Post of the Day
September 2, 1999

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Re: A brief ray of sunshine

Author: woozler

Just out of curiosity, are you a short-term investor woozler?

You've got me, I admit it. For the last 20 years every morning (or whenever I think of it) I say to myself I think I will keep the 70 percent of our portfolio that is in GE and BRK as it is. (Currently, for bearish little concerns that are all my own the remaining 30% is mostly in BRK - some small amount in an "in the money short position" on the NASDAQ.)

But if I ever think I won't, then we won't.

And perhaps even worse , if I had a crystal ball 18 months ago and knew then what was going to happen I woulda not only sold all my BRK - I woulda shorted it to the maximum of my ability, bought back at 1900, let it rise to 2600 and sold and shorted again - and been so smug I woulda hugged myself and danced around the block.

In any case, wish I had been a little more of a short term trader of BRK - I knew earlier on (around $2300) that someone was selling a major holding against almost no supporting buying - if I had not been (and continue to be) so sure this bubble is gonna burst I woulda sold then - shoulda, shoulda put it into cash.

As to short term interest and involvement: I am a Denver Bronco fan - does that mean that when they play on Sunday that I should not follow every play and rejoice at the wins and moan at the loses? Or should I stoically wait for ten years and then look back on their won lose record with restrained response.

(Finally in direct answer to your question) I am primarily interested in growth in earnings as a function of risk and current evaluation. I mean, the lower BRK has gone the better it has looked ... sigh.

Hope that assuages your curiosity (for what it's worth)