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Friday, May 1, 1998
Special Note: IOM in Fooldom Today will be discontinued Friday, May 8, 1998. We'd like to encourage all our readers to join "Iomega in Fooldom Right Now" -- happening 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, in our Iomega message folders. If you dig Iomega, hate Iomega, or just want to see what everyone else has to say, that's the place to be -- please drop by! Thanks Fools.
Thursday, Iomega closed at $7 7/8, down $1/4 (-3.08%)
TODAY'S RECAP: Lots of discussion on the IOM board yesterday, much of it focusing on the merits and shortcomings of a 25MB Zip disk (readable by the regular Zip drive). The other major debate was reliability, i.e., are Zip and Jaz drives reliable? If so, how reliable?
Enjoy!
INDEX:
1++ NSACORAF shares thoughts on Zip longevity and inclusion/acceptance
2++ HRPlbg responds to Emerald EPS estimates
3++ DColvin352 offers personal experience with Zip and Jaz (and WDC?) reliablity
4++ MBAspeak wishes for a 25MB Zip disk
5++ PaulL73 with 1996 info about the 25MB disk
6++ MBAspeak provides ideas for new IOM ads
7++ ZilberHere on price-barriers for the Zip
Recap written and posts compiled by TMF
Weekly.
Edited and mailed by TMF Debit.
Kudos? Gripes? Questions? Let us know.
As always, the following posts represent the thoughts of our contributors,
not those of The Motley Fool.
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And now, the Best of the Board...Started 9:00pm ET 4/29/98.
1+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: SYQT is good for IOM
Date: 4/30/98 3:41 AM Eastern Daylight Time
From: NSACORAF
hrythdbst states: << The jury is still out on the longevity of Zip drives. Even the first million drives probably don't have that many hours on them. We won't know for years how durable these things realy are. Iomega has made a whole lot of drives in a short amount of time.... >>
Sorry hrythdbst but the jury is IN and has been for some time. 13 million jury members going on 14 million. Being one of them, I bought my Zip April 5, 1995. Three solid years plus 19 days of almost daily use. Not ONE Problem!
Have an internal Jaz bought at shareholders meeting April 1996 installed in new computer August 1997 ( only 8 months use not as inetnse as Zip). No problems. Anectdotal evidence but true. Oh incidentally at Mesa College in San Diego they just opened a new Learning Center, Library, and computer lab combined. 87 brand new computers, guess what all with CDs and ALL WITH 87 ZIPS! As reported here several months ago, the fellow in charge of all computerson campus, students, staff, and faculty stated to me over 4 months ago: I will not buy any computer without a ZIp drive in it and/or a Zip and a Jaz drive in it. The Jaz drive ares ubiquitous in the graphics, medical, dental, art, and engineering class areas while the Zips are everywhere! That is some Jury! The above is based on facts, not opinion or conjecture.
2+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Misc.
Date: 4/30/98 7:41 AM Eastern Daylight Time
From: HRPlbg
DMccoy4428:
<< Emerald has IOM as a hold right now due to the uncertainty. They revised down their estimate for 98 to .02 for the year. They cite lack of information as a reason for this uncertainty, as well as the recent turmoil. They point out the positives and risks in a balanced way, but really don't want to conclude anything until they see more data. From what I can tell most of the analysts (except Morgan) have taken this approach. >>
Thanks for the information. Why only $0.02 eps this year? Will revenue be lower? Given the current estimates I can't see how they are projecting any higher revenue. At least not in the 4th quarter 98.
I fully expect the company to contain cost so expenses should not be any higher than during last year. Given my belief that expense will be controlled I can come to only one conclusion and that is that revenue will be relatively flat this year. Anyone else have any different ideas?
Anyone actually know the revenue numbers being floated with these eps numbers?
I guess we could factor in future price reductions but if these occur surely they will be offset by demand. Wasn't that KE's plan and comments? Something like 10 x the demand at $99 or something remarkable. It was a general remark about consumer electronic products in the price range of Zip. Someone with a better memory can quote KE exactly.
