Post of the Day
June 18, 1999
Posts selected for this feature rarely stand alone. They are usually a part of an ongoing thread, and are out of context when presented here. The material should be read in that light.
Subject: good morning Viet Nam!
I just spent a couple of days with my wife watching people hit golf balls at the practice rounds at the U.S. open. I turned on my computer this morning and found 300 plus posts!!!! Thank you IFK, for striving mightily to at least add a long term perspective for those engaged in short term panic.
I think when I was reading the Yahoo! message board in October of 1998 the panic master was Laertes35. The stock had already fallen from $91 per share to the 40's or so, and he patiently explained to us dullards why the world economies were collapsing, and why this was the 'real crash.' Many of us did panic and sell. The stock subsequently ran to 106, split, and back up to 155, and Laertes disappeared.
In January, after the fall from 155 to the 90's HowardStern was the Yahoo! doom master. This time the reason we should sell was because of 'sector rotation.' Many of us again panicked and sold. Then there was a run back up from 82 to 330, and subsequently yet another split.
|"In the end, the only thing solid you will find to stand on is yourself, based upon your own research, making a plan that you are comfortable with, which works for you."|
After the fall to from 330 (or, 165 adjusting for the latest split, our newest 'doomer' is AWF, urging us to sell after the fall from 165 to about 90. Many of us will again panic and sell. This time the reason is 'inflation and interest rate fears.'
Could the stock have continued to fall to zero last fall? Yes, but it didn't. Could it have fallen to zero this winter? Yes, but it didn't. Could it fall to zero now? Yes. Will it? Time will tell. If the opposite happens and it runs up to the 200's and splits again, will AWF come back to help, or disappear like the others?
In the meantime, thanks to all who urge us to temper our greed when the stock shoots out of sight, and also to plan for the subsequent drops rather than wait for panic to dictate our actions.
A note to Simoon who said during one of the dips "I need something to stand on." There is a twerpy little singer whose music I usually despise, who still wrote a real nice lyric (Michael Jackson) "I'm starting with the man in the mirror. I'm asking him to change his ways. If you want to change the world take a look at yourself and make a change..." There are lots of people out there who will offer you advice, ranging from Rimpinths "the sky is falling! The Sky is falling!", all the way to others who advise, "with 100% equities, combined with maximum margin, leaps and options, you can make a 10,000% return in one year!" And the rest of us are in the middle somewhere. In the end, the only thing solid you will find to stand on is yourself, based upon your own research, making a plan that you are comfortable with, which works for you.