Watch Out for That Asteroid!

[News flash! Recent data from astronomers has ruled out any chance of this asteroid striking Earth in 2029. So you can breathe deeper now -- but read on, because the point of this article remains important.] 

Here's a bit of news for you, courtesy of those who stay up late looking through telescopes -- the nice people on our galactic night watch. It seems that a recently discovered asteroid is heading our way. It's about 1,300 feet long -- roughly the length of four football fields. It's also about as long as the Empire State Building is high, or longer than 5,000 Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE: KKD) lined up end to end.

Its estimated time of arrival is 2029, a mere 24 years away. Its whacking into Earth would be a rather serious event, with some potentially nasty results, such as tsunamis or the flattening of one or more metropolitan areas.

Fortunately, though, this asteroid's collision with our beloved planet is not a sure thing. In fact, the odds of impact are estimated to be around 1 in 300. (And once astronomers learn more about it, the risk could well lessen.)

So why am I boring you with this story? Because the odds are interesting, especially when compared with lotteries. Here in Fooldom, we've long urged our readers not to gamble on lotteries with anything more than a few entertainment dollars. This asteroid is a good reason why.

Think about how you're reacting to this astronomical news. Are you planning to save less money, since you probably won't live more than 24 more years? Have you suddenly decided not to have any children? Are you grinning broadly, thinking of that low rate you got for a 30-year mortgage? Probably not. A collision is just not very likely, you're thinking. Well, then, if you buy lottery tickets, ask yourself why -- since winning a big payoff is (astronomically) much less likely.

Here are some statistics from Mike Orkin, author of Can You Win? The Real Odds for Casino Gambling, Sports Betting, and Lotteries:

• The odds of winning the California Super Lotto Jackpot are 1 in 18 million.
• The odds of winning the Lotto Jackpot are about 1 in 14 million.
• If one person purchases 50 Lotto tickets each week, he or she will win the jackpot about once every 5,000 years.

So go ahead and continue investing in stocks for the long haul. Go ahead and plan for a long and comfortable retirement, too. And if, in 24 years, a big rock hits you on the head, well... I didn't say it was impossible, just very unlikely.

Longtime Fool contributor Selena Maranjian does not own shares of any companies mentioned in this article.