -- even if proving it for a second or third time. Because investing takes patience. And I know, Foolishly, this stock in particular appears to be a good value, and the company seems to be on the right track; while time of course won't stop. So I'll enjoy that time! Have a great Thanksgiving! |
|||
|
FOOL TAKE -- ONE FOOL'S
OPINION*
Philip Morris (NYSE: MO)
A stock that I am quite thankful for is Philip Morris. Although it has been a pretty volatile ride over the last year, investors ballsy enough to add in the high $80s in mid-August have been handsomely rewarded, in spite of the fact that it all seemed pretty grim for tobacco-related shares. The company remains the single cheapest name of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with shares trading at a mere 13.0 times trailing earnings and 11.7 times forward estimates. With a current dividend yield of 4.7 percent and systematic stock buybacks planned for this year that should top the $4 billion mark, the effective yield to shareholder's on this stock is more than 9 percent -- better than most junk bonds. A swirl of social issues cloud the valuation of Philip Morris, making it probably the most perenially undervalued blue chip on the planet. With extensive food and beverage holdings in addition to its core tobacco operations, the company is a diversified conglomerate with an established distribution system that reaches throughout the world. The curious nature of the nondurable consumer goods business allows Philip Morris to make a number products for a penny that it can turn around and sell for a dollar, enabling an incredible cash-generation ability that it a boon to investors. With a solid slug of cash and minimal debt, Philip Morris remains well-capitalized and able to weather all but the most arduous conditions. Although there are many who eschew tobacco stocks out of a misplaced sense of social conscience, creating a wonderful market inefficiency, I remain dubious of the efficacy of such behavior. As long as smoking remains a legal behavior, it ranks with drinking, unsafe sex and high-fat, low-fiber foods as something that people like to do even though it may not be very healthy. All are not very advisable, but for some arbitrary reason none have acheived the level of social stigma that smoking has earned over the past few years. Much like prohibition was all the rage at the turn of the century, after everyone settles down and fully realizes evidence that smoking is not a healthful behavior has been in the medical journals since as early as the 1920s there should be room for some multiple expansion in conjunction with the underlying earnings per share growth and rising dividends. If Philip Morris were in any other line of business, the valuation would probably look a lot more like COCA-COLA (NYSE: KO) or PEPSICO (NYSE: PEP). I think that the stock has room to trade at 14.0 to 15.0 times trailing earnings, which would put us around $122 to $131 per share this time next year. Add to this a dividend boast from the current $4.80 to $5.60 next August and a stock split that will happen at some point in the near-term making this stock part of the Dow Dividend Approach, I believe there is going to be quite a bit of buying over the next few months. Investors should recognize a 25 percent total return including dividends in the shares over the next few months, making them quite thankful for putting Philip Morris in their portfolio. |
|||
|
FOOL TAKE -- ONE FOOL'S
OPINION* Bowlin Outdoor Advertising (NASDAQ: BWLN)
Bowlin Outdoor is a regional leader in the operation of travel centers and outdoor advertising displays dedicated to serving the traveling public in rural and smaller metropolitan areas of the Southwestern U.S. BWLN's tradition of serving the public dates back to 1912 when the Company's founder, Claude M. Bowlin, started trading goods and services with Native Americans in New Mexico. BWLN currently operates fourteen full-service travel centers and one free-standing Dairy Queen/Brazier restaurant along interstate highways in Arizona and New Mexico where there are generally few gas stations, convenience stores or restaurants. BWLN advertises its travel centers through a network of over 300 outdoor advertising display faces. In addition to a variety of unique Southwestern merchandise, BWLN's travel centers offer brand name food and gasoline to the traveling public. BWLN believes that its "co-branding" strategy of offering complementary brand name food and gasoline products results in increased customer traffic and it intends to continue to actively pursue additional co-branding opportunities. The travel services industry includes convenience stores, fast food and gasoline facilities along interstate highways. The recent trend has been towards BWLN's "co-branding" strategy. Market size is $66.3 billion in petroleum sales and $46.8 billion in food and merchandise sales as of 12/31/95, an 8% increase over 1994. The outdoor advertising industry is the most cost-effective media within audience reach and holds a unique ability to target low cost-per-thousand repetitive impressions. The industry is highly-fragmented, which presents opportunity to companies such as BWLN for continued consolidation. In 1995, OOH advertising revenues totaled $3.5 billion, including $2.8 billion in outdoor advertising, an increase of 8.2% over 1994. BWLN's combined revenues total $25 million on 14 full service travel centers, 1 free-standing restaurant and over 1,600 outdoor advertising displays. BWLN holds the CITGO distributorship development rights for the Southwestern U.S. BWLN's intent is to become a regional leader in travel center services and develop a regional network of CITGO dealers. Simultaneously, BWLN intends to become a regional and national leader of outdoor advertising within non-metro markets. These combined strategies will capitalize on increased