|
|
|
|
Thursday, November 06, 1997 Wednesday, Iomega closed at $28 3/4, down $3/16 (-0.65%). TODAY'S RECAP: Speculation continued yesterday over the nature of Iomega's upcoming "big announcement" -- other postsers focused time and energy on SyQuest's SparQ drive, the laptop Zip, Zip limericks, n*hand, Clik(tm) and more. Enjoy! INDEX: Use the Search or Find feature of your word processor to locate the article number (Find: 1++, 3++, etc.) - or use AOL's Edit>>Find in Top Window Feature. If Find in Top Window is dimmed, just click on some text, anything, in the IOM Today window and try again.
1++ WarbearWW comments on the role of short sellers for IOM.
Recap written by TMF Weekly; posts
compiled by TMF Weekly. As always, the following posts represent the thoughts of our contributors, not those of The Motley Fool.
And now, the Best of the Board...Started 9:01pm ET 11/4/97. 1+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: TAKE THE HILL << The shorts are retreating. Their numbers are dwindling. >> Since I am still long most of my IOM, I sure hope this is not the case. Short sellers are the foundation of a major panic-driven melt-up that can drive the stock 10 or more points in a relatively short period of time. Our financial gain is achieved as we trample over thier mangled corpses all the way up. Of course, us longs eat some dust and pick up some footprints as they march over us on the way down. The existance of of a large short position in the stock also provides some healthy bearish sentiment and creates attractive entry points , which would otherwise not exist, for those new converts to the IOM bandwagon. Imagine the frustration of someone who has just bought a Zip drive, fallen in love with it, wants to invest in the stock, and then finds out they have to pay $40 to $50 a share to participate. The shorts keep the price within reason until such time that the fundamentals rout the shorts into oblivion. I LOVE the IOM short sellers. If they are worried now, let them circle the wagons and parachute in fresh reinforcements. As some people found out on the market downside recently, it can be rather difficult to close a position in a stock when panic sets in. All of those borrowed shares need to be bought back eventually. Bring on the shorts, the more the merrier! Bye-the-bye, the shorts also cushion us on the way down as the buy back their borrowed shares to lock in a profit. Happy melt-up, 2+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: VST Laptop ZIP this month Systems: VST set to ship Zip PB module http://www.zdnet.com/macweek/mw_1143/sy_vst.html Today's Macweek says that VST (the other laptop ZIP vendor is CNF) is set to ship its Zip Powerbook module "this month". brief snip: <<T he $349 device, which uses a 15-millimeter version of the Zip drive, will work with PowerBook 190, 5300, 1400 and 3400c models, the company said. >> DaleVelk@aol.com 3+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: "New" ZipUp product? In the PC Connection I just received, there is a product called the ZipUp Mobile Converter. Perhaps someone (or a few) out there could help with a few questions on this: Apparently the product plugs into a type II PC Card slot on a notebook, and allows you to hook up your external Zip drive to your notebook without also having to separately have to plug the Zip drive into another power source. This seems like an ideal solution for me. I have been wanting to buy a notebook computer, but really don't want to pay the huge price a new model notebook that accomodates the laptop Zip will cost. (1) If this product is plugged into my notebook, does that proclude me from also plugging in a modem card or other type PC cards that might be needed (obviously I don't know much about these notebook computers). (2) The ad specifically says it works with notebooks with a Type II slot. Seems like most of the notebook ads have Type III slots. What's the difference, and does it matter? (3) Do any of you experienced notebook users think this is a good solution for me? BTW, I don't travel alot - maybe will use this when traveling 4 times a year. Other than that, may carry it between home and office, but not everyday. (4) The product is made by a company named Axial Technologies. Would they have to pay any licensing fees to Iomega for using the "Zip" name in their product? (5) Nice to see that Iomega has spawned its own industry of products that people are making for the Zip products! Thanks for any answers/comments anyone may have. 4+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: PC Connection other items Kodak: Full page ad on digital cameras. C'mon n.hand. Big, loud full page ad for Buz again. DittoMax is advertised. What a great product. Abt 2/3 page ad for it. Bottom 1/3 of page is for Ditto. Top half of facing page is the Zip ads. Also 1/4 page under the Zip ads is the Hi-Val Superdisk. Looks like something that should be on the shelf at the flea market. Also on that page is an ad for "DoubleZip 97", by Kiss Software Corporation. I guess this gives the data compression so that you can get those "up to 200MB" on a Zip disk. Personally, I had my experience with Stacker and will not even attempt this kinda stuff. But the ad says, " And it comes with a built-in applet so DoubleZipped disks can be shared with users just like the regular removable disks." Can anyone explain? Anyone, it's another product in the new "Zip industry!" That's all for now, folks. 