The Bright Spot in a Gloomy Market

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I know I've said this before, but it's downright ugly out there. Wall Street is in a full-scale panic. Way too many homeowners are underwater on their mortgages. The Dow is dramatically off its high of just more than a year ago, and stock markets around the world are posting similarly nasty returns. News stories aren't sure whether this is stagflation, recession, or the beginning of the next Great Depression.

But if you step away from the financial market, things don't look so bad. They don't look so good, true, but they aren't nearly as dire as all that. The unemployment rate is still reasonable, at 6.7% (the Great Depression saw levels closer to 25%); gasoline prices are back down to reasonable levels; and food price increases are finally moderating.

Even if you look at the corporate world, once you step away from companies heavily dependent on raising new money in the credit markets, there's good news to be had.

Panic-free companies
Even with the market meltdown in full swing, there are still strong companies serving their customers and rewarding their shareholders. For instance, filtration company Pall (NYSE: PLL) just reported a 19% jump in earnings, and engineering company SAIC (NYSE: SAI) saw its earnings rise and confirmed its 2009 outlook.

In fact, on a day the Dow Jones Industrial Average was busy falling another 679 points, one company announced plans to raise its dividend. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, along with its conjoined twin Kinder Morgan Management, announced that it expected to raise its payout to $1.02 per quarter -- up from its most recent quarterly distribution of $0.99, and well above the $0.88 it handed unitholders for the same period last year.

In a market like this, a dividend increase takes guts, confidence, and tremendously strong, reliable cash flow. Yet even that news apparently fell on deaf ears; Kinder Morgan stock still managed to fall by nearly 2% and finished the day with an annualized dividend yield of greater than 9.4%. (It's now around 8.7%.) When the market panics, it panics everywhere.

A way to wait it out
A company with strong performance may see its stock price hammered, based on nothing more than market panic. But as long as its dividend payments are based on real cash thrown off from real operations, they should remain unaffected.

Getting paid somewhere in the neighborhood of 8%-9% to wait for the panic to subside makes living through that panic far more bearable. Of course, not every company will offer such a tempting incentive for you to buy its shares and then sit around waiting for a recovery. But those that do can provide you with tremendous opportunities.

Even if oil pipelines aren't your idea of an ideal investment, Kinder Morgan isn't alone among companies with strong dividends. Just take a look at these companies and their recent dividend activities:

Company

Dividend Yield

Recent Dividend Action

Nucor (NYSE: NUE)

3.20%

Raised it 9.4%

Wisconsin Energy (NYSE: WEC)

3.24%

Raised it 25%

Becton Dickinson (NYSE: BDX)

2.09%

Raised it nearly 16%

Interactive Data (NYSE: IDC)

3.42%

Raised it 33%

US Bancorp (NYSE: USB)

6.14%

Maintained it

That list contains a bank that is maintaining its dividends amid one of the largest financial meltdowns in history. It also has a handful of companies that have posted significant dividend increases, even while the economy is supposedly in shambles. That's pretty much the definition of operational strength, financial fortitude, and dedication to shareholders.

The power of the payout
Increasing dividends, or at least maintaining them, demonstrates the underlying strength of a company's business -- no matter what its share price does. And in a market in which losers get a $700 billion bailout package and winners see their stock prices halved, well, it's a good sign of where the individual investor ought to be looking.

That's why dividends are our primary focus at Motley Fool Income Investor. If a company can buck the trends of a market meltdown, financial collapse, and general economic malaise, and still pay its owners well, it's worth owning. If you're ready to own the kind of companies that have the best chance of overcoming the worst macroeconomic conditions, click here for a 30-day free trial. There's no obligation to subscribe.

This article was first published Oct. 16, 2008. It has been updated.

At the time of publication, Fool contributor Chuck Saletta owned shares of Kinder Morgan Management. US Bancorp is a Motley Fool Income Investor selection. SAIC is an Inside Value pick. The Fool's disclosure policy never panics -- well, almost never.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On December 14, 2008, at 5:35 PM, juliehowe wrote:

    "The unemployment rate is still reasonable, at 6.7% (the Great Depression saw levels closer to 25%)"

    Some economists and financial 'experts' believe that the real unemployment rate is closer to 12.5%. The official government unemployment rates *** do not count** those whose benefits have run out and who are still unemployed. Also, the official unemployment rate doesn't take into consideration the under-employed. I know the sixty-year-old guy I saw get onto a public bus a few weeks ago, wearing a Hot Dog on a Stick uniform (hat included) was only dressed that way because he'd run out of every other choice in his life. (For those of you who live outside of the regions this chain serves, they have great food, but the workers all have to wear a Dr. Seuss-like hat and an equally garish striped uniform that was in fashion when roller derby was popular.)

  • Report this Comment On December 15, 2008, at 10:23 AM, efmagowan wrote:

    I agree dividends are a way to protect your capital while waiting out the craziness.....but it takes some homework to ensure those dividends are sustainable. REITs and shippers were paying well, BUT....... Among other advisories, I subscribe to MFII and appreciate the insight that goes with the recommendations. I also have to agree with juliehowe, unemployment is a bit worse than the gov't figures. Still, this is not my parent's depression (or for many of you, your grandparents'). There are solid companies at fire sale prices right now, we (or at least this middle aged guy) won't see this again. If our economy does a Japan-style fizzle all bets are off - those fire sale prices might remain for a looooong time.

  • Report this Comment On December 15, 2008, at 11:29 AM, KWT8011 wrote:

    6.3 is the upper quartile of historic unemployment in the United States. On average, 6.7 is pretty high.

  • Report this Comment On December 15, 2008, at 11:37 AM, PoliticalStray wrote:

    Bad Example?

    Am I the only amused by those that use the airlines as a positive example of successful bankruptcy restructuring?

    That's like using lawyers and politicians as an example of professions that the command public respect.

    Say a prayer tonight that it never seems like a good idea to ignore REAL public opinion when it comes to your business.

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