|
|
|
|
Monday, November 11, 1996 Iomega was down $1 Friday, closing at $24 3/8 (-3.94%). TODAY'S RECAP: It was Tek-Head Weekend in the Iomega Folder, as the geekily-inclined among us tried to determine just how Iomega's new "n.hand" device might be put to use when it eventually hits the consumer market, perhaps some time next year. Digital photography seemed a favorite prospect among our contributors, and the speculation as to how it all might fit together occupied a considerable space on our boards. There has also been quite a bit of anxiety expressed over Iomega Marketing VP Tim Hill's recent sale of shares, which according to late reports, amounted to nearly 95% of his holdings. Fools will be checking with Iomega Investor Relations today (Monday) to learn more about the nature of the reasons for this large sale. A REMINDER: Iomega is now trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol IOM. We, the Iomega-obsessed who subscribe to America Online, are grateful for the change, as we now no longer have to type in the letter "G" when we check Quotes & Portfolios... thus saving us hundreds of keystrokes each day! INDEX: Use the Search or Find feature of your word processor to locate the article number (Find: 1++, 3++, etc.) -- or use AOL's Edit>>Find in Top Window Feature. If Find in Top Window is dimmed, just click on some text, anything, in the IOM Today window and try again.
1++Rum Doodle discusses n.hand and its relation to the future growth of
Iomega. And now, the Best of the Board...Started 3 am ET 11/8/96.
1+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Re:Future Of Iomega Date: 96-11-08 14:00:03 EST From: Rum Doodle
<<but from an average consumer's point of view, I got the impression that my home is simply going to need a zip drive for lots of new reasons soon.>>
Jeanie,
KE used a key phrase this morning in describing n.hand -- he called it an "enabling technology." An enabling technology is one that perpetuates itself by helping to create other, often seemingly unrelated, uses and products. How about a general-purpose PDA/ n.hand / refrigerator magnet. :-)
On a not-unrelated note, the more I think about the fact that the chief technology officer at Iomega -- Doug Clifford -- is a long-time HP R&D hand, the more intrigued I am. First off, HP has built a monster business by creating enabling technologies in its test & measurement, computing, hardcopy and communications organizations. Clifford, I'm sure, brings with him much of that HP culture, one that's characterized by a drive to "capitalize in unprecedented ways on core competencies." (I'm quoted Joel Birnbaum, head of HP Labs -- Clifford's former boss -- from his recent speech to security analysts)
I'm also reasonably sure, but can't prove and have no way of knowing, that Clifford probably maintains close ties with his former colleagues at HP, and has been deeply influenced by the HP way of innovating across boundaries of core competencies. One doesn't spend 28 years at a company -- in R&D no less -- without establishing many meaningful professional relationships, in this case with many of the brightest minds in a number of fields. HP's core competencies are quite broad, and HP Labs are working on the cutting edge of several fast-growing technologies.
Anyway, jumping ahead, what I find so intriguing is that the leader at HP Labs, Birnbaum, has publicly stated that he expects that the FIRST MAINSTREAM KILLER APPLICATION FOR HOME COMPUTING could be digital photography. And HP, perhaps more than any other company in the US besides Kodak, stands to benefit by this. HP is building and developing printers and paper that will created prints with the quality of a one-hour photo shop at a fraction of the price, for use in the home. Think of it. HP intends to put the one-hour photo shop out of business. All they need is a way for consumers to cheaply and easily get their photos into the new HP printers that are coming along.
So they partner with Kodak on the camera side...
<<"HP believes digital imaging represents the next big growth area for the computer industry," said Antonio M. Perez, general manager of HP's Inkjet Products Group. "Kodak and HP together bring unparalleled brand recognition, complementary distribution channels and leadership in the photographic and PC industries." Under the scope of the alliance, HP will work with Kodak to develop a range of solutions for the digital-imaging market....>
... and partner with... who?... on the "film" side. What medium would best suit HP, the HP which is now a photo-processing /developing company? Well, let's see, Clifford -- one of the Binbaum boys from HP -- just happens to the be new chief technology officer at this upstart storage e company out in Roy, Utah....
Ah well, this is all speculation. I leave it to others to follow further down this trail. :-)
Rum 2+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Tim Hill - Facts vs. Fancy Date: 96-11-08 15:16:45 EST From: HYPEMENOT
While this subject was discussed ad nauseum 5-6 days ago, given IOs new product announcements and the fact that there continue to be occasional posts that, without any basis in fact, keep trying to put a benign face on this 240,000 share insider sale, I think further discussion of this matter is appropriate.