It's interesting that Emerald sited uncertainty. Uncertainty in what? Uncertain that the growth will continue to occur? Uncertain that Zip will continue to make huge inroads toward becoming a standard? It's just funny that in the early stages Joe was very very bullish to say the least. "HUGE" I believe was his comment carried on many press wires about a very small OEM agreement a few years ago. The OEM agreement may not even exist today. Joe was a raging bull when the picture was still developing. Now that IOM has had a few years to develope Zip into a potential Standard Joe B back peddles and suggest there is uncertainty. Wouldn't the ability of Joe B to see the chance of success been lower 2 years ago? So why the change in attitude toward IOM? Isn't the picture clearer today than it was 2 years ago?
Thanks for the information. Please post revenue expectations if you have them.
3+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Jaz Drive Saved Me
Date: 4/30/98 9:26 AM Eastern Daylight Time
From: DColvin352
Since I rarely post, this is just FWIW. I purchased a 5.1 Gb Western Digital hard drive in August, 1997 to replace an OEM 2.5 Gb Quantum drive that suddenly "died". Well, for the last week or so, the WDC drive has been dying a slow death via physical damage (more and more bad/damaged sectors) to the drive...verified by running a diagnostic tool downloaded from the WDC internet site.
Based on the code produced by the diagnostic tool, WDC technical support initiated the delivery of a free replacement drive last Saturday. In the meantime, I went right out and bought a bigger WDC 6.4 Gb hard drive.
Why buy another WDC drive, you ask? Because I'm convinced that sooner or later ALL hard drives give up the ghost. Since WDC has free tech support and they readily replace drives without arguments, I went with WDC again. Maybe I should start waging a "dying sector" campain against WDC (similar to the zip "clicking death" rubbish that is overblown) in order to trash their stock but I believe that a minimal defect rate is just the way things are in the manufacturing sector. Less that 1% defect rate is good enough for me.
After the August, 1997 fiasco, spending 3 days until 1:00 A.M. reloading software and trying to remember all my personal preferences, I was determined that there just HAD to be a better way. Because all hard drives eventually crash, I was determined not to go through that "big deal" again.
I own a PP zip drive:
o Bought in late 1995
o Have 13 zip disks
o I use it every day. Have NEVER had a problem with the drive OR disks, isn't that odd?
I, also, own an external 1 Gb jaz drive:
o Bought in early 1997
o Have 7 jaz disks
o I use it every day. Have NEVER had a problem with the drive OR disks, isn't that odd?
I bought a new product last October from the Powerquest Corp. called Drive Image. This product can make an image copy of an entire hard drive partition and store it on a jaz drive. I purposely made my "C" partition 1 Gb so I could create such an image file. It takes 54 min. because it literally makes a byte for byte image. Then started creating an image file, also, for the "D" partition due to additional software installed there. I would regurlarly recreate these image files at least once a month, more often if I installed new software.
Well, yesterday was showtime!!!!!!! I installed my new 6.4 Gb hard drive and then invoked Guest.exe from an Iomega installation disk so the machine would recognize my jaz drive. I then restored "C" image file to an UNFORMATTED hard drive in about 20 min. and rebooted the computer with my fingers crossed. To my amazement, Windows 95 booted normally, and there was my desktop, as if nothing had happened, with everything restored perfectly!!! I, then restored my "D" partition in about 10 additional min.
You say I could have done this with a tape backup? I say why go out and buy something else when I already own a jaz drive and this scheme works great and is much faster. I'm so happy this worked I just can't stand it....one of life's little victories for me. Just thought I would relate a factual experience using one of Iomega's VERY RELIABLE products, along with some very ingenious software.
4+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Future Zips
Date: 4/30/98 11:48 AM Eastern Daylight Time
From: MBAspeak
<< A 25MB Zip disk at $5 gets the zip disk closer to throw away levels. It would increase disk sales because people won't spend much time thinking about spending $5. On the otherhand, I have a much harder time spending $15 unless I really need a disk. Iomega needs to do everything they can to increase disk sales.
