|
|
|
|
Thursday, December 11, 1997 Wednesday, Iomega closed at $28, down $1 (-3.45%). TODAY'S RECAP: On yet another down day for Iomega's stock, posters on the IOM message board continued to discuss laptop Zip drives as well as SyQuest, PC sales (U.S. and worldwide), Iomega's "effect" on floppy disk sales and some general questions/concerns about the company. Enjoy! INDEX: Use the Search or Find feature of your word processor to locate the article number (Find: 1++, 3++, etc.) - or use AOL's Edit>>Find in Top Window Feature. If Find in Top Window is dimmed, just click on some text, anything, in the IOM Today window and try again.
1++ TMF Turk posts a brief excerpt from and a URL for a Forbes article on
SyQuest and Iomega.
Recap written by TMF Weekly; posts
compiled by TMF Weekly. As always, the following posts represent the thoughts of our contributors, not those of The Motley Fool.
And now, the Best of the Board...Started 9:01pm ET 12/9/97. 1+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: forbes piece.... The Forbes article is an outstanding overview of the last few years, with the rise and fall of Syquest and the rise of Iomega. Must reading if you are following the industry at all. The writer does make the following comments too: << So is SparQ a Zip-killer? Don't bet on it. Iomega's Zip has already been installed on so many computers that it is unlikely to be upstaged. In the near future expect your computer to come with a pre-installed Zip drive in addition to a 1.44 MB floppy drive. >> http://www.forbes.com/tool/html/97/dec/1209/feat.htm 2+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: IDC- 3rd Q PC sales IDC has issued its report on PC sales in the U.S. and worldwide for the 3rd quarter. Compaq continues to dominate although Dell and HP are showing excellent growth. You can read the entire IDC press release, some overall 1998 PC market projections by going to Key Word: news search and typing in "IDC" Top 5 Vendors, US PC Shipments, Third Quarter 1997 (Thousands of units)
Q3' 97 Q3 '97 Q3 '96 Q3 '96 Growth Rank Vendor Units Share Units Share 1997/96
1 Compaq 1,578 18.8% 943 13.5% 67% 2 Dell 812 9.7% 495 7.1% 64% 3 PB/NEC 681 8.1% 722 10.4% -6% 4 IBM 660 7.9% 615 8.8% 7% 5 HP 629 7.5% 348 5.0% 80% Others 4,017 48.0% 3,851 55.2% 4%
All Vendors 8,377 100.0% 6,975 100.0% 20%
Source: International Data Corp., 12/97
Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide PC Shipments, Third Quarter 1997 (Thousands of units)
Q3 '97 Q3 '97 Q3 '96 Q3 '96 Growth Rank Vendor Units Share Units Share 1997/96
1 Compaq 2,770 14.1% 1,810 10.7% 53% 2 IBM 1,641 8.4% 1,508 8.9% 9% 3 Dell 1,209 6.2% 796 4.7% 52% 4 HP 1,168 6.0% 695 4.1% 68% 5 PB/NEC 980 5.0% 1,002 5.9% -2% Others 11,846 60.4% 11,082 65.7% 7%
All vendors 19,614 100.0% 16,929 100.0% 16% Data for Packard Bell NEC does not include NEC Japan or NEC China Source: International Data Corp., 12/97 3+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: CNF portable vs. IDE & SCSI Hi Gang, LarryChief's report on the VST laptop Zip drive for Macintosh has encouraged me to post my results with the CNF laptop Zip drive for Toshiba PC's. I bought the Zip drive on Dec. 1 at CompUSA using the part number posted in the Iomega Folder. They seemed surprised when I called to see if they were in stock, they even asked how I got the part SKU. Installation, turn computer off, slide Zip drive into bay, turn computer on. Too cool. The drive felt a little slower than the IDE drive in my desktop system so I did some informal speed testing. I used an external SCSI with a Zip Zoom on a 486/120, an IDE on a K6/233, and the CNF laptop on a Pentium/120. The drives were tested by copying a 65.1 MB folder (assorted installed application folders) from the Zip drive to the hard drive (the same disk was used in each case). I was interested in the speed related to accessing files and running applications from the Zip drive. The results are presented below. 