First, I have seen several posts that suggest Mr. Hill may have been forced to sell these shares because his options were about to expire. Given that he joined Iomega in July of 1994, this explanation is entirely precluded by the realities of IOs stock option plan(s), which provides that in the case of both types of options which can be granted (incentive and non-statutory) the holder has 10 years in which to exercise.
Next, there has been at least one post that suggested Mr. Hill may have needed to sell 240,000 shares now (involving proceeds of more than $5million) to pay for capital gains taxes on PRIOR sales. This isnt even worth talking about. If Mr. Hill did make any prior insider sales (which I doubt, since there has never been any discussion of it on the board) they certainly would not have been of a magnitude that would create a substantial tax liability (keep in mind that prior to this year, the adjusted high in IOMG was less than $9 a share, so that even a 100,000 share sale would have generated a profit at the max of $750,000).
Third, and most important, Iomegas new product announcements have spawned a number of posts which attempt to rationalize the fact that Mr. Hill sold the 240,000 shares just two weeks prior to what has now been described here dozens of times as HUGE POSITIVE NEWS. While these explanations rate highly for their inventiveness and creativity, IMO they have little or no foundation. The explanation cited most frequently is TORTURED to say the least. The reasoning goes as follows. First, there is an assumption that Hill had some reasonably pressing reason to sell over the nearer term (an assumption that may be supportable, but has no identifiable basis in fact). Next, it is pointed out that Hill could not properly sell before any impending bad news. Fair enough, but what bad news is likely, that would have precluded a sale AFTER the announcements of the 12.7mm notebook Zip and the n. hand? After all, everyone knows that IO is now past the challenging summer quarter, and into the seasonally strongest period of the year! Well now comes the most INVENTIVE part, namely that Hill (apparently) deliberately sold heading into the good news so as to eliminate any potential legal questions. This explanation deserves a 100 grade for HUMOR, and a FAILING grade for substance and relationship to the real world.
I am an insider in a small public company, and I know the rules. There are dark periods where insiders cannot buy or sell, such as prior to earnings releases and the disclosure of other significant announcements (positive or negative). But once these events have been publicly disclosed insiders are, after brief waiting period, are free to engage in purchases or sales. The waiting period is, as I understand it, not a hard and fast legal matter. A conservative lawyer might advise an insider to wait as much as a week, while another might feel that two days was adequate time for the news to permeate the market.
I think, notwithstanding the inventiveness of numerous posters, the conclusion to be drawn from this is that Mr. Hill did not believe that the impact of the new product announcements were such that they could or should move IOM shares significantly higher (at least over the near term). For those who find this hard to understand I suggest that you read the recent detailed, and REALISTIC discussions of the n. hand posted by MF Ben and the similar, but briefer commentaries posted by BoccaLu and JonTara.
HYPEMENOT . 3+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Baby Zip Date: 96-11-09 08:40:36 EST From: RSchoensta
Here are some thoughts to add to the baby zip stew.
( I vote for Baby zip instead of n.hand. It's not my idea. But the baby zip has a carriage. And we want everyone to adopt the baby zip. And it is a zip of sorts.)
1. If successful this would be huge. It's a great idea. 2. If successful, this would give OEM's added reasons to include the zip as standard equipment on their computers. 3. If successful it would help protect the zip from the competitive threat posed by DVD-R. 4. Success is far from certain. Compare to the zip. The zip fulfilled a real need. The baby zip fulfills a real need. However. Iomega was able to market the zip directly the consumer. Iomega was not dependent upon the decisions of others. However this is not the case with the baby zip. For this to be successful camera companies, cellular phone companies, pda companies must decide to adopt the baby. To understand the difference compare the explosive success of the aftermarket zips marketed directly to the consumer vs. the slow painful progress to get OEM's to include the zip in their machines. 5. This is a far more risky decision for these companies then for computer OEM's. I would think that including the zip in an OEM box requires zero to minimal design changes. In those case Iomega designs it's product to a standard form. For companies adopting the baby it would require each product be designed specifically to accommodate the baby. 6. Success is far from certain. As noted above Iomega must depend on other companies for the baby zip to succeed. In the case of the digital camera we are talking about a replacement for film. This is an enormous market. And it's a market in which I would think a lot of heavy weights are involved. Some of these companies may be directly involved in making the cameras, pda's, etc. So they will have an incentive to provide their own solution. Companies like Kodak which depend on film will be fighting very hard to make sure that they make the replacement solutions for film. 7. When you are talking about the replacement for film, the solution has to be perfect or almost perfect. We are talking about something that will possibly be used by tens of millions or hundreds of millions of people. Camera companies will not settle for an ok solution. This is a complicated issue here. There are all sorts of factors that need to be looked at. Most of us using limited information. What I like about the baby zip is that the solution is very similar to film. Popping in a baby zip disk cartridge is just like popping in a role of film. It is a mechanical device. But so is current film mechanism. So long as there was the option for cable transfer of data, the baby zip would provide a far superior means to any solution that was dependent totally on cable transfer. It does seem that the competition is flash memory disks. I believe these would have superior performance in terms of speed. And that may be critical. Also no moving parts. Also although flash memory is expensive now, will it be in the future when the demand for flash cards could be in the hundreds of millions of units. Flash cards could be manufactured to a standard format. Dozens of companies would compete. This would bring innovation. It would force costs down. 8. Here is a positive thought. Right now games come on flash cards I believe. For example Sega and Nintendo. And yet we believe that nintendo is coming out with some sort of zip like game disk. If flash cards are superior why is nintendo coming out with game disk's?
