IOMG In Fooldom Today
IOMG In Fooldom Today
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Iomega was up $4 1/8 Wednesday, closing at $24 1/8 (+20.63%). TODAY'S RECAP: Iomega's market cap jumped by half a billion dollars Wednesday on news that its short position had increased in September to more than 25 million shares. This figure is up more than 10% since August, and makes IOMG the second-most-shorted stock on the Nasdaq exchange. Talk of short squeezes and panic covering were the rule of the day in The Motley Fool's Iomega Folder, along with the usual giddiness one would expect from a rally of this size. Wednesday also marked the sixth straight trading day without a loss for the intrepid removable storage manufacturer from Roy, Utah. These are heady times for any Iomega shareholder, but the euphoria is tempered by some very stark memories of the withering decline suffered in the aftermath of the last great Iomega rally. The lessons learned from that nearly 80% collapse have led many Fools to adopt a philosophical tone in their messages posted to the board. INDEX: (Use the Search or Find feature of your word processor to locate the article number [Find: 1++, 3++, etc.]--or use AOL's Edit>>Find in Top Window Feature. If Find in Top Window is dimmed, just click on some text, anything, in the IOMG Today window and try again.)
1++MF Ricster reports the short interest numbers. And now, the Best of the Board... Started 3 a.m. 9/25/96. |
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Subj: Re:Short Interest Date: 96-09-25 08:14:57 EDT From: MF Ricster
<<New York Times this morning said IOMG had second largest short position on the NASD with 25.2 million shares open.>>
According to this morning's Wall Street Journal, Iomega was a close second to Staples at 25,230,367 shares. (Staples' short position was 25,456,924, an increase of more than 20 million since August.) IO's increase from August was 2,780,643 shares, which was the fifth largest increase for the month in terms of number of shares.
IO's average daily volume was listed as 3,711,209, giving it a short interest ratio of 6.8. According to the WSJ, that means it would take nearly seven trading days to close out the short position. (However, since volume figures on the Nasdaq supposedly overstate the actual number of shares bought or sold, it seems to me that the number of days needed to close this position would have to be higher.)
MF Ricster 2+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: THEY HATE US Date: 96-09-25 09:12:04 EDT From: LRiley9900
They really, really hate us.
IOMG is the #1 pure short position on Nasdaq again this month.
Although Staples has a higher short interest, the shares represent a hedge position set up by arbitrageurs playing their merger with Office Depot.
As of September 13, IOMG has 25% of its float short. Only ~63 million shares have been counted as traded since then. Divide that number by 3 or 4 to get the actual number of shares that have actually moved from one investor to another since then, and you get ~21 or 16 MM shares. There is NO WAY a significant dent has been made in the ~25MM shares short. We are going a lot higher.
Remember, ~2.8MM shares were shorted at prices under **$16*** in the 8/15-9/13 reporting period.
BTW, shares offered at $21 1/4 on Instinet. You bears better get em WHILE YOU CAN.
Have fun,
Louis
PS. Wheres Dcenturian and Dickerson? I see Dickerson finally got even on Telephone yesterday. Meanwhile were all getting RICH. HA! 3+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: New OEM? Date: 96-09-25 09:25:39 EDT From: Deanster2U
New issue of PC Magazine has ads for Zenith Data Systems Desktop Computers. High end machine includes an IO Zip drive! 4+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: a coupla predictions Date: 96-09-25 10:43:08 EDT From: Bigfootmm
It's time for some predictions from AstroFool
MF Ben: In early October a block of cheese in a bag will fall from a tall stone building and miss you by inches. Written on the bag are the words: "air mail delivery, hubba hubba. Cheers." On the cheese is written, "Malice Free."
Cynicalguy: Your heart will become temporarily arrhythmic. An old Navy pal listens to it and tells you that in Morse code your heart seems to be whispering, "3Q9cents, 3Q9cents, 4Qbig, 4Qbig,...."
MF Jeanie: Mr. Kalt will begin to call you. IO wants to know what to do with 140 million dollars. "Should we get on TV?" you are asked. The zeros on your brokerage statement will one day cause your husband to faint.
BLBREW: Your brother will wink at you and tell you that he thinks you are backward compatible.
Schlepper: You will learn that the the Cult of the Swan actually exists. Its members approach you to join. You say, "Git, before I goose you with this mop."
Kevinfurr: You will give up jets and start flying dirigibles so you can get more sleep.