tourism for both travel center development and outdoor advertising growth. This strategy will be accomplished through the development and acquisition of new travel centers, focus on co-branding opportunities, increased internal growth rate for new outdoor displays, acquisition and development of new outdoor advertising markets and the growing the network of CITGO dealers. BWLN's recently completed IPO will increase visibility and increase financial resources. Acquisitions are expected to drive BWLN's growth rate going forward and the fragmented outdoor advertising industry offers much promise. Interestingly, the President and CEO of BWLN is presently serving as Chairman of the Outdoor Advertising Association of America. Who better to know of the optimal acquisition targets than the guy leading the industry association? I expect BWLN can earn $0.43 in fiscal '98 (Jan) with only the three acquisitions outlined in the prospectus. Industry multiples are all over the place, but are based on after-tax cash flow (ACF). My $0.43 implies ACF of $0.65. Outdoor Systems (OSIA) was recently trading at 50 times prospective ACF. Universal Outdoor Holdings (UOUT) was at 200+, Lamar Advertising (LAMR) at 15 and Ackerley Communication (AK) was at 11. At only $8, BWLN is trading at a mere 12 times prospective ACF with much lower debt than these competitors. I believe BWLN should trade at 15 times and will be able to grow ACF by at least 30% per year implying significant upside for shares. . . and something for which to be thankful for many Thanksgivings to come. |
|||
|
FOOL TAKE -- ONE FOOL'S
OPINION*
Lancit Media (NASDAQ: LNCT)
Somewhere between the cranberry-plantain relish and the pumpkin flan, my attention wanders from the Edible Thanksgiving Table, away from an Underdog float smacking the Macy's storefront, removed from Wayne Fontes coaching his last Thursday football game, and I think of stocks and antacid medicine. I can't think of food companies on a full stomach so I begin to wonder why Lancit Media (LNCT) is trading at new lows. As surely as my son calls for his Skye doll when his eyes grow sleepy, I know that Lancit's "The Puzzle Place" show continues to be the second most popular program on public television behind "Barney & Friends." With a politically correct cast of six multi-ethnic puppets showing that problems can be resolved in harmony (why, even the dog and cat on the show are friends), it is the kind of children's programming everyone from parents to legislators to commercial networks are grateful for. Lancit produces "The Puzzle Place" with KCET in Los Angeles, so the royalty stream has and will continue to be split between the two parties. Lancit's other property, "Reading Rainbow," is fully owned but despite being critically acclaimed and a regular at the Emmy's podium, it has limited merchandising possibilities. Let's face it, there is not much of a market for LeVar Burton book-toting action figures. Investors seem to be fixed on the rear-view mirror and like an incompetent plumber are missing the pipeline. The company believes that they may have at least six shows on the air by next Thanksgiving. They are working with Sony on a cartoon series based on the "Lemmings" computer game. They are teaming up with Smithsonian for "Seekers." They have the movie rights to the best-selling children's novel "The Giver" and have licensed it out to Jeff Bridges' production company. They are also developing televised content based on everything from Broderbund's "KidPix" software line to the popular "Danger Guys" books. The big winner looks to be "Backyard Safari" which will feature Jonathan Winters as the voice of the 3-D animated host. Unlike "Reading Rainbow" and a lot like "The Puzzle Place," these new projects have lucrative merchandising angles. With a content heavy portfolio, Lancit may have been faulted that they weren't connected to outlets beyond their public television stronghold. That all changed last month when Discovery Channel bought a stake in Lancit. As Discovery gets ready to launch their 24-hour Discovery Kids network, Lancit should be a major provider of programming for the new venture. While Lancit bled red ink this year investing in new content, it earned $0.20 a share last year on "The Puzzle Place" licensing deals alone. Once more shows come online the royalties should follow. Why the stock is trading at less than half of where it was a year ago is perplexing enough to be "The Puzzle Place" fodder. Maybe too many investors were hoping for a Dreamworks buyout at $22 a share. Still, the future looks bright and, yes, there was a "Puzzle Place" float at last year's Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Now, where'd I leave that bottle of Tums? |
|||
|
FOOL TAKE -- ONE FOOL'S
OPINION*
Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV)
LUV, better known as Herb Kelleher's Southwest Airlines, is certainly one of my most prized stocks and one for which I am very thankful. I am sitting here pondering LUV as my husband is in a flight simulator training for a Captain upgrade at Southwest Airlines. My thoughts wander...how thankful we are to have this chance....how thankful we are to be working for Southwest and Herb Kelleher.....how thankful we are to be a part of a company that is financially strong and has had the foresight to grow slowly and carefully in the fast-paced, dog-eat-dog, airline business of today. I do not claim to be any sort of stock analyst; however, I have experienced some of the inner workings of this company. I witness daily the results of employees who enjoy their jobs, employees believing in and trust their CEO, employees who gave up substantial pay increases in exchange for shares of Southwest stock. The emotional side of investing, the wise say. Does this count? In my humble little "Mom-Pilot-Wife-Fool" book, it does. How can any company be successful