RS 4+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Licensing and YPEG Date: 96-11-09 14:15:38 EST From: PKeeler
Before I value IOM some speculation:
From http://www.cnnfn.com:80/digitaljam/9611/08/intv_edwards/ >>> Other companies are known to be interested in similar technology (Zip drive) and rather than compete with them, Edwards wants them to pay for Iomega's ideas. "What we're really like to do is instead of allowing them to get into this technology is license them one of [our] technology platforms," he said. "We'd be quite interested in doing that." <<<
Was it a coincidence that soon after Matsushita licensed the Zip drive technology, O.R. Technology announced a new production source for LS-120s? Why would one need a production source other than Matsushita for a drive hardly being produced?
I once kidded some Swan fans that Mitsumi could be the next licensee. Why build unknown and probably D.O.A. drive like the UHC 130 when you could simply license the Zip drive? Or maybe n.hand?
If Kodak licensed N.Hand then the two biggest brand names in photography, Fuji and Kodak, would have a direct stake in the success of N.Hand.
From RSchoensta: >>> success of the aftermarket zips marketed directly to the consumer vs. the slow painful progress to get OEM's to include the zip in their machines. <<<
The reason Iomega is so volatile is that people just can't wait. The above is a complete misinterpretation of the situation IMO. 7 months ago the first IDE Insiders appeared in a single HP SKU and as an add on to Micron SKUs. A HP SKU which was set to be terminated in a couple of months when Intel was to terminate the 120 MHz Pentium. 7 months later Iomega has probably shipped 150,000 - 200,000 IDE Insiders. That is great product acceptance IMO, especially when you consider the frugality of the customer.
Back to the "Iomega stock is dead" argument. The stock is up 950% since June '95 ($24 vs. $2.5), 400% since February '96 ($24 vs. $6), 100% since August '96 ($24 vs. $12). There is not a very large list of stocks that can claim those numbers. It is not going to $55 anytime in the next two months. If that's what you waiting for you should rethink or sell.
KE says in the article MRMENSA gave us that his goal is to triple revenues by the end of the decade. If you take him literally he's talking sales of $3.7 Billion. Iomega trades today at a PSR of 2.7. Applying that PSR to $3.7 Billion you would have a stock price of $72 (or simply triple today's stock price) if net margin and shares outstanding and PSR remained constant (which is impossible).
Tripling revenues by the next decade implies growth of 300% over the next 3 years give or take next month. That is annualized 3-year growth of 44%. Using that as a basis for a YPEG calculation you would have (growth) x (1997E eps) = (Fair Value Today).
44 x 0.88 (H&Q,JPM,HDBrous) = $38 3/4
So if you can stomach 59% growth over the next 12 months than don't sell.
PKeeler Patrick Keeler 5+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Re: Why Neg. Cash Flow Date: 96-11-09 21:47:57 EST From: RB61
Valuefirst,
<<Can some one explain what is so positive in the Cash Flow negative strategy in pursuit of growth?
Endless growth that doesn't bring cash doesn't help the situation.>>
Negative cash flow is not a positive. However, the alternative in IOM's situation is worse.
We are well aware that technology does not stand still. We also know that from basic economics, that when a company develops a popular profitable product, other companies are sure to try to imitate that product. We are starting to see this competition at this stage with the LS-120 and the to be announced Mitsumi-Swan drive.