5+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Less than SparQling analysis Mark, I have a lot of respect for your analysis, and especially for your willingness, despite being an Iomega advocate, to take issue with excessively optimistic and/or inconsistent arguments sometimes put forth by this forum's more ardent Iomega supporters. However, IMO your analysis of the likely impact on Iomega of SyQuest's just-announced "SparQ" product is too optimistic. Although you start by pointing to three Iomega products which you suggest the SparQ seems intended to hurt, you then conclude that there is little reason to for concern. Let's take a closer look at the three products you identified. First, while it is unlikely that most would-be purchasers looking for a moderate capacity removable, are going to choose a 1GB drive, the $199.95 price point of the SyQuest product, together with a less than $0.04 per MB media cost, raises the possibility that some potential buyers would consider the SparQ as a Zip alternative (a choice which probably very few would be tempted to make with respect to the Jaz given its current pricing - for both the drive and the media). Still, I doubt that SyQuest sees potential buyers of smaller capacity removable media drives as the prime target for SparQ. Second, as you suggest, the ZipPlus with its $199 price point, would appear more vulnerable to competition from SparQ (but clearly not for those buyers where the "dual" interface offered by ZipPlus is a compelling factor). Third (and this would appear to be where the SparQ is primarily aimed), IMO potential buyers of Jaz1, are going to find the $100 to $200 price advantage of the SparQ drive, and especially the 60%+ lower cost of the media, a very appealing package. Of course, this will not be an option for Mac users, but the lack of a SCSI version of the SparQ is hardly a drawback of any consequence for the everyday PC user. Actually, as I read your comments, at this point of the discussion, we may not be very far apart in our thinking. However, where we really differ is with respect to the high degree of "comfort" you draw based upon 1) the compatibility factor -- which clearly is of some advantage to the Jaz and especially 2) your amazing remark that "even if SparQ took the world by storm, SyQuest could not satisfy the market demand". As for the compatibility issue, it seems to me this would be far more important for commercial/professional users than for individual PC owners purchasing such a drive for personal use. And, in fact, SyQuest's press releases on this subject make it clear that the non-professional individual user is the primary "target" audience for SparQ. Regarding SyQuest having a problem meeting demand, I suspect their management would love to have such a problem. While you may take comfort in believing that capacity limitations would prevent SyQuest from making any significant inroads in the potential demand for Jaz, I think it is a weak argument. Le's not forget that this is a company which, according to most of the resident wisdom on this board, shouldn't even be in existance today. Notwithstanding all the disparaging comments hurled at SyQuest in this forum, the tenacity and resourcefullness demonstrated by their (current) management over the past year is undeniable. Given this recent history, I think it is really questionable to assume that, should it develop, they would be unable to deal effectively with the "problem" of burgeoning demand for this new product. BTW, as a final observation I find it incredible you would suggest, that on the one hand the SparQ will not have any serious impact on either the Jaz or the Zip, but then say that it "kills off one product (the EZFlyer) entirely and mortally wounds another (the SyJet)". While this may make sense to you, I find it contradictory and, in fact, consistent with the idea that "Iomega's products are subject to a different brand of logic/rules", a notion that you yourself have attacked at times in the past. I don't claim to "know" SyQuest's strategy but, as stated earlier, I doubt the SparQ will draw demand in any large measure, away from smaller capacity drives like the Zip or the EZ Flyer. As for the SyJet, it seems clear that SyQuest will be aiming this device (as Iomega is doing with Jaz 2) at the higher capacity "professional" community. Further, and this my own pure speculation, there is some logic in thinking that SyQuest might announce a higher capacity SyJet (2/ 2.5GB) that is backward compatible with the current 1.5 GB cartridges. This would reinforce the association of the SyJet line with the commercial/professional user (at a higher price/performance point) allowing them to more pointedly differentiate the Quest as a solution for the everyday PC user. Warren P.S. I would also question the applicability of the reference (which I did not reproduce) in your original post to Iomega's early difficulty in meeting Jaz demand. As I understand the history, Iomega had no production experience with Winchester-based drives prior to introducing the Jaz, which is not at all the case with SyQuest.Therefore, drawing a parallel with SyQuest regarding this lacks a comparable foundation. 6+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: SANDISK INSIDE ..now wait a minute here.. ..the way I see it, is that flash-RAM is established in the marketplace, and that IOMEGA is the one who hopes to displace some of that market.. ..you make it sound as if Sandisk is attacking iomega, IMHO, it's THE OTHER WAY AROUND.. << I really should not be posting but wanted to warn IOM investors that Sandisk has develope new technology to target the IOM removable storage industry. The new chips will are being used by Seagate to go head to head with IOM. IOM's Nhand will have company from Sandisk-Seagate products that will preview at Comdex. Seagate plans a news release within days. Sandisk's new "SANDISK INSIDE" marketing has the ears of Western Digital also. Cell phones, laptops, computers, video all will be targeted by Sandick's new chip. IOM better be ready for this Sandisk attack. >> 7+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: hands Site now say 8 more days till "Clik" . Clik has a trademark sign on it. Sounds like a new product. 8+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Less than SparQling analysis << Further, and this my own pure speculation, there is some logic in thinking that SyQuest might announce a higher capacity SyJet (2/ 2.5GB) that is backward compatible with the current 1.5 GB cartridges. >> Logic? Syquest? Surely you jest. HYPEMENOT, has Syquest shown ANY logic in their product releases in relation to backward compatibility? You only have to check the product line scorecard to see the blunders these folks have made: 44/88/200 MB 270 MB 135/230 MB (EZFlyer) 1.5 GB (SyJet) 1 GB (SparQ) That's 5 separate and incompatible product lines in a relatively short stretch of time. Please show us the logic. These folks have split their own customer base to the point where eventually their old customers will simply say "Screw it" and move on to another company. Not the best way to build customer loyalty. 9+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Limericks are addictive With apologizes in advance, I recently found a limerick newsgroup and have rhymes stuck in my mind. I hope it doesn't last too long, for all our sakes :)