HYPEMENOT: By early 1997 you understand that your a putz, as Huibs has counseled you. By June you start buying IO and eventually retire to Aruba to write your autobiography, "Never Say Dye." You thank Huibs in the credits. 5+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: My take Date: 96-09-25 19:55:34 EDT From: MF 2Aruba
Fools,
I would like to be the first to say what I said people would say, so I'm going to say what I need to say.....(got that??)
Congratulations to those who held on through the miserable downtrend!
There! I said it. Yes, I know, I am risking getting slapped by a certain Eturkey for being over-enthusiastic, but I think this is long overdue. I have said that the stock was as undervalued in the teens as it was (hindsight) overvalued at $55.
The difference now, in my opinion, is that we are climbing on real expectations and news ie. BIOs, OEM's, etc. I feel that we are rising on substance, not hype.
Each time I got stomach cramps from looking at my portfolio, I kept myself from calling my broker to jump ship by reminding myself, once again, why I invested in IOMG. The answer to that question is always the same. In March of '95, I invested because the products and the company excited me. They still do! I rode it up, I took some out for toys, and then...I rode it down. I now intend to ride it back up...and buy some more toys!
This time, I foresee the story to be a bit different. I will say again that I am focussing on 4th quarter. Why not? KE seemed to imply that they are looking to 4th quarter, and that's good enough for me. That is when IO should be reaping the rewards of the OEM deals, have the laptop Zips out, and who knows what else.
Look, last year it was the pool, and this year my wife wants a new bathroom. So, when IO hits my target (No, I'm not telling you what that is!), I will take a bit out and buy it for her, along with some other nice things...for me!
My only question...is it tacky to put a bronze plaque in a bathroom? Hmmmm....IOMG '97 ? Works for me!
I'm MF 2Aruba... ...but I still am...
Off2Aruba 6+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: High-volume momentum. Date: 96-09-25 20:01:09 EDT From: TomGardner
High-volume momentum. . . it's exciting. It draws exclamation points in the message folders. It makes for a thrill ride. And anyone who thinks there was too much enthusiasm one way in the $40s must certainly note the peaking enthusiasm the other way with the stock trading at 1.5x sales, or $15 a share.
This is playing out like one of those Rocky boxing matches. Options players and the SOES bandits race one way. . . then they race t'other. And the huge volume in trading is just precisely what the marketing team (the institutional side) sought.
We haven't traded this issue once since purchasing it in May, 1995. In that time, we've watched the stock race from one triple-witching day to the next. The book that needs to be written about Iomega is only peripherally about The Digital World and the new opportunities for private investors. . . the real story here, I believe, is about the options activity in this stock which certainly has been driving pricing volatility far more than company news. Gone are simple pronouncements about the rapid, equal flow of information and efficient pricing in the marketplace. It doesn't seem to have very much to do with the fundamental business as with those strike-price dates.
Try as I might, I can't label that anything but pricing manipulation. I think that's becoming the story here. The great scrutiny of this issue is driving far more pricing fluctuation than the business developments warrant.
Iomega is now trading around 2.5x reasonable sales estimates for fiscal 1996. I would caution anyone that thinks we're about to witness a sparkling quarterly report and is hoping for short-term gains off the short-term fundamentals to re-think their position. I continue to believe that Iomega is in position to have a blowout Christmas quarter and to *continue* to dominate the storage industry---even while it is casually associated with (gasp) the Comparator Systems by those Wall Street watchers too busy to research business and too competitive to write what might support mass communications.
Should be educational as always. But I think the story now is the Options Game. It's a short-term pricing game that reaches far across the equities market and jams it with volatility. . . when again, The Fool believes the broadest segment of investors in America are best served by low-commission, long-term business investing. One of the battles here is between this short-term paper trading approach and the long-term business analytical investment. How the regulators deal with what looks like pricing manipulation to me should be fascinating.
Fool on.
Tom Gardner 7+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Toshiba? Date: 96-09-25 20:45:24 EDT From: MF Jeanie
From Computer Retail Week (9/25/96)
Sounds like confirmation of the Nikkei Shimbum article, maybe?
<< OEMs including NEC and Toshiba plan to introduce notebook PCs with the latest Zip drive in early 1997.>>
FWIW, Computer Retail Week is the same publication that first broke the IBM OEM news.