Now IOM could *manage* their growth to where they could easily generate the cash needed internally to fund this *managed* growth. For the 9 months ending Sept 29, 1996 IOM had sales of $815m vs. $177m for the 9 months ending Oct. 1, 1995. This is a rate of growth of 461%. Now if IOM were only growing at a rate of 80% or so vs. 460%, I'm absolutely certain IOM could internally fund their growth. But what are the consequences of this decision? Market penetration would be slowed. OEM adoption would be slowed or non-existent since OEM's are being brought on board due to consumer demand. Finally, and most devastating, competitors would be given the time needed to effectively mount an all out assault on the Zip.
So, for the above reasons, I am more than willing to allow IOM to be cash flow negative to meet their objectives. I am encouraged by KE's remarks that IOM would be cash positive in 1997, subject to growth trends staying at a manageable level.
Fool On,
Robert 6+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Re:Coming Together Date: 96-11-09 21:51:44 EST From: MF DrJimbo
Tyler43064 posted:
<<I've been thinking about the n-hand announcement.....a company like Iomega is not going to pump several millions of research dollars into a product that has no existing application, or in applications yet to be developed. It would not be logical for Iomega to develop this device, bring it to market and then shout to the world "Look at this great gizmo we just spent a gazillion dollars developing...woncha pleeeeeze all include it in your next camera, phone, tv, etc. etc. etc. so that we can recoup some of our investment $$$ and not look like dopes to our shareholders?" >>
This is what you'd like to think.I'd like to think that the promotion with Kodak points to coordination with OEMs already. The truth is that the kind of R&D you describe goes on every day.
I was thinking that if in the Fall of 94, Iomega had announced n.hand, I would have thought it was a good idea for a product, but I never would have invested in the company on that basis. The main reason is that the kind of products that the drive is targeted at is a generally unproven market. Will consumers really abandon film in large numbers for digital imaging? Will smart cellphones and PDAs ever really be a major consumer item? I would wait for the first products to hit the street and then evaluate their quality and the demand. I waited for the first Zips to be shipped before I bought.
Already owning Iomega, I'm looking at the new technology as a good reason to be optimistic about future growth as Zip matures, but I'll wait to see how well the product is received. Interestingly, I think this is how Wall St. has looked at it so far. There's no rush to buy the company based on the product. 7+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: n.hand Devil's Advocate Date: 96-11-10 11:22:10 EST From: MF DTurkey
<<<This n.hand technology could be bigger than any of us could even dream if my suspicions are correct.>>>
In the general euphoria over the announcement of the product, there are 2 things that keep me from doing back flips down Broadway.
First, Iomega has to show they can mass produce the thing at a profit. I don't care how wonderful an idea it is, or how many camera company's come knocking at their door wanting to sign a deal. It's a long step from the drawing board to the production line, and they wouldn't be the first company to come up with a prototype that couldn't be made for a profit.
Second, and a bigger worry, is the price of flash memory. One of the big arguments for the n.hand being a potential hit is that the price of flash memory is so high. But we're talking about a year down the road before the n.hand hits the market. Can anyone here say what will happen to the price of flash memory in the next year? Take a look at what's happened to the price of RAM over the last 12 months. Who would have guessed that a 64MB RAM chip that cost $1,000 or more this time last year could be had for around $400 today?
From the Reuter's news release:
<<< Iomega's plans pose a threat to makers of flash memory chips that are used to store digital information in such small electronic devices currently. Leading makers include Sandisk Corp, Intel Corp and Toshiba Corp. >>>
I'll admit I'm not familiar with Sandisk, but the names Toshiba and Intel do sound familiar. It would be very foolish to assume these company's are going to sit back and let Iomega eat their lunch. Remember, not every company is as incompetent as SyQuest.
When Iomega came out with the Zip, they were entering a whole new untouched market. Except for SyQuest's overpriced fragile stuff, nobody was making low cost removable storage. The camera storage game is not the same. There are already a couple of industry heavyweights there who aren't going to just sit back and watch their investments in flash memory go down the drain.
Dan 8+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: IBM Commercials with Zip Date: 96-11-10 12:58:37 EST From: Haiyaku33
I think what we are seeing with the Aptiva-Zip ads is simply the progressive implementation of the newer ad campaign (which is definitely co-op advertising). Most of the markets have the old tape and run dates have been purchased well in advance; selected (because of high saturation/high density) markets have the new tape and new run dates selected. The next batch of the new tape will go to the second rung on the market density list and so on.
