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Wednesday, May 6, 1998 Special Note: IOM in Fooldom Today will be discontinued Friday, May 8, 1998. We'd like to encourage all our readers to join "Iomega in Fooldom Right Now" -- happening 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, in our Iomega message folders. If you dig Iomega, hate Iomega, or just want to see what everyone else has to say, that's the place to be -- please drop by! Thanks Fools. Tuesday, Iomega closed at $8, up $1/16 (+0.79%) TODAY'S RECAP: For no apparent reason other than ongoing interest, posters to the message board yesterday spent a great deal of time discussing an unreleased Iomega product -- the clik! drive. Debate about whether the company can release it on time (or close), whether it stands a chance against flash memory and more raged from dawn 'til dusk. Other topics making their way to the board were the Sony drive, Iomega in the media (ads and stories), and even how the VHS/Beta battle of the '80s might reflect the upcoming Sony/Iomega battle -- if there is one. Enjoy! INDEX: Use the Search or Find feature of your word processor to locate the article number (Find: 1++, 3++, etc.) - or use AOL's Edit>>Find in Top Window Feature. If Find in Top Window is dimmed, just click on some text, anything, in the IOM Today window and try again.
1++ Waverunner on being scared of the Sony drive
Recap written and posts compiled by TMF
Weekly. _______________________________ And now, the Best of the Board...Started 9:00pm ET 5/3/98. 1+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: (?) Re: Sony is Solid Conpetition << Not that I know anything in particular, I just thought that those would be some tests that I like to see before I would respond further. So far, I haven't heard or read any eyewitness or even second-hand reports detailing Demonstrations (public or private) of some or most of the above capabilities. Only Claims on the 1.44MB compatibility. But that may be just me. If someone knows anything different, please post, let us know and enlighten us. Thank you very much in advance. >> I didn't mean to be too flippant when I posted the quote from my, uh, the Sony Newsletter. Part of my LOL was the fact that the quote stated they were coming out with the drive to compete with the Iomega Zip drive. There was NO MENTION of the LS 120. So obviously the article writer feels SuperDisk is not a factor. IMHO, the backward compatibility zealots will choose between these two drives IF THE HiFUD in fact exists in a functional manner. Ifthe recent questions regarding Zip reliability are in fact creating reluctance among OEM's, imagine the added reluctance to the totally unproven and untested HiFUD. In fact, recent reliability problems with Zip, if true and correctable, should allow Zip to maintain market share supremacy. How long has Swan promised a backward compatible drive? They even had a prototype...........obviously it's continued absence doesn't reflect well on the ease ofcreating the backward technology. Sony came in #1 in worldwide brand name recognition in the 1998 Harris survey. But Sony's brand name is not going to sell the HiFD to the buyer of a Hewlett Packard, Compaq, or Dell computer. The brand name recognition will not be a factor in Sony's favor IF THE VAPOR EXISTS, especially in a computer storage device. I'll LOL again if in fact the Sony drive makes it into any computer. I can hear it being described now. "It's like a Zip drive butit reads floppys." Sony is desperately trying to save the floppy. The Mavica was introduced last August. It went straight to the top of the best selling digital camera list. In October Sony announced the HiFD. Without floppy capability in PC's, the Mavica is dead. When the clik! comes out, if it in fact works, the Mavica is dead anyway. Last fall Sony made a big splash announcement about their huge push behind MiniDisk. LOL again, this was at least the third time i've heard Sony say that it will be huge in the USA. Anybody know anyone clamoring for mini-disk? BTW, they are real nice. And I was told at PC Expo 1996 that they were going to use in digital cameras. Has anyone seen one yet? BTW, I got a new Gateway Magazine today.....they show Zips more prominently again. PS The HiFD would make it a real pain-in-the-*** to use my Mavica. Now I just transfer the pictures on the floppy to my Zip drive. With a HiFD I'll have to copy the files to a folder on my hard drive, and then transfer them back to a HiFD disk? LOL again. Sorry. I'm not intimidated by Sony. 2+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: U.S. Snooze vs Iomega A two-page article in the 11 May issue of this mag purports to cover the major players in the removable storage market for PC's. The Infobabe author is either uninformed on her subject or has some bias against Iomega. Shows a photo of the Zip Plus at $200, parallel port. No mention of the SCSI capability. Also no mention of the ATAPI or regular old PP Zip at considerably lower prices and the speed advantage of the ATAPI. Says the LS-120 and Sony HiFD are battling to become the standard. Thinks the HiFD will win and be worth the wait until it actually becomes available in the marketplace. Loves the SparQ because it is inexpensive and easy to install via a parallel port. Also "handles even heavy-duty video