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Thursday, November 20, 1997 Wednesday, Iomega closed at $30 7/8, down $1/8 (-0.40%). TODAY'S RECAP: Message board posters received first-hand information from Comdex yesterday with heavy emphasis on Iomega's new clik! drive and disk. A few other products were covered on the board also -- including Jaz2 and Ditto -- as well as news about IOM's competition: Avatar's Shark and Imation's LS-120. Enjoy! INDEX: Use the Search or Find feature of your word processor to locate the article number (Find: 1++, 3++, etc.) - or use AOL's Edit>>Find in Top Window Feature. If Find in Top Window is dimmed, just click on some text, anything, in the IOM Today window and try again.
1++ JunkYard71 opines about Iomega's role in the personal storage
market.
Recap written by TMF Weekly; posts
compiled by TMF Weekly. As always, the following posts represent the thoughts of our contributors, not those of The Motley Fool.
And now, the Best of the Board...Started 9:01pm ET 11/18/97. 1+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: $300 Flash Memory??? << I also don't see the link between SanDisk and Intel and Iomega and Intel. Perhaps you can clarify. Thanks. >> Good points regarding Intel and high margin markets. Intel and Iomega actually have a lot in common though, if Intel had taken a different road in CPU's there may not be an Intel at all. Or at least like the one that exists today, owning it's market etc... The risks are there for Iomega just like they were for Intel in the mid 1980's Iomega seems to understand the goal they are after and they seem to be working toward it with a business plan honed from Intel's, with the added benefit of having 20/20 hindsight as to some of Intel's mistakes. Iomega may very well own the majority of the removable storage market in the 21st century, one hard point to pin down is just how big will that 21st century market be. Currently Intel owns the lions share of the PC CPU market and a nice chunk of the motherboard market and a few others too. Major PC components is a great business to be in right now and will be better in the next decade I have no doubt. Go Intel! As for personal media, it's really not understood yet (like the PC market in the 80's) but we're seeing explosive growth due to the zip drive and somewhat the jaz, but it's zip that is the star and the reason for the debates about where removable storage is going. It's not hard to see Optical as a plus until you use it, many zip critics don't evidently even bother. There is a need for little bits of flash in almost every digital device (so it can remember how it was last set) As a general rule, if you can unplug it (or remove the batteries), plug it back in and have it remember the time or the channel it was last set to, the volume level or whatever, it's because those setting are stored in some form of flash RAM. What Flash can't do is be big and cheap (sure maybe someday it will, and maybe someday optical will be fast and easy, and maybe nano technology will make it all obsolete) but in the meantime media belongs to magnetics just like chips belong to silicon and are stuffed full of transistors. I don't see magnetic media going away, and I don't see any reason to think consumers will care as long as it's cheap enough, fast enough, big enough and durable enough. Flash surely has it's place as a small volume memory cell, and optical as an archival/distribution media. Tape being totally linear is easy to classify as a non contender, I only mention it because it falls in the media catagory. If Iomega does succeed in becoming the Intel of personal storage, or the Microsoft of media, what will that mean and what risks should Iomega accept to attain that lofty title. I think they should drive like the devil, pull no punches and take no prisoners. In my opinion the best tactic to achieving "standardization" is to maintain a standard from the beginning, the 100MB zip is an emerging standard as much because there are 10 million of them out there as it is that they're 100MB. It is not yet time for a 200MB or 400MB, although at some point (way down the road) they may be viable descendants to the zip. The zip is big enough to serve it's market for a good while yet and I think changing that would be a very big mistake. But the zip only addresses a part of the media market, the existing PC based one. Like Intel pushed the envelope in the PC market and Microsoft grew the software market (if nothing else they sure grew the size of the programs) I see Iomega creating the personal storage market. The motive for them to do this is easy enough, to own the media standards for the digital revolution that is barely started, although the revolution will come with or without Iomega's clik! solution, clik! will allow it to happen quite a bit faster then alternate approaches. Clik! is an enabling device and potentially one that will destabilize some other technologies, I don't what to make it sound like a sure thing, it's not, but it appears to be well conceived for it's goal and it is coming from a company that is spry enough to pull it off. I have my fingers crossed and will cheer every positive development and look for silver linings in any setbacks or hurdles encountered along the way toward owning the personal media going into the 21st century. My risk is my investment, I want to own a piece of that kind of potential. 