Sounds simple, doesn't it? But... advertising to mass markets takes a great deal of preparation time from actual idea origination to the clerical implementation. In addition, co-op advertising takes even more time...consider the actual filming and approval of the ads by both companies, quantity production then distribution of the tape, and actual airing by the media affiliates).
More importantly, I think that Friday night prime time on Fox (Sliders it was) with IBM is the big issue. We are going mainstream! (uh, Packard Bell's prime time ad's are scary... (the surreal ones) ...what ARE they doing? possibly hitting younger minds than mine?)) I would expect PB to be the next OEM to co-op IOM into their ads and probably hit the student market.
D.G. Singer aka Inmotion33 has a bit of experience in this area! 9+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: N-hand and Digital Cameras Date: 96-11-10 13:20:29 EST From: Arentz65
How big is the Digital Camera market going to be? From what i have read many experts think Digital will eventually supplant film photography. When that will happen? who knows. What i do know is that there is a stampede by traditional camera companies to get in on the Digital wave. Casio, Rioch, Polaroid, Apple and Kodak all have digital cameras on the market while Canon, Pentax, Sony, Samsung, and Yashica are all planning new digital cameras. These companies see the future and it's Digital.
Right now the DC(Digital Camera) market seems to be made up of small niche markets. Those professionals that need a faster turn around on the photos taken than they could normally get with traditional film based products; Real Estate agents take photos of properties, then put those photos either in catalogs or on fliers. Insurance agents/adjusters take photos of accident/loss scenes and upload digital photos along with reports to the office. There are more uses right now but you can see the outline. Digital photography is mainly used by businesses where going through traditional film media simply adds extra steps and expense.
For the consumer market though DC's are just too expensive. DC's costing over $600 are comparable(In image quality and feature set) to film cameras costing under $75. Obviously this high cost to feature set has to change before DC's become a mass consumer item. One aspect of their high cost is storage. Right now the cameras use either internal memory alone or a combination of Internal and some form of removable storage typically a flash memory PC Card. PC Cards as PKeeler has pointed out are expensive. 5Mb cards go for around $200. 5Mb is enough memory to hold around 40 high-res images(640x480 pixels). The average consumer just does not lay down the sort of money we are talking about here.
Also the average consumer I think will have a higher need for removable storage than the average professional. The average professional will be tying into a PC more often than say a family who uses the camera for a weeks vacation. So whereas a business user might get by with the Internal memory or one add on card a consumer might need to fill several add on cards before downloading to a computer. So right now the high price of the camera AND high storage price is keeping the DC out of the mainstream consumer market.
Another hinderance to the DC growing its market is the slow speed in which photos are transferred into a persons PC. Using a serial cable It would take about a half hour to transfer 5mb. This time varies from camera to camera but this seems to be about right for an average time.
Their other failing, low quality of images, is quickly being erased. Each new camera that comes out has better image quality than the one before. Compared to the first DC's that i looked at, the ones today have great image quality(I want one now). With the quality going up and with all the models that are coming out soon 1997 may become the year of the Digital Camera.
So how would the n-hand technology affect the DC market? Obviously there is the huge price advantage. For $10 you could get 20Mb of storage. At these prices storage changes from being a hinderance to market acceptance into an enabling technology. The n-hand would actually help to sell cameras as the cameras would now be more capable than they had been previously.
Then you have speed. Not knowing how fast the n-hand will transfer data clouds this but if you can read the n-hand in a modified zip than i would assume it would be faster than downloading from the camera. Again if true this would add more capability to the cameras(as long as you had a zip).
There are some problems though;
Press releases say 'future' versions of Zip will read n-hand. Does that mean the 200Mb Zip or will 100mb drives be modified to read n-hand. What about the 7-8 million Zip 100's that will be installed by the time n-hand comes out? Most of those people will not want to go out and buy a new Zip just for n-hand compatibility.
I have seen the n-hand referred to as Digital Film. I think this analogy is false. Film once is used is gone forever. N-hand will be reusable hundreds of times. I only see people buying a few n-hand disks. Once pictures are taken they will be downloaded into a PC. N-hand is not a long term storage solution(it could be but no need for it to be).
Eric
Their are other markets for the n-hand, next i look at the PDA market and then expand on the Camera market some more 10++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Obsession with Stills Date: 96-11-10 14:31:33 EST From: MF Ben
I'm going to get off the Zip/Aptiva thread for a minute here...though I think that it is an important consideration...
<<<And at $10 for reusable disks the n-hand meets the criteria for replacing film.>>>
Actually, I must admit that I don't understand the obsession with replacing "film" and still photography. Sure, I see a ton of tourists walking around New York with 35mm cameras and "one-shoots" but I also see many more with camcorders.