If a zip drive was 5 foot 9
The other group of Fools
It's not a love it or leave it vow
A blue box with sex appeal
The zip is really very hip
The moral here is very clear
It's so simple it's clear as pie
Add all this up, it isn't too tough
Now n.hand is coming to life 10++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Clik speculation Turk says: << Seems to be little point in competing with your partners and going outside your core competancy to do so. >> I'm no camera expert by any means, but a modern digital camera is built from off the shelf components so I see no problems for Iomega to build one. n.hand is a paradigm shift in miniture storage, being a disk and therefore different from what all these "partners" are used to may clog their thinking process much like the backward compatible issues with any future "floppy" did to the zip competitors. I like to think that co's are smart and able to see the trends before they develop, but as zip competition has proven to me (again) is that they don't. Iomega could and in fact should blaze it's own trail regarding n.hand. In my opinion n.hand has the potential to take over flash and relegate it to a niche smaller then SyQuest's or ORT's niche with backward compatible floppies. While i'm sure OEM's have shown interest in n.hand, I'm mush less sure that any of them have the wear-with-all to jump on board and run with it in a big way. Iomega drove the zip disk into the market using a sexy and cool add on drive that swept the consumer up in the excitement of what that disk could do. Only then did the big OEM's join in, and still they are hesident to commit themselves completely. My thoughts about an Iomega brand camera doing the same thing for n.hand were triggered by applying the same approach to the market. Iomega can lead the way again. They already have the distribution, they have the manufacturing, they have the money, they have the engineering. A digital camera is perfect and it's easy to build. their core competency is media, creating devices that use that media (razors) is a line of business that promotes that competency and doesn't detract from it at all. Others will license the n.hand because it is better, in demand by the consumer, cool and all that other stuff, at some point they won't be able to ignore (unless they want to miss the boat) the pull of the market. Just from watching the past it is clear that Iomega has had to go out on it's own and lead the way, I think it makes sense that they stay out front, if they already have major commitments from OEM's to use n.hand then maybe they won't have to "get into" the camera business, but I see no reason to doubt that if that if they do they will be a major player. 11++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Clik is It? Just got off the phone with Tyler Thatcher...investor relations. n.Hand is media and drives...ONLY. OEMs can dream up the rest...Clik, Snap, whatever. As someone stated before, why in the h___ would they leave their core competencies? Good point. Anyways, in Mr. Thatcher's words, "No announcement has been made as to what n.Hand will be called." I like clik or snap... 12++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: My 2 cents! << The 10 fingers,now eight, can't be an announcement that 10 mil zips sold. You can't predict that 10 days before. Thats like McDonalds telling people 10 days in advance that a zillion trillion people served by next week. What happens I f I don't go to McDonalds this week? Anyway, It has to be N-hand or what no one had said yet...merger anyone????? Tom >> Tom, with all due respect your conclusions are wrong. You can absolutely predict when the 10 millionth Zip will be sold, especially if you estimate conservatively like Iomega does. If they have been selling 30,000+ drives each day for 45 days (I have every reason to believe they have), they know not only average daily sales but also standard deviation, etc. With reasonable certainly, they can tell you when the 10 millionth is sold... More importantly, they don't have to make the announcement on the exact day, because none of the previous millionth announcement has appeared to claim precision. Second, I see no reason why n-hand is a big announcement. It's announced a year ago and now what, it's shipping in a third-party camera? Nice for investors to know, but hardly a big deal to Iomega customers. Third, the one thing we definitely know is that it isn't a merger. SEC regulations require you to be tight-lipped about merger talks. I thought two days ago someone would suggest this merger idea, and hoped it wouldn't come out. There is no merger announcement eight days from now. Guarantee it. 13++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Microcenter Flyer for VST Zip Received in the mail today a flyer from Microcenter containing advertisement for VST Zip 100 Drive for Powerbook 3400 SKU # 547513 VST Zip 100 Drive for Powerbook 1400 SKU # 547315 Both priced at $299 Tried to call for availability, but was kept on hold for 20 minutes and hung up. Their number is (617)234-6435. I'll try again later. Has anyone else seen this flyer before today? One can only hope this means their arrival is imminent. Tony Vazquez _______________________________ End Report. Posts covered through 9:00pm ET 11/5/97. _______________________________
WE
DELIVER - Get IOM
In Fooldom Today delivered
|
||||||||||
|
|||||||||||