2+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Consumers Reports In the new December 97 Consumer Reports article Living with Technology : Hard Drive Clutter, how not to run out of space (Abbreviated) 1. Remove unwanted files 2. Save space but keep files ( compress) 3. Add megabytes "An external carteidge drive, such as the widely available Iomega Zip drive or the Iomega Jaz drive, can relieve pressure on the hard derive by letting you store data on cartridges that hold 100 mg to 1 gb....." No other removeable drives are mentioned. 3+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Comdex Test Ctr: Jaz2 Test Drive Computer Reseller News Comdex Test Center reviewed Jaz2 today. The test result can be found at CRN Test Center . Short video review will be available later on the Web. http://www.crn.com/sections/testcenter/comdex97fall/iomega.asp Here are some highlights. << Topping off the list of attributes for this product is the ability to create separate boot disks and therefore separate environments for, say, Windows NT or Windows 95. Fast, friendly to install and fiendishly big, the CRN Comdex Test Center recommends the Jaz 2-Gbyte drive. >> 4+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Comdex Some notes from Comdex today; Very crowded as usual, the reasons there are so few posts I believe, is due to AOL not being here this year. In previous years people would post right from inside the convention center. The Iomege booth is huge. Am I ever glad that KE used some monies from q3 to help pay for things. Half of the buses have Iomega ads on them, and interestingly outside the convention center there are Syquest banners running the lengh of the hall (100 or so yds) Back to the booth. At any one time between the ladys giving away buttons, bags, chocolate bars commemorating the 10 mil Zip, the guys doing demos (Clik! ditto, Jaz) there had to be 25-30 at a time worrking. Then there were the actual Iomega employees (with buttons that say "I have enough room for their name") At the end of the booth is a stage for the clik! video demo, very awesome! They were handing out little clickers like the allies used in WWII. Buttons: They weren't up to par on previous yrs but a sample were: Zip Freak Ditto Freak i've got over a million of them i've got room for photos i've got multiple capacities i've got disaster recovery 5+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Iomega a licensee! Manreal1 posts from an Imation press release: << Imation currently licenses eight companies to market products based on its proprietary Travan technology, including AIWA, Exabyte, Hewlett Packard, Iomega, Seagate, Sony, Tandberg Data and Tecmar. >> Just a clarification of this sentence out of the Travan NS 20 announcement. The fact that Iomega licenses Travan technology from Imation is very old news. They used it in the Easy Ditto 800 (TR1) and Easy Ditto 3200 (TR3) tape drives. I don't believe IOM intends to do any more Travan products. The Ditto 800 has been discontinued and the Ditto 3200 will probably be de-emphasized because of the new 3.7GB tape for the Ditto 2GB drive (not Travan technology) and the DittoMax produce line. Iomega's proprietary tapes provide revenue while a user buying TR3 tapes for the Ditto 3200 provides none for IOM. An interesting irony to add to the mix is that Imation has licensed DittoMax technology from Iomega and may attempt to market DittoMax tapes. 6+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Comdex part II some other notes; at any one time, there are at least 6 to 8 demos going on at the booth, all the zip partners were on display, including the laptops, At the Imation booth, pretty pitiful, one table, (that I noticed) one unit on display, Syquest had a booth very near where Iomega was last year, kinda against the wall on the so. end. Much bigger than last yr, much more customer attention, though at least half the people coming thru had Iomega buttons on, or Iomega bags. Overall, it was impressive. SparQ was the big dog in the show for them, three different displays going on, must say it was well done. If anybody needs any reports from any particular areas, e-mail me and I'll try to get to see them. (leaving Thurs. early) 7+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Comdex stuff Well, perhaps I can provide an additional, tiny fix of Comdex stuff while we wait on HeyKerry's tease. :) Guess who caught a severe case of button fever (well, the production thereof, anyway) - Syquest, of course. Having not arrived on the comdex floor until after 3pm, I didn't make it to Syquest until after close. Lots of buttons available on racks, though. "Where there's a Sparq there's fire" things like that. It probably sounds tired, but I am still very struck by how visible IOM is through their big, bold, shape holding, red and yellow bags. If you just look around from the standpoint of what catches the eye the bags must be ranked very high. Based on the continuation of the things that worked at last Comdex and the addition of the new, I think it can be said that, if nothing else, Iomega knows how to get attention. (Didn't see too many Wall Street Analysts there, however). My first move upon arriving at the IOM booth was to get a general impression. They obviously expanded their floor space by what looked to be close to 100%. As expected, it was busy and bustling, and the clik! multi-media/live demo seems to be one of the most attention getting and well attended presentations around. (I'll go out on a limb and posit that two of the three performers being attractive, less than warmly clad females had at least a share in that outcome) :) ...and I do mean :) And then came the noise. While