games quite nimbly, very nearly on a par with a hard disk". (That must be a very fast PP or a slow hard disk) Jaz 2GB handles twice as much data as SparQ but "can be a pain for all but veteran PC users to install because it requires installing a SCSI card. That is supposed to make for faster performance, but the payoff in speed isn't great enough to justifu Jaz's $650 prive tag". It seems to me that Iomega just can't get a fair shake in the mainstream media and it's at least partially their own fault for confusing the public with the overpriced Zip Plus and no 200MB edition. The author does allow as to how the Zip is the most popular for now with some 13,000,000 out and counting. I note a decided pick up in LS-120 ads, both in print and on the tube. The LS-120 for notebooks seems quite compelling. If I were an average computer user looking for removable storage and went to one of the big specialty stores or mail order giants, I doubt very much that I'd end up with an Iomega product now, UNLESS compatibility with friends and business associates was the overriding consideration. 3+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Sigma six initiative? Harry states: << There has not been any indication that I am aware of that would lead us to believe that these drives and disks are ready for mass production or consumers hands. >> Do you think Harry that IOM would send over 100 Clik! drives to various companies like Microsoft, Kodak, Polaroid, 3Com and many others for evaluation if they were not ready for prime time? With all due respect Harry, I think maybe you might re-read my two posts of the annual meeting again much more closer along with the SI posts on that subject posted to this board about April 21st. << It's one thing for IOM engineers to handle the drive and disks and totally another for you or me to handle the drive and disks. >> I personally handled three different Clik! drives. Copied, moved and erased files to it and from it. Download info from the web and uploaded E-Mail to the web. All worked quickly and flawlessly. Believe me I am not an engineer are anywhere close to being one. << Citizen is assisting in development as late as 3-23-98. It's interesting that they used the term Co-development. In the past didn't other companies report that they developed improvements for the Zip product line that they licensed back to IOM? Why now the use of the term Co-development unless IOM needs Citizens help to bring this product to market? >> Again my report clearly states that Citizens is a "World master of miniturization" that is it is World Class (no other can match them) which IOM partnered with to help design all the various uses of Clik! for PDA's cell phones, and the like. Remember the dimensions and configurations of these products are quite dissimilar. With respect to NEC & MCi, neither are trend setters or leaders, but are followers. Dell & Compaq are true leaders therefore most of IOM's attention was channeled thier way. I agree neither NEC or MCI have been that fruitful to date. However with respect to the Clik! market studies have shown that the Japanese absolutely love and buy small devices, so ergo, the Clik! should be a big hit in Japan as well as elsewhere. << As late as 4-21-98 they are still talking about the 2nd half of 1998. That's 2 months before the beginning of the second half and they still can't pin it down any better than that. I personally believe that we will be lucky to even see limited quantities of Clik by the end of the year. That's being optimistic. >> I understand why you would think this way, however, you probably don't know that all major manufacturers of computers, PDA's, Cell phones, Digital Cameras, etc. take about 9 months in their evaluation process. In addition the coordination of their various divisions with IOM's takes time. The announcements must be coordinated. IOM is rteady months before they are. These are all big companies that move slowly. These aren't excuses these are statementsI culled from various techies, officers, and division managements over the past 6 months or so. It is not my guess or opinions but theirs. I think you are way too pessimistic on when the Clik! will appear in vendors products. I hope this helps all in understanding what is occurring. Good questions Harry. Keep our brains churning and thinking! 4+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Clik in 98? (was Re: Sigma six initiative?) The laptop Zip was very late. Jaz 1 was expected before Iomega promised and came a bit after originally promised. Buz was late but was not an important product. Jaz2 was late a couple of months. N.Hand was suppose to be out last December but nobody wanted that product without modifications according to tech media. Zip was ontime afaik. SCSI Insiders were on time. IDE Zips were a few weeks later than Micron advertised. ATAPI Zips were on time. 12.7mm laptop prototypes are ahead of schedule. Will Clik be on time? Who knows. But the evidence is not so onesided as pessimists seem to believe. The ATAPI drive was the most important product to be introduced last year (getting in the box was the #1 priority) and was out on time. The laptop Zip was the most dismal showing (or was it just the most optimistic projection?). However, the laptop Zip beat the laptop LS-120 which had promised to be out