OK, I'm the host of The Motley Fool's DTV forum so I'm biased AGAINST still and in favor of video in many ways but that isn't the basis for my arguments.
I see the web going video. First PC life was text based (Zork anyone?) then we got graphics, simple but exciting. The WWW is mostly JPEG and GIF right now but I see that changing rapidly to MOTION, to VIDEO.
JVC and Sony make digital camcorders. The prices are dropping. The tape is CHEAP (linear, ugh...<G>). Per megabyte? Ya don't wanna know. They can also be quite small.
I still believe that in two years most consumer digital "still" photography will be frames grabbed from video.
My initial criticism was and remains that I don't believe the n.hand is the "killer app" for photography. Someone recently posted about an article that used the Zip and jaz as perfect examples of what to dump your digital still camera's stuff onto. I agree.
Does my doubt of n.hand's role in the future of consumer digital still photography -- and my doubts on the autonomous future of digital still photography in the first place -- mean I doubt that n.hand MAY have a large market somewhere? Nope.
I believe that the handheld gaming market can be a very large market for the product.
I wish someone could explain to me the pigeon-holing of n.hand to digital photography. Market size? Growth rates? They don't seem, on the basis of flash RAM market sizes, to be all the impressive.
My problems in a nutshell:
1) We don't know, NO ONE knows, if n.hand will work and be profitable. Don't assume it. 2) If successfully R&Ded, why assume the main market will be digital still photography? 3) There does seem to be a slight shift in focus here for Iomega. I hope any efforts and hours dedicated to n.hand do NOT diminish their focus on making Zip the next floppy. All else being equal, I still believe the Zip as floppy will be IOM's largest market going forward.
Cheers,
Benjamin 11++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Re:Obsession with Stills Date: 96-11-10 15:24:23 EST From: BHaber
Dear Ben,
Whenever I look at some money-making venture, I consider myself as a consumer, first. That's why I invested in IOMG: the Zip was what I needed and revolutionized computing for me. That's all I needed to know. That's just the way I am.
I am hot for both still and vid cams, as both a hobbyist and professional (I earn part of my living as a photographer as well as a digital artist: these two jobs of course combine).
I believe the still cams are going to COST A LOT LESS and remain A LOT SMALLER than the vids for quite a while; certainly plenty of time for the n.hand, or whatever of its ilk (and it's an ilk that is greatly needed and wanted by me, wearing both my hobbyist and pro hats), to be of great value to me. And therefore perhaps to others like me.
While I certainly intend to buy a Sony vid cam soon, I'm not throwing out my Chinon nor my Kodak still units.
Further, I believe that it will take quite a while before vid will have (or need) the RESOLUTION that still cams will have, and not just the pro units. But certainly the pro still units will always have much higher resolution than vids. Pro photography may be a niche, but it's a huge world-wide niche. I've got no problem with that niche, and view that niche as a supplement.
I hope you'll consider these points in your ongoing analysis of things Iomega.
Best,
Blake 12++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Re:n.hand Devil's Advocate Date: 96-11-10 16:01:58 EST From: MCCONATHY
Dan Writes:
<<<I'll admit I'm not familiar with Sandisk, but the names Toshiba and Intel do sound familiar. It would be very foolish to assume these company's are going to sit back and let Iomega eat their lunch. Remember, not every company is as incompetent as SyQuest.>>>
I think its SunDisk not Sandisk. Seagate bought into SunDisk (25% about 3 years if my memory serves me right). As a side note - about that same time a top VP from SyQuest joined SunDisk...he could not stand the mismanagement of SyQuest at the time...and it looked liked mismanagement continued as he predicted, grin!
I saw the new Apple Digital Camera. It uses a flash card. Great quality for what it is. I think it will be awhile before Digital Photography largely replaces film since many want glossy prints to show. That could change as cheaper printers come on stream that are easy to use and affordable. The new little Zip is a good idea but the question remains just how big the market is and how soon it will come around. An ole marketing guy taught me a good lesson several years ago while walking through Comdex...He reminded me that the largest and best market is the products that companies purchase to run their business. A company should not ignore the home and home business market but it will never pay out as big business will and that is were the bigger Zip plays. I have told many people that Zip is Iomega's greatest asset. I predict there will be Apple computers with Zips installed in a few months.
