Your hopes for an economic turnaround may have sunk with the news that housing starts just reached an eight-month low. But according to Warren Buffett, that seemingly dire statistic is actually kind of good news.
In June, housing starts (the number of new homes to be built) fell 5%, to an annual rate of about 550,000 units. For comparison, when the housing boom was in full swing back in 2005, that number considerably exceeded 2 million. Quite a difference!
So what's so good about very low starts? Too many homes were built during the boom. Supply outstripped demand, causing prices to fall. In response, we're finally building fewer new homes, so that demand can feed off of extra inventory for a while. As Buffett has explained, "You want to have a bad number for a while."
According to Reuters, Buffett noted that our economic recovery is under way, but we're only about halfway through it. He cited the average long-term housing starts figure of 1.2 million, noting that we'd eventually get back to that figure. But for now, we have to reduce a huge inventory of homes for sale.
Sunnier skies ahead
That bodes well (eventually) for many housing-related companies in America, even beyond the usual suspects. Sure, Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV ) will benefit greatly when starts pick up, since it sells the homes themselves. Others, like Lowe's, USG (NYSE: USG ) , and Fastenal (Nasdaq: FAST ) , sell the hammers and drywall and fasteners that builders use to build homes.
But many other companies will also suddenly feel the wind at their back. Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW ) , the paint purveyor, sells not only to builders but to homeowners as well. Whirlpool and Sears outfit many new homes with appliances. There are lots of products and services tied to the housing market -- not surprising, when you think about how complicated a process buying and setting up a new home is.
Even Buffett's own company, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B ) , has better days ahead. It's heavily involved in everything from real estate brokerages (it owns HomeServices of America, the nation's second-largest brokerage) to furniture companies (such as Nebraska Furniture Mart) to flooring specialists (Shaw Industries).
These are all cyclical companies (as opposed to defensive ones), so savvy investors should expect their fortunes to rise and fall along with the economy. Their periodic low points can be a good time to buy. Our recovery is pretty much inevitable, and according to many, well under way. That means these stocks could be worth a closer look.
Real estate has made many people rich -- but so have technology-heavy stocks. Some of them may be presenting you with the best opportunity of the decade right now.
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