in Dec. 96 I think. I think that even the most ardent pessimist has got to agree that the Clik has a chance of debuting this year at some point. I have to agree with Dan that an $8 or lower share price reflects no chance for Clik this year, if ever. PC Expo is early June and should provide plenty of information on the status of Clik. 5+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Clik's Future I don't believe I'm being negative or pessimistic, simply realistic as to Iomega's track record when it comes to getting products out when they say they will. Skeptical? You betcha. But when it comes to products hitting the store shelves "on time", I think a bit of skepticism has been well earned here. << Its coming out this year. And it aint built into the stock price. >> Dan-how would you factor Clik into the stock price? If, to you, there doesn't seem to be any extra valuation in Iomega's stock price due to Clik, perhaps that's because many folks, even those who follow the company closely and understand the potential for cheap storage in digital cameras and other hand held devices, don't have a clue as to how successful the product will be. I can see many possible scenarios when Clik hits the market, each of which would result in radically different effects on Iomega's stock price. Can you tell me which of the following will come true? 1. Clik The Conquerer The Clik drive is a major runaway smash hit. The Titanic of the digital world. Camera OEM's are lined up at the door in Roy waiting to sign contracts. 6 months after it hits the market most digital cameras either come with a Clik drive built in, or are sold along with an external Clik drive. Cameras that don't have Clik associations are considered inferior products in magazine reviews. Clik disk sales are phenomenal, as folks gobble up the new digital film of the 21st Century. Each drive generates sales of at least 15 to 20 disks, as the availability of Clik results in affordable mega-pixel cameras becoming the norm, replacing the cheap crap that's out there now. The Great Clik Disk Cash Cow roars a mighty MOOOOOOO!!!!! 2. Clik The Frustrating The Clik drive is a major runaway smash hit. The Titanic of the digital world. Camera OEM's are lined up at the door in Roy waiting to sign contracts. 6 months after it hits the market most digital cameras either come with a Clik drive built in, or are sold along with an external Clik drive. Cameras that don't have Clik associations are considered inferior products in magazine reviews. Clik disk sales, however, are a major disappointment. Folks realize that it's cheaper to transfer their photos off the relatively expensive MB/$ Clik disks onto the cheaper Zip disks. While this results in slightly higher Zip disk sales, only 2 or 3 Clik disks are sold per drive. The Great Clik Disk Cash Cow moans a barley perceptible moo. 3. Clik The Niche Player The Clik drive is a minor failure. Mixed reviews, price and convince of the external drive leave it with mild interest from OEM's. Since most cameras already come with some form of built in storage, many consumers view it as just another piece of unnecessary equipment to buy and lug around, and decide the expensive external drive balances out the cost of expensive flash memory cards. Clik is a niche player bought by professional photographers needing huge amounts of removable storage for their cameras who don't mind another piece of equipment in the camera bag, and loyal Iomega shareholders. The Great Clik Disk Cash Cow moans a barley perceptible moo. 3. Clik The Defeated It eats too much power. Between the drive and the disks there are too many moving parts to make it something folks can stuff in their pockets, backpacks or suitcases without a part breaking. Attaching the external Clik drive to the bottom of digital cameras make them too bulky and more inconvienent to use. The price of Flash Disks takes a major drop. Mega-pixel cameras remain too expensive for the mass consumer market, and folks realize that what's out there now is mostly crap. All these things combine to defeat Clik. The Great Clik Disk Cash Cow dies of Mad Cow disease. 6+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Sony is Solid Conpetition << ..beta...consumer failure.. >> Beta wasn't a consumer failure. It came out ahead of VHS, was an immediate success even with the horrendously high price of the first VCRs ($800 and up in 1980-81 dollars) and it could easily have been the standard instead of VHS, which it beat in quality, except that ... Sony refused to make the Beta format available to any other manufacturers, while the inferior (but not by enough for consumers to care) VHS was made quickly and widely available(I believe Matsushita owned the patents...???). The price of a VHS machine soon dropped below the Beta and VHS makers soon dominated. Sony was very slow to license their technology to anyone else and even though movie studios still produced Beta versions of every release that went to video well into the late '80s because of the faithful corps of Beta lovers, Sony never recovered from their initial greedy mistake and the Beta died. You could theorize that this is analgous to why the PC eventually buried Apple so deep: IBM let the clonemakers flourish instead of trying to kill them off or seal them off, while Apple stubbornly kept hold