65.1 MB folder SCSI 3:00 Minutes IDE 1:45 Minutes Portable 2:00 Minutes The CNF portable drive was slightly slower than the IDE (less than 15%) but was 50% faster than the external SCSI. I contacted CNF and they quoted 1.4 M/sec for the transfer rate, the same as Iomega quotes on their website for the IDE/ATAPI and Zip Plus. Can anyone explain why the SCSI drive seems to be slower? The SCSI speed seemed the same on the 486/120 and they K6/233 in the past but I could not connect the SCSI to the K6/233 for this test. My IDE Zip drive has always seemed very fast. Great drive. Everybody needs one. And a NEC MoblePro 700 with a Clik! drive. If we can only talk NEC into including the Clik! 4+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Floppy Disk business out of steam Could this be the "Iomega effect?" In a copywritten Dow Jones story this a.m. Floppy-Disk maker Kao is reported to be taking a $92.4 million dollar charge and cutting its overseas output of floppy disks in half to fewer than 200 million disks per year. Kao currently has a 15% share of the world wide floppy disk market and is one the biggest floppy disk producers in the world according to the story. Two brief quotes below: << "The floppy-disk business ran out of steam more rapidly than we expected, as we met fierce price competition," Fumikatsu Tokiwa, Kao's chairman, said. The special loss of 12 billion yen will be incurred for write-offs of floppy disk production facilities at all three plants. >> 5+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Told ya boys -IOM is trading at 11 times over 98 trailing nos- Sounds cheap to me. -IOM is growing at 25 % per annum and nothing spectacular in this at this multiples- Revenues may only be growing at 25%. Earnings are growing at better than 35% -- forward -- according to the conservative analyst projections for next year. Backward EPS growth is like 80% or more. -IOMs click will not see a dime till end 98 Good. Just what Iomega need to juice the 99 numbers. -IOMs comptitions are getting bigger and wider, of which you refuse to recognise Jaz competition is getting wider. But Zip competition? Same ol' LS-120, with much much less OEM penetration and well under 10% of the Zip's installed base. -IOMS click will have to prove it self against digital flash memories with out the moving parts Yup. But at least Kodak, Hitachi, HP and others seem pretty optimistic about that given that they attended Iomega's press event. -IOMs click fails , it will bring down the rest in a hurry, Zips succes does not guarantee it Zip alone could drive the stock to twice the current price -- or better -- by end of 1998. On earnings growth alone, no extra premium needed. -Sony as we speak is developing a 3gb on 3.5 Optical? Magnetic? Flexible? Fixed? Yawn! What do you think Iomega is doing? Don't you think 4GB Jaz (3.5" disks) is well under development? I know it is. -Sonys 200 mb I hear is too late according to IOMers, yet the name value of SONY and Walkman effect on SONY products will give Zips its run for the money, especially Europeans Les SONY ! Voilla ! Tres Tres Chic Chic, Iomega ? Ques que cest ca ? Une Egoist ? 200 MB inbetween 100 and 1 gb for now at a Walkman price ? and world wide service criteria Sony hardly has taken the worldwide PC market by storm despite its elan, sturm and drang, pananche and joie de vive. Mega yawn! With 20 million Zips installed before the first Sony HiFD ships -- the first -- and possibly 30 million Zips by year-end 1998, with an OEM cost of $39 at that time, I'll take Zip in the battle, if it ever materializes. Right now, I still worry more about LS-120, which at least exists, than HiFD. If Iomega and licensees drive the price down and continue the marketing efforts they have going, I'm a lot less worried. -Even VVUS will match IOMs eps next year VVUS? This is related to Iomega how? Try not at all. -260 million shares is nothing to laugh about No one is laughing. Those 260 million shares will each earn .45 for the year and be trading at ~40x trailing EPS. When next year's EPS is .70-90, they could easily continue to command a 40x multiple. -TPRO can possibly do 1 bill by end 99 Ah, hype-pro again. Once the year 2000 arrives, the year 2000 business is dead. DEAD. D-E-A-D. It is not an annuity business like software, or Zip media, or even Zip drives. It is gone. Topro is an Internet hype stock. I will consider buying IOM at 27 ish or will wait post split. Perhaps the most valuable lesson to learn here is this: Just because Joe said the price would fall from 33 into the 20s, and it actually did, means nothing at all. It means he guessed right. Stock prices do not move in patterns, a million academic studies can prove it. See you at the split... _______________________________ End Report. Posts covered through 9:00pm ET 12/10/97. _______________________________
WE
DELIVER - Get IOM
In Fooldom Today delivered
|
||||||||||
|
|||||||||||