checking out the ackaging/promotion displays regarding clik!, I became aware of a clicking sound. It stopped. And then there was another, from a new and equally unpinpointed location. And then another passing from right to left but still without a recognizable source. I, of course, immediatly assumed it must have something to do with click! ...but what if the sound stopped and I didn't get it identified. I'd then have to start asking people "did you hear that sound, did you hear it?" "..uh, sound?, er, what sound, buddy..........SECURITY! " Or I'd be reduced to a parody of something out of Alfred Hitchcock, spinning people around by the shoulders.....looking for "the source". OK. Think. Perhaps that harmless looking woman over there handing things out could answer my question. Luckily for me, before I could ask it, she offered forth what I was sharp enough to identify as a possible lead in my investigation. Voila! Little yellow hand clickers operated by the thumb with the body being largely hidden inside the hand. Investigation complete and no embarrassing questions. Say, this was shaping up as a different sort of Comdex. After speaking with various IOM people, I feel much better about the lack of a zip caddy for clik!. Basically the explanation was that compatibility with all the other consumer electronics was more important than compatibility with zip, and compromises would have had to be made on the zip side (such as locking themselves in with zip heads, for instance). The cutaway mock-up of click! revealed that the revised drive has a rotary actuator rather than the linear one I noticed in nhand last year. It was explained that the acuator along with other details have been changed in the pursuit of ruggedness. After the official close of comdex for the day, I stumbled -- late :( upon the tail end of a click! presentation where I there, and afterwards, learned the following random pieces of info. The consumer drive is currently slated to be a combo parallel/scsi like Zip plus with other considerations such as USB having to go through the demand/price point analysis. clik! is being extensively tested in various dusty environments It's being developed to withstand 500 hrs of continuous read/write to one track without error 100 Gs operating, 300 Gs non operating All others have been purged from my non non-volatile memory. OK Kerry, I mean HeyKerry......take it away! 8+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: USA Today - Comdex The Feature Front page article in USA Today is about Comdex and includes a paragraph mentioning clik! "In a cramped industrial set bathed in smoke and white light, two Broadway dancers writhe in tight black dresses. They kick their legs high and mouth near impossible lyrics, exhorting the crowd...to enter Iomega's "new world of high-capacity removable storage!"... "...Iomega folks are pleased by the warm applause from athe croud of programmers, system analysts and buyers. Iomega wants their upcoming Clik! drive, tw inches square and two ounces light, to be the "ultraportable" storage standard..." 9+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: ZIP SALES TO SURGE In the new PC MALL catalog it shows all of the old Iomega adv. with a few nice additions. One, a dual add for Zip plus and Jaz2 and two ( the big one ), at the beginning of each desktop pc section (HP,Compaq,etc) it shows the computer with a big yellow (read umissable) star with an arrow entering the drive bay. In the star it says to add a Zip drive to your new system for $99. This is repeated at the beginning of major pc manufacturers. IMO, this is a major breakthrough in Iomega's advertising . This will make purchasers more likely to add a Zip. 10++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Shark and LS-120 News LAS VEGAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 19, 1997-- The Shark 250 Receives PC Portable's Editors' Choice Award for Storage Product of the Year. Avatar Peripherals today announced that its Shark 250(TM) mobile hard drive with mini-removable media was awarded PC Portable's Editors Choice Award for Storage Product of the Year. PC Portables announced the winner of this year's award at its annual award ceremony held this morning during Fall COMDEX. LAS VEGAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 19, 1997-- Demonstrates Powerful Notebook Applications for High-Capacity, Backward-Compatible Diskette Solution, Commercialization Slated for First Quarter 1998 Imation Corp. (NYSE: IMN) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) are demonstrating models of IBM's ThinkPad 770 high-end notebook computers equipped with SuperDisk LS-120 drives installed in the ThinkPad's UltraBay II bay at COMDEX/Fall '97, Imation officials announced today. 