of every piece of its ever-shrinking pie. If Apple had let its superior technology loose in the '80s it might be king of the hill today. But all that said, I'm not sure if any of the analogies hold up in Zip vs. HiFd. VHS makers didn't face a huge installed base of Betas when they went to market; Beta had a lead, but a necessarily small one because of the high cost of owning a VCR. It was easy to catch up Iomega has a substantial lead and did not make the mistake of keeping the manufacture of the drives and disks solely to itself; from the start Iomega has let other companies, including Sony, in on a portion of the Zip's success through licensing of the Zip drives and disks. Also, Iomega already has lived through a series of production problems and snafus with the the Zip, hysterical ``clicking death'' stories aside. Sony hasn't even finished making the drive, let alone started producing it. It's hard to believe there won't be some kind of hurdles facing Sony. And for all its might, Sony is coming out with essentially a 200mb drive attached to a floppy drive that is approaching obsolescence. If someone needs a new floppy drive AND they've been thinking about a Zip, then the Sony might be appealing IF the HiFd sells for the same price as a Zip or close to it. I think the aftermarket is going to be very tough for Sony to crack. The key for Sony is OEMS, convincing them, quickly, to scrap the floppy drive and plug in the HiFd as a de facto new standard. IF they can do that at a price the OEMs can afford to pay without losing customers after passing along the costs, Sony could outflank Iomega completely. But Imation is a pretty big company too and so far the LS-120 has had only marginal success withbackwards compatibility. Whatever. 7+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: Re: Sandisk Answer Questions Guys, you have posed some excellent questions. Here are the answers that I know. Can Click vary capacity later? That is go later to 80 MB cartridges while remaining compatible with existing drive mechanisms? I don't believe this would be technically straightforward - consider Zip; will Iomega be able to just sell 200Mb cartridges which will work with existing Zip drives? SanDisk is unique as the actual cartridge contains the drive and controller so it's just like removing your hard drive and putting another one in it's place. Does anyone know of Iomega's statements in this direction? Some technical data from the two companies web sites: Warm-Up Times SanDisk: Sleep to Write 2.5 msec max Click!: 0.5 sec Transfer Times SanDisk: 4.0 MB/Sec Burst. No published sustain rates Click: 0.7 MB/Sec avg 1.0 MB/Sec Max I believe the primary reason for the delay between clicking on an image and time it takes to show up in the LCD monitor of digital cameras is due to compression. Typically, images are stored compressed JPEG and that can be pretty intensive, especially as some of these devices have very little RAM (sometimes none at all) to work with. Operating Shock SanDisk: 1000G Click!: 1G Power Consumption SanDisk: 200 ua Click!: not reported. Expect quite a bit higher MTBF SanDisk: 1 million hours Click!: 100,000 hours Also, someone was asking about Hitachi and a few other companies which make compatible products. All of these products are produced under cross/patent licenses with SanDisk. Hitachi had some patents which SanDisk needed to license so the royalties were somewhat diminished due to that with Hitachi. However, 25% of SanDisk revenue from last quarter came from royalties from companies such as Hitachi. On the cost of the SanDisk products. I have some more info. EE Times reported (May 4, 98 page 80) SanDisk bagan samples of their 128-MBit flash chip. It's two chips, one memory and one a special controller. These two chips produce a 16 MB flash card. Volume shipments available this month. OEM Cost: $65 On the cost for a 40 MB flash. The customer could purchase 3 16MB cards for 48MB to gain equilivant memory as the 40MB Click! Capacity is clearly the weak point for SanDisk. How important is this to customers? Don't know. Anyone with digital cameras care to comment? One thing, in 3 years you can buy a higher capacity cartridge for much less cost. 40 MB at the cost of $99 within 3 years sounds reasonable given the brutal competitive pricing of memory. I would expect the camera manufacturers to continue shipping with lower capacity flash cards in order to keep the camera cost down. Then the customer would buy higher capacity cards as needed. That would mean that from a cost comparison to the camera manufacturer, the SanDisk products are about the same proce or probably cheaper than Click!. One thing we shouldn't forget, SanDisk has the same positon in Cameras that Zip has in the PC market. It's entrenched, especially in the next generation of high res cameras comming out this Christmas. Reminds me of the kind of situation Sony will have when they compete with Zip. I own Iomega stock and am about to get some SanDisk. I think both companies have excellent products with razer/razer blade style revenue streams thanks to their patent positions. I do believe Click! is going to have difficult acceptance in Digital cameras. _______________________________
End Report. Posts covered through 9:00pm ET 5/5/98
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