for any amount of time unless their employees are treated with dignity and respect? In my opinion, it can't. Will Herb last forever and will this company remain steadfast? To hear Herb tell it...yes and yes. To be realistic, we are quite aware that the Wild Turkey (how appropriate at Thanksgiving) drinkin', cigarette smokin', directly on the lips kissin' Herb won't be around forever. But he cares enough for his employees to have a replacement trained. His legacy will live on. The numbers? Last price: Closing 11/22/96 25.25, 52-Week High 33.25, 52-Week Low 20.62, P/E Ratio: 16.0, EPS 1.47, Price/Earnings 15.5, Price/Sales 1.0 Corporate Performance 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 As Fools who follow the airline industry (or to be more exact...those of us who taxi into MF Wings hangar on a daily basis, so appropriately named Fool Air ) know, the aviation fuel prices are eating away at any airlines profits. LUV is certainly no exception. Additionally, maintenance costs are up (no skimping here) and LUV is expanding to the east...slowly. Do I feel confident about my LUV stock? For the long term...ohhhhh yeah! As we used to say in my hometown of Amarillo, Texas, "Just squat and watch!" LUV will keep us together...right Captain Dick? Happy Thanksgiving everyone! MF Sharon |
|||
|
FOOL TAKE -- ONE FOOL'S
OPINION*
US Robotics (NYSE: USRX)
When asked to write a short piece on a stock that I was thankful for, I immediately thought of my first "10-bagger." Oh sure, I've had a few other of the fabled 10-baggers and quite a few doubles and triples since, but your first will always be the most special. I first bought the USR's stock three years ago. Being on the younger end of the Foolish spectrum, it was exactly the second stock I had ever bought. The reason I bought it was simple; all my computer geek friends were having dreams about owning a USR modem. Owning an external courier modem was almost a status symbol in the old BBS and internet world back then. Knowing very little about the company's financial health, I simply invested in a company that obviously had the best products in an exploding industry. I'm grateful I was also lucky enough to know people who worked at U.S. Robotics. Over a few brews, I would listen to my buddies endlessly babble about how their DSP/software based modems were better than the off-the-shelf commodity chip modems all their competitors were putting out. My buddies worked late and on the weekends but didn't seem to mind. The strange thing was they did not think twice about working their butts off because management treated them well. There is much to be thankful for in quality management and treating employees as valued people. In the mere three years I've held the stock, I've watched the revenues grow from $189 million to $1.9 billion this year. Next year revenues are expected to top $3 billion. The company is aiming to have $5 billion in sales by the turn of the century. Simply amazing if you think about it. I've also watched the company create over 5,000 jobs in the suburbs of Chicago. Forget downsizing, this company has been a godsend to the local job market. I guess what I've done is taken a page out of Philip Fisher's book, Common Stocks, Uncommon Profits. I've watched the company grow like kudzu all around me, spoken with extremely competent management, talked with in-touch customers, and chatted with happy employees. The fact the company has working capital, quarter-over-quarter sales, and receivables questions is almost meaningless to me. Sure, I love to run PEGs and program balance sheets as much as the next Fool, but the reasons I bought and continue to hold the stock have not changed. While I don't expect the stock to go up another 1,000% in the next three years, I know the company will continue to grow and prosper. When the company does well, the stock goes up. It's such a simple concept that it often gets lost in the haze of financial and technical analysis. I'm extremely thankful for USRX. Like holidays, it holds a special place in my heart and portfolio. |
|||
|
FOOL TAKE -- ONE FOOL'S
OPINION*
Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT)
You won't see Microsoft on many fund managers or stock pickers lists this Thanksgiving, but it's on mine and it will stay there. Why do I feel blessed to own this stock? Microsoft is what some would call my little old lady stock of the 90's... buy and hold and don't look back. In six years, my initial investment is up tenfold and more. That's a lot to be thankful for. I am thankful for Microsoft because it will put my son, and probably my daughter, through college. At a time when college costs more than the combined wishful thinking of every Wise financial advisor on the planet, I'm grateful that my children will benefit from the Microsoft Tuition plan. Sure, if the Justice Department and z(j)ealous lawyers have their way, the stock might dive. But it would have to dive a whole lot before I sold mine. And my son (but maybe not my daughter) would still be going to college on the Microsoft Tuition Plan! Oh, and while I'm being thankful for stocks, let me tell you about the Corcodilos Retirement Fund. It's a small, little known company called Intel. A friend and I refer to Microsoft and Intel as our Wintel Fund. We agonize that our friends won't buy in with us. But we celebrate privately and enjoy one another's good fortune. It's nice to have something good to share with a friend. And I'm grateful to be able to share my Thanksgiving stock with fellow Fools this year. Best wishes for a prosperous Thanksgiving in 1997, too! Nick Corcodilos (NBGroup) |
|||
| * A Fool Take represents the opinion of one Fool and in no way should be taken as the opinion of either the Motley Fool, Inc., the company in question or representative of anyone or anything else other than that specific Fool's thoughts. | |||
|
|