FWIW
Charles F. McConathy ProMax 13++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: n.hand Application List 1 Date: 96-11-10 19:04:03 EST From: NOVWOO
n.hand Application List
For better understanding of a tiny bit of the far-reaching implications that n.hand technology may have for consumer electronic devices and the future of Zip and Iomega the company, please allow me the honor to start the compilation of a list of plausible n.hand applications. The applications may change the way we live. Let's keep track of the list for fun.
Let's start with the ones listed on Iomega news release:
1) Digital Cameras 2) Cellular Phones 3) Handheld games 4) PDA 5) GPS 6) Intelligent Printers capable of printing out digital images directly
Then some of the ideas from this board:
7) Checkbook/Debit/Credit/ATM type of transactions like someone has suggested. Users don't leave home without n.hand disks. The disks can be used at banks or shops equipped with *n.hand Machines*. Users can read or print out the latest transactions or the updated statements with current balances from their own systems equipped with Zip.
8) Advanced Answering Machine (Stand Alone): someone on this board has mentioned.
9) Special Handheld Voice Memo Machine (Random Access Play Back Recording): This has always been in my mind. Portable Digital Voice Recording with Fast Random Access Play Back was not possible with tapes. Disks are random access media. Again, flash memory devices are too expensive and limited here. Random Access Recording/Play Back with n.hand technology may replace Sequential tapes on some applications. The above Advanced Answering Machine is only one of this type of applications. I always want an affordable ($250, with reasonably priced media) portable Voice Memo Machine that has simple search and editing features to capture and organize my ideas and notes wherever I go and whenever ideas come.
10) Voice PDA, extension of 9): (A) With voice recognition available in your desktop system equipped with a Zip drive, you can use the above Voice Memo Machine in the field and automatically transcribe the contents of the n.hand disks into written words and stored in a random database or a wordprocessor in your desktop for further processing. (B) If you prefer to work with voice, you can leave the contents of n.hand disks in voice but use the desktop system to do more advanced editing directly on n.hand disks. This function is possible due to the compatibility between n.hand disks and Zip drives. Whatever feature of the Voice Memo Machine is lacking in the field will be made up for in a desktop machine with the proper software and a Zip drive.
11) An Big Screen Image Viewing Machine using TV like MF Eturkey suggested.
I have more but I am going to stop here. I strongly disagree with someone on this board who said that with the exception of digital cameras we will not use the n.hand technology anywhere we didn't shove in an old 3 1/2 floppy before. The small size of n.hand disk makes a big difference in convenience, its large capacity opens up lots of applications and the much lower price will leapfrog flash memory devices to make new popular consumer products possible. With less than 1/3 of the surface size and about 14 times the memory of the old floppy and selling for less than $10, n.hand disks will open up lots of visions and inventive minds.
To limit n.hand technology to old floppy applications is not thinking. Price and convenience are keys to consumer electronic products. n.hand technology makes a lot of stand alone application specific devices possible for consumers who don't like to tie down to desktop computers all the time.
Just keep in mind the advantages of n.hand technology: Random access; non-volatile; compatibility with desktop or laptop Zip; small size, large capacity and low price of the easy to carry around n.hand disks. I am sure lots of you out there have better ideas than I do. Please feel free to correct me, suggest more usages one idea at a time for fun, or edit and completely change my list if you want.
Maybe one of you will volunteer to keep track and update this list. Obviously not all or any of the items in the previous post and the additions to the list may become products. I am only sure some of them won't, but please have fun exercising your creative minds and exchanging your brilliant ideas if you want. 14++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: External n.hand Drive? Date: 96-11-11 00:06:44 EST From: NOVWOO
A Stand Alone Compact n.hand Drive: A n.hand drive that could be easily attached (plugged in) to the OUTSIDE of a n.technology ready device. This is an idea resulting from my original misinterpretation of the technology described in the news release.
When I read the news release, I noted only the n.hand storage *technology* is to be built into hand-held devices. No mentioning of a *drive* built into any devices. I continued to look for the drive dimensions and there was mentioning of n.hand *disks* but never any drives. So I misinterpreted that to mean the built-in technology was some kind of an interface only. And the n.hand drive is going to be an external drive not to be released to the public yet.
Now I think the announced built-in storage technology is some key mini-Zip drive components: head, disk receiving and spinning/drive mechanisms and drive electronics/Zip chips (Intel, Motorola and TI's jobs?) to be integrated inside the device body to further miniaturize the total overall dimensions of the device. These drive components without an enclosure will be laid out differently in different devices so there may be no well-defined form or size of an internal drive. Hence, no mentioning of an internal n.hand drive because it is to be integrated inside the device body. I did mention this approach as an alternative in my original post. I was off because this INTEGRATED approach is the current one.
