It seems like only yesterday that I was lavishing praise on Applebee's (Nasdaq: APPB). Back in April, I pointed out a plethora of reasons supporting the likelihood that the restaurant chain would sustain its run of moderate growth. I also spoke of strong trends in its market and its ability to keep itself fresh.
Well, so much for that.
For its third quarter, Applebee's posted earnings of $22.1 million, or $0.28 per share, a 23% drop from last year. Minus charges, the company earned $0.31 per share, still missing its guidance of $0.32 to $0.35 per share. And while revenue climbed 8.6% to $305.3 million, it still came up short of expectations.
Although Applebee's did manage its 29th consecutive quarter of same-store sales growth, an increase of 0.9% is nothing to write home about. Company restaurants continue to falter, with comps falling 1.6%. Franchise locations, meanwhile, kept the streak alive, with a 1.8% gain.
A turnaround doesn't appear likely in the near future: Applebee's expects to serve up fourth-quarter earnings between $0.25 and $0.29 per share. The chain also lowered its full-year estimates for the second time, to a range of $1.28 to $1.32 per share.
I'm not exactly sure what's happened to Applebee's lately. Sure, hurricanes and higher energy costs deserve some of the blame, but it seems that the troubles were warming up before those events occurred. Perhaps I overlooked it, but key metrics such as same-store sales had been unimpressive for several quarters.
Despite the company's recent struggles, I don't think current patrons should skip out just yet. Trends continue to point toward an increase in dining out, and Applebee's is well-positioned to continue to be a dining destination for many folks. Its history of modest growth, sustainable expansion plans, and an expanding marketplace should bode well for Applebee's, as well as for its investors who show a little patience. A 233% dividend hike and aggressive stock repurchases should also help appease shareholders in the meantime. If investors can overlook the sluggish earnings and same-store sales results for now, I think they'll be satisfied in the coming quarters.
To see how wrong I was, read "A Polished Applebee's."
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Fool contributor Mike Cianciolo welcomes feedback and doesn't own shares of Applebee's.
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