...and from the same article, something that was posted earlier on these boards:
<< (Iomega) struck up a similar agreement recently with Sony for a new 2G-byte Ditto tape drive, but Sony, a bitter rival of Matsushita in Japan, backed out of the deal.>>
Jeanie 8+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Re:Toshiba? Date: 96-09-25 20:49:29 EDT From: MF DTurkey
<<<Sounds like confirmation of the Nikkei Shimbum article, maybe?
<< OEMs including NEC and Toshiba plan to introduce notebook PCs with the latest Zip drive in early 1997.>>>>>
Depends on where Computer Retail Week got their info from. If they found their own source, then it could be confirmation. If they're just parroting what they read on the Nikkei Web site or on the Fool boards, then it's still a one source rumor.
Dan 9+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Re: Bootup A Drive Date: 96-09-25 21:27:03 EDT From: MF DTurkey
<<<Is it possible that a jaz drive could replace the hard drive by being able to boot up directly. Everyone in the family could have all their stuff on the new 2 gigs. Computer makers could get rid of the internal hard drive.>>>
Is it possible? Yes. I had an internal hard drive go down last month at work, and spent 2 weeks booting my Mac up off either a 1GB Promax Jaz drive or a 4GB Promax Jaz setup.
Is it practical? No. Will computer makers start making computers with no internal hard drive? Probably not. The basic computer setup for the masses has to be idiot proof and as reliable as possible, and constantly swapping bootup drives and moving disks around isn't the best basic setup.
Dan 10++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Re:Squeeze Continues... Date: 96-09-25 22:24:28 EDT From: MF Ben
<<<* John Murphey on CNBC said this puppy is likely headed toward next resistance level of $30 in the short term then to $34>>>
ChiChiX,
As much as my portfolio loves the price rise, just as I did not listen to CNBC price "targets" during the downdraft, I won't now either.
The main problem with investing is only believing the information and news you WANT to believe. Sometimes its hard to face bad or not completely positive news but it really doesn't make sense to belittle a TA analyst one day then worship him the next because him opinion changes closer to your own wishes.
Jumping in with short-term (or long term) price targets, news forecasts, etc. NOW, is, in my opinion, nothing more than what I call momentum posting.
Yup, momentum posting, that phenomenon where some posters feel the need to jump in and prove their "accuracy" and "abilities" by making predictions when the temperature starts to rise and the action begins. Some even repost their own posts to "prove" themselves. I don't think they would like full accountability of every prediction though. "Bears" seem to do it on the way down, "Bulls" on the way up. Where are they on the other side? Playing down the older stuff.
What "I cannot even begin to fathom, I must admit, is the belief I have seen posted that connects the sudden and most appreciated rise in the stock price to greater expectations for a Q3 EPS. I fail to see how one reflects the other based on the news that seems to have triggered the rise (earnings downgrade, Zip license, and short interest).
Iomega's stock going up doesn't sell a thousand more Zips in Europe. (forget the marketing potential of the newspaper articles <G>!)
So, while my portfolio loves these days, my mind remembers the volatility inherent in short squeezes, that eventually most of the shorts will cover and the price support will decline to some level lower though who knows how much. However, while I would love my growth stock holdings to move on consistent earnings and revenue growth numbers, I know it ain't so.
Growth stock can move quickly and this one is redefining the word "quick." I don't confuse "quick" with "healthy" though.
Call me what you wish, but I don't want to forget the lessons learned (the hard way) in May and June so quickly.
I won't suddenly rely on CNBC analysts and guests just because I like what I hear just as I won't believe some outlandish posts here just because I want to believe them. I do WANT to. but then I remember June and July (and sanity and logic) and say "Why should I believe some random price target only made by some hypster when the stock started moving again?"
Momentum posting. Just say "So?"
Benjamin
P.S. I gotta agree with JonTara. Institutions buy bigger blocks than 1,500 shares and there were NOT that many big blocks today. I don't think today's buying was institutions but SOES, retail, and day traders. All three spell "volatility." The public evidence, therefore, contradicts those claiming to "know" that funds bought today. 11++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: New Rebate for Jan 31, '97 Date: 96-09-25 22:47:27 EDT From: Wychern
A few days ago my wife picked up a new Iomega rebate form from Computer City in Framingham, MA. I'm surprised nobody mentioned this earlier, too caught up with the recent volatility, I suppose. The new rebate program is for purchase to be made from October 1, '96 to Jan 31, '97. Requests must be received by February 15, '97. Offers only good for ZIP10011, ZIP10012, ZIP10341. (3 different types of ZIP drive?). No kidding. Check for yourself.