BuriedLie >>
Yes, yes, and yes. Think of the kids that use these things. I am in school and figuratively broke... actually, $15 can go a long way in a college town ($1.50 you call it, for example.) Also, I like being able to put my stuff into smaller categories... a 25megger facilitates this. I have yet to completely fill up a 100meg disk. (where is my free NZR?)
Fractional tie ratios... think about it.
5+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Future Zips (25MB Disks)
Date: 4/30/98 2:20 PM Eastern Daylight Time
From: PaulL73
<< Does that mean current Zip drives won't be able to read and write 25MB disks? Does it take a future version of Zip drive to read and write 25MB disks?
I have posted and asked the questions but so far no one has responded. >>
NovW: When I bought my Zip drive in 1996 the software installation video included some promotional material. One of the categories was buying Iomega products, which took you through a short tour of the then limited product line. One of the items was a 25-meg Zip disk. In what has now become recognized as the classic Iomega way, the disks were found to be not actually available for purchase when inquiries were made. But I'm sure I'm rightin remembering that the 25-meg disks were meant for use in the Zip100. I think they were more or less built the way cassette tapes are, with different amounts of media in the cases. But that could be wrong, as my grasp of things technical is weak. But I'm sure the 25-meg disks were meant for the Zip100 drive.
6+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Ad ideas
Date: 4/30/98 2:57 PM Eastern Daylight Time
From: MBAspeak
Here's an idea:
Two kids in a kids room with a computer. One kid is showing the other, "Dude, check out this Diablo (a video game) character I've got." Then he goes to load it, and the file is dead (or the whole hard drive is shot.) While the kid is beating the computer (muffled cursing going on in the background,) a Voice Over, "You spend a lot of time making your stuff, why not spend a little time saving it."
Similar scenarios:
Same kids theme with Quake2, or some other popular video game.
One co-worker to another, "Well, after 2 weeks I've finally finished the Jones presentation for tomorrow..." Cut to: co-workers beating the computer... muffled cursing.
One spouse to another, "With this computer program our taxes only took 6 hours this year..." Cut to: spouses beating the computer... muffled cursing.
Teen to Teen, "Check out all of these photos of Tom Cruise (or a band) I found on the internet. I must have gone to over 50 web sites." Cut to: teens beating the computer... muffled cursing.
7+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Future Zips (25MB Disks)
Date: 4/30/98 5:44 PM Eastern Daylight Time
From: ZilberHere
<< 25meggers are more likely to get filled up with stuff... at least they'll churn more often. >>
From the trenches:
My co-worker has staunchly refused to buy a Zip drive for her home computer. She does have one at work, and it would simplify her life tremendously if she could Zip her "stuff" back and forth between home and work. But she can't justify the cost of the drive -- not as long as she can still use Stuffit or Disk Doubler to create multiple-floppy archives at no cost (except for lost time).
Nor is she willing to buy $15 disks to transfer files to her clients, because it would cost about the same to write off the disk as it would to pay for return shipping. Either way, she would have to swallow that cost every time. Meanwhile, her clients have not complained (to her face), and are still accepting the inconvenience of having to restore multiple-disk archives from floppies.
I think this must be absolutely typical of the market resistance which Iomega is now facing. The Zip drive market has been essentially saturated among professionals who have a specific requirement for high-density removable storage and can easily afford the add-on. To everyone else, a Zip drive is just cash out their of pocket to "solve" a problem which already has a cheaper (if less convenient) solution.
Argue all you like about the importance of back-up. Most consumers don't do it, and they won't be compelled to do it just because Zip exists. In this instance, Zip is an expensive solution to a problem which most people just don't acknowledge as a problem. (Until the inevitable crash -- and that either hasn't happened yet, or it's too late to matter.)
The price resistance barrier must be broken in order to grow the Zip standard any further. Ubiquitous $69 SCSI drives would be a good start. $4 or $5 disks would be an even better finish. At that price point, one can more comfortably write off a transfer disk as a cost of doing business. The vast majority of my own file transfers are in the neighborhood of 10 - 20 mb. If my business is at all typical, the expendable 25mb Zip product would be a perfect strategy to this large pocket of consumer resistance.
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End Report. Posts covered through 9:00pm ET ET 4/30/98
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