By Paul Commins (TMF Buster)

Well, there you have it. Mike looks at Larry Ellison and sees James Bond, nimble, suave and effective. Buster looks at the same guy and sees a combination of Oedipus the King, tragically blind to fundamental laws, and Icarus the reckless bird-man, headed toward the sun.

Perhaps this is just a reflection of our personalities. Mike is the sharp, can-do youth to my troubled, world-weary geezer around Fool HQ these days. My hunch, though, is that Ellison himself is with me on the Greek tragedy front. How better to explain his choice of company name, Oracle?

Maybe it's time we moved beyond our fictional comparisons, though, to see which of these two caricatures is best supported by the facts. Let's take a piece-by-piece look at Oracle's multiple lines of expansion.

Customer relationship management software (CRM)
Oracle grew CRM license revenues at a 161% pace, year-over-year, for the quarter ending May 31, 2000, compared to 118% growth for category leader Siebel. Consider, though, that Oracle has been building from essentially zero sales and has been able to exploit Oracle-heavy corporate customers in these early days.

Now that Oracle is on the map and has used up most of its cheap leads, it'll be interesting to see if it can keep up the pace. The recently announced plan to give away part of their CRM package, for free, certainly doesn't signal a competitive advantage. It looks more like a publicity stunt to sell a weak product.

Supply chain planning
Oracle booked its first $27 million in license sales from this product just last quarter. With Internet marketplace building already in full swing, established category leader i2 Technologies grew its license revenues by 89% last quarter to $150 million. i2 also acquired structured catalog developer Aspect Development, adding to its core strength in intelligent planning tools.

Can anybody remember the last time Oracle went outside the company to acquire promising technology? Perhaps Mr. Ellison has an irrational fear of losing total control?

Procurement
Oracle's procurement module posted license revenue growth of 110% to $67 million in the most recent quarter. Pretty impressive, eh? How about in comparison to Ariba's license growth of 744%, to $54 million. Hmm. Who's hot here?

Enterprise resource planning
In the all-out war between long-time, back-office software enemies SAP and Oracle, it's often hard to know who is really ahead. SAP's official response to Oracle's most recent aggressive claim is titled Oracle Fantasy Falls Short. It has to be the most angry, confrontational piece of corporate rhetoric I've ever read. Suffice it to say that this competition will remain intense and demanding of focus.

Database software and application server middleware
Databases are Oracle's traditional stronghold and every indication is that they will continue to be. But, the business doesn't exactly run on momentum. Microsoft's SQL Server stands ready to peck away at market share, at each and every slip. The Oracle application server appears targeted toward current Oracle customers only. The broader e-commerce application server market is already highly competitive, without Oracle's late entry.

Business-to-business marketplace platform
With an early contract to build the Ford (NYSE: F) auto parts exchange, last fall, OracleExchange looked like a primary driver in this business. Since then, however, its fortunes have tumbled. By focusing on horizontal markets, Ariba has jumped to the lead and is rapidly putting together a killer package of third-party commerce services -- perhaps the most lucrative piece of the exchange building business.

On the other hand, Oracle and Commerce One (Nasdaq: CMRC) remain bogged down in the building of industry mega-exchanges, like the parts exchange that grew out of the Ford deal. I can't see Ellison happy for long in this niche, where the aspirations of technology providers will always be secondary to the muscle power of the buyers, the owners of the supply chain. Even in this space, the recent pairing of Commerce One and SAP may push Oracle into third position.

Enterprise application service provider (ASP)
Alas, our hero has stumbled and, again, from a desire to have it all. Swearing that he would never serve Oracle business applications over a third party ASP, Ellison allowed competitors like USinternetworking (Nasdaq: USIX) to fill out their offerings with Oracle competitors. These competing ASPs integrate "best in class" applications from other vendors, behind the scenes, and serve the whole package. Suddenly, Oracle's "end-to-end" advantage is no longer so unique.

Ooops, forgot one...
Man, it's a full time job just listing all of the arenas Oracle has suddenly rushed into. Both Mike and I failed to mention OracleMobile.com. Not content to merely re-work their existing product line for wireless, Ellison decided to jump into this one head first, entering both the wireless portal and content aggregation markets. Can Oracle Optical Networks be far behind?

Remind you of anybody?
Today's technology leaders are masters of focus, planning entrance into new markets along the ruthless ringmaster model. In contrast, Oracle looks to me like a budding IBM (NYSE: IBM) -- a respected player in most every 'Net-centered computing arena, but a leader in none.

Last time I checked, IBM was trading at less than three times sales, symptomatic of sluggish sales and narrow margins. Oracle, at closer to 25 times sales, will be hard-pressed to maintain this level of value playing second-fiddle across such a wide range of product lines.

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