ZIP Drive Offer: Either a "Game Pack-to-Go" containing -Deluxe ZIP drive carrying case and -Iomega Game Pack, a bundle of some of the hottest games on the market Or a $50 rebate.
ZIP Disk Offer: Either a "Net Stuff Organizer" containing -2 ZIP caddies and -Offline web browser and multimedia organizer Or a $20 rebate
Iomega appears to go all out to push for more ZIP sales. Good for solidifying the user base and killing off competitors before making their appearances. As for impact on revenue, Q3 will provide hint.
Chern & Burn 12++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Re:IO and Humility Date: 96-09-25 23:47:15 EDT From: MF ETurkey
HYPEMENOT:
<<<And for those posters who, in the last few days, have rejoiced in the presumed pain and losses of others, instead of having the good sense and basic decency to simply ENJOY the improvement in YOUR OWN financial well being, all you have done is bear witness to your own vanity and immaturity. Clearly, the difficult events and turmoil of the last 3-4 months, which should have been highly instructive, have taught you nothing.>>>
While I disagree with many of the fundamental observations about iomega that have been discussed, I could not possibly agree more with you here. Well said.
I have noticed over the last few months that you rarely talk stock price, (unless baited to do so by others) and concentrate on fundamentals, albeit from the bearish side. I figure that if iomega has problems, you're going to find them. I think it's good to have such people around.
Those who have suffered, either going up or going down, ought to know better by now.
Eric 13++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Re: All On the Same Coaster Date: 96-09-26 02:39:39 EDT From: AnnaK20836
Perhaps some of you are only spectators, but most of us chose to get on this rollercoaster TOGETHER. Some got on early and decided to sit up front where they can feel the wind in their face and experience the full excitement of the peaks and dips. Some of us reluctantly got on at the end with fear of heights and weak stomachs. We ALL got on nevertheless. Some really never believed in the structural integrity of the coaster and wanted only a short ride, preferably only down. Others, equally at odds with reality, wanted a long ride to the top and beyond, never again to come back to earth. Considerations and (frequently) logic aside we ALL got aboard.
And now it deja vu all over again. Same rollercoaster, new ride. There is a different crowd and a dissimilar diversity of personal inclinations--some want the short rides, others long ones. Some want the ups and can't stand the ride down. Others long for the swift plunge downward. As for the rollercoaster, the inclinations remain the same. Enjoy the ride. Be cordial to the ones sitting in front of you, behind you, and beside you. Yes, you may scream or laugh. Do not ridicule other passengers because they are more afraid than you. Do not moon your fellow passengers or make fun of them for sitting in the wrong seats or for being stupid for preferring the dips to the hills. Maximize your benefit of the experience. Disembark when it is appropriate to do so.
End Report. Posts covered through 3 a.m. 9/26/96. ANOTHER FOOLISH THING: It doesn't float or blow in the wind, but it's still our flagship news product. Have you read The Evening News lately? Offering you Tomorrow's News Today, this is the fastest market wrap-up available, covering the industries and stocks that fascinate most Fools. Enjoy the wit and insight that has made the Evening News the most popular daily of its kind. Each issue highlights those stocks which moved most significantly during the day and also offers an in-depth look at a company, industry, or investing issue, penned by our own inimitable MF Templar. Regular reading of the Evening News is a fun and painless way to gain an investment education. You'll can access the Evening News (and its sister publication, The Lunchtime News) from our main screen. If you'd prefer to have it automatically e-mailed directly to you each evening, then subscribe in FoolMart -- only pennies per day! (We also offer a great combo deal for both the Lunchtime and Evening News.) _________________________________________________________ ADVERTISEMENT: Investor's Business Daily (IBD) is America's fastest growing large circulation newspaper. Founded in 1984, IBD is now considered by many of America's top investors and business leaders to be the most comprehensive source of decision-making information available today. No other newspaper can offer the insight you'll find in IBD's coverage of business, the economy, stocks, bonds, futures, mutual funds, options, and more. Why not take a look for yourself and see why over 700,000 investors and business readers make Investor's Business Daily one of their first reads of the day? Get 2 FREE weeks of Investor's Business Daily and a valuable audio tape.
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Written and compiled by MF Numbers,
MF Cheeze and
MF Jeanie. |
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