11++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Shark and LS-120 News I actually just spoke with Micro Warehouse about the Thinkpad about 1/2 hour ago. The thing comes with a 3.5" drive. I guess we're back to what do I need the backasswards compatibility for then? I guess I don't have to carry the 3.5" drive, but for that would I accept: Extreme Slowness 120 diskettes which cannot be exchanged with 10mm others Uncoolity (I made that up - like it? :) ) Personally, I do need the 3.5" drive. But only every now & then. About once a month, on average. The only time I ever use a 3.5" is to load software updates from my company that come on 3.5". I never need the 3.5" when travelling. So it's good to have the swappable 3.5" when I need it. But golly gee, I wouldn't sell my soul to the devil & buy a Lame-Slow, incompatible, uncool LS-120 just for the occasional use of an increasingly obsolete little disk. 12++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Clik! Roundup << ces for 4-megabit parts have dropped from $6 earlier this year, to below $4 now, while 8-megabit flash now sells for $5.50, compared with $11. Meanwhile, a 16-megabit part has dropped to $12 from $18 earlier this year, according to market sources >> So at the absolute best price, it's $.50 a megabit or $4 a megabyte -- wholesale... On a price basis, this seems pretty irrelevant. If the Flash makers meet their goal of $1/MB by 2000, they'll only be 4x more expensive than Clik! if end users are allowed to buy at $1/MB, which seems unlikely. Also, do we really believe that 20 and 40MB Flash cards will be ubiquitous in 2000? Still, price isn't enough to win. The Zip media is a ludicrous, price-wise, .10-.15 per MB when hard drives -- whole drive -- sell for .05/MB! Price isn't everything. It's something, but so is convenience. << Another thing that came out last Thursday was that flash memory cannot be re-written to rapidly? Can anyone confirm this; that digital cameras with flash memory have long lag times between shots? Flash is being used. Clik is cheaper (per MB and overall), faster, and has greater capacity. Hitachi obviously thinks Clik makes more sense for hand held PCs. I'm sure there will be niches for both products to fill. Time will tell who fills more. >> Flash can be slow in certain operations, especially erase/rewrite cycles. It remains to be seen if performance of Clik can be an advantage. It probably won't be a disadvantage, except maybe on the battery side... The key will be a clever motor and really well integrated cheap semiconductors made on small process fabs (.25-..35 micron) with low-voltage cores. << Intel doesn't do so good outside of processors and chipsets. They made a foray into modems and got killed. In flash memory they've been trounced by SanDisk which is amazing. If SanDisk can beat them with the same product, then if Iomega should be able to beat them with a better product. >> This is pretty flat-out wrong. Intel is selling a lot of Flash, just not as much as they had hoped. That probably has more to do with the market than with SanDisk. Intel is very strong in the cellular-phone flash market. Intel also now has almost an equivalent market-share to 3Com in NICs, another high-volume product. Intel does volume exceptionally well, it is probably the world's finest manufacturing company. Other areas of interest Mini-flash cards are now made to at least three different shapes and sizes, with a fourth apparently coming (from SanDisk). The smallest of them is probably too small for Clik to compete. The other three are incompatible and annoying non-interoperable as a result. The purity of cross-device Clik disks and drives seems like a big plus to me, because all three mini-flash standards are "winning". Which is most likely to wind up attached to a PC for file transfer: a Clik drive (maybe via a WinCE device, maybe built into the Zip drive, maybe attached externally), or a mini-flash reader? This nonsense about the shock rating is just that. If you drop your digital camera on cement, the Clik drive will likely suffer more damage than the flash card (although you never know). Meanwhile, the whole camera will break. So who cares about the media. As for the disks themselves, I'd bet a tiny Clik disk is gonna fall to very hard surfaces all the time without breaking. If it breaks, at least your out only $10 vs. maybe $100-300 on the flash card. Also, I'm pretty sure some people will keep a collect of "exposed" Clik disks while I doubt anyone will bury thousands of dollars into keeping "exposed" flash cards. I'm sure a Kodak-branded Clik disk would sell well and in large quantity. I doubt a SanDisk-branded flash card will ever be a keeper ("Buy a 10-pack!..." i don't think so). Kodak getting a revenue split on those disks would encourage volume purchasing... And would get the sales to make money for everyone. Still, while I am quite bullish above, I am cautious about market acceptance of this product. 13++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Clik! Roundup << As for the disks themselves, I'd bet a tiny Clik disk is gonna fall to very hard surfaces all the time without breaking. If it breaks, at least your out only $10 vs. maybe $100-300 on the flash card. >> LOL! Life Imitates Art Department: at the Rainbow Room press conference last week, Kim Edwards and nearly every other speaker who handled the clik! drive during speeches managed to drop the device. The first time this happened, the assembled flacks were seen to wince visibly in sympathy; some even groaned aloud. (Fortunately, Mr. Edwards himself was the first Fumblefingers!) But after about the third mishap with no discernable consequences, this routine started to look like a running gag, sort of like those old SNL skits lampooning Gerald Ford (note: a briefly historic figure in an era before floppies were invented). At the end of the conference, when I picked up a presskit containing clik! samples, imagine my horror as I opened the folder only to see the shiny little gadgets clatter noisily to the floor. Nearly every recipient of a presskit did the same thing. I won't contend that any of this was rehearsed, just ironic. _______________________________ End Report. Posts covered through 7:00pm ET 11/19/97. _______________________________
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