Going back to my misinterpretation, my idea of the imagined EXTERNAL n.hand drive is to have electronic/electrical connectors (interface, plug) that will double as mechanical connections. No cables. Quick attach/detach onto the side or bottom of the consumer electronic device. The n.hand ready device only needs to provide the interface (port) and the particular electronic circuits (Intel's or LSI's job?) for its specific application to communicate with the n.hand drive (n.hand technology port). Will add minimal cost to the device itself. The external n.hand drive may have its own batteries or may tap the power from the device through the connectors depending on the application. This external approach will be different from the current built-in approach and could turn out to be another new product with similar applications and additional or complementary applications. This EXTERNAL n.hand drive may work with different devices in different applications.
Another advantage of this common EXTERNAL drive may be the consumer devices utilizing the drive will be simpler to develop once the external drive design and specifications are fixed and made known. The advantage of the INTEGRATED approach may be that Iomega will sell more of these drive *components* and the consumer devices could be kept smaller, and therefore may be why it is currently chosen. That may be also why you find in the news release "devices supporting n.hand technology will be available as soon as the second half of 1997" and will note that it is the *devices* that will be directly available without reading any mentioning of *drive* schedule first. The needed drive *components* should be ready much sooner than that (earlier revenue for Iomega) for consumer device manufacturers to gear up for productions.
I think there may be a good chance of another new product: an EXTERNAL n.hand drive that may or may not be similar to the one I suggested. But what do I know? I am only speculating. 15++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Hard drive parity with Jaz Date: 96-11-11 00:36:36 EST From: JonTara
I've been predicting this for some time, and now it has come to pass:
Conventional hard drives have now achieved price parity with Jaz media. I expect that within the next year, hard drive cost per megabyte will be 50-75% that of Jaz media, even with decreases in Jaz media pricing.
That this price crossover would occur was inevitable, and can only accelerate. IoMega is going to have a hard time cost-reducing a removable drive and media to compete with a sealed unit, as densities spiral ever higher. (Seagate is now producing 22GB drives.)
That's right, you can now buy a complete hard drive, complete with electronics, and have a much faster drive for the same price as the Jaz media alone.
This weekend's CompUSA newspaper insert has a 3.5GB Maxtor IDE drive for $349 (after $30 manufacturer rebate, for the picky). No, 1GB drives aren't at the $100/GB level yet, and may never be, as they are approaching end of life. (e.g. you shortly will not be able to buy drives as small as 1GB).
Here we are, at the point as which the curve crosses-over.
I would expect a move by computer manufacturers to standardize a "pull out drawer" for sub 3.5" hard drives. You can do-this-yourself right now, by buying a drawer kit, though this does add to the cost (but if drives were just built this way, the additional cost would be minimal). A little tweak to BIOSs and the OS is all that would be needed to have us carrying around complete hard drives instead of Jaz cartridges. Of course, for those who do not need portability, it's attractive right now to simply expand hard disk capacity rather than using Jaz or Zip.
It begins to become clear "why" n.Hand - while Zip has a long life ahead of it as a niche product, (but only as a niche product) Jaz's life appears to be cut prematurely short. IoMega needs "the next thing", and n.Hand is it. I have no opinion as to whether or not n.Hand will be a success - it may will be, and if the past is any indicator, probably will - but it should be judged as with any development of new technology - any investment based on n.Hand is a speculative investment. 16++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subj: Re:Hard drive parity with Jaz Date: 96-11-11 01:27:34 EST From: Squidlick
<<That's right, you can now buy a complete hard drive, complete with electronics, and have a much faster drive for the same price as the Jaz media alone.>>
We've been through these arguments before, but since Jon hates to be objective, I suppose I'll have to roll out the old arguments again to be fair:
1. Try carrying that hard drive around with you everywhere. I'd rather just carry a Jaz disk.
2. At what capacity is the hard drive market price-comparable to Jaz? I have about 25 Jaz disks. Do you really want to try to argue with me that me having 12 2.5 Meg Hard disks is a fiscally wise thing for me to do? I didn't think so.
3. With the Jaz I can archive my most important work pretty easily. Have fun keeping that hard drive in your safe. Maybe you'll even have room for some papers and other important things.
Wanna try it again?
End Report. Posts covered through 3 am ET, 11/2/96. _______________________________
WE
DELIVER - Get IOM
In Fooldom Today delivered
|
||||||||||
|
|||||||||||
