Go West, Netflix

Recs

0

If you want to see The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, you can rent it from Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) -- or you can just glance over the company's mid-quarter update.

The Good? Once again, growth has outpaced expectations. Netflix initially guided investors to expect revenue of between $94 million and $99 million. Now, it's raising both bookends by $2 million. Moreover, the company is looking to close out next month with 1.86 million to 1.94 million subscribers, which is also higher than previous expectations.

The Bad? While Netflix closed out 2003 in profitable fashion, it had already braced shareholders for a narrow first-quarter deficit. But, to borrow from another Clint Eastwood epic, the loss is going to be A Fistful of Dollars more than the $1.2 million to $3.7 million expected. Netflix is now looking to post a quarterly loss of at least $5.6 million and possibly as high as $8.1 million. The shortfall might be explained away as the acquisition cost of the company's heady market penetration, but the market isn't buying.

The Ugly? While the shares moved higher initially, they ultimately dipped in after-hours trading. Often, Wall Street will look beyond a bit of red ink to focus on sensational growth; however, stocks that come so far, so fast are priced with high expectations. We first highlighted Netflix in the October 2002 edition of TMF Select -- now Tom Gardner'sMotley Fool Hidden Gems -- at a split-adjusted $5.45 a share. It's still a gem, but it's not exactly hidden anymore.

For all that, the fear of competitive threats from the likes of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) are overblown. Clearly, Netflix has had little difficulty growing its empire despite the entry of two heavy hitters. That said, shifts in technology -- high-speed online delivery in particular -- can prove to be worrisome down the road.

The company's working on it and that's a good thing. Not having a solid game plan for tomorrow would be best described as -- help me here one last time, Clint -- Unforgiven.

With so many Oscar-worthy flicks hitting the rental market these days, have any that you would care to recommend? What was the best Clint Eastwood film of all time? It wasn't Space Cowboys, was it? All this and more -- in the Great Movies discussion board. Only on Fool.com.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has been a satisfied Netflix user since 2002. He also owns shares. The stock also offered a 180% gain last year in Motley Fool Stock Advisor newsletter.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

Be the first one to comment on this article.

Compare Brokers

TD AMERITRADE
more info
ShareBuilder
more info
Power E*Trade

more info
Scottrade
more info
Fool Disclosure

DocumentId: 505808, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 11/30/2009 7:00:40 PM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...

The Must-Read Story on Fool.com
The Public Health-Care Plan's Problem

Related Tickers

11/30/2009 4:01 PM
BBI $0.63 Up +0.03 +4.98%
Blockbuster, Inc. CAPS Rating: *
WMT $54.55 Down -0.08 -0.15%
Wal-Mart Stores, I… CAPS Rating: ****
NFLX $58.63 Up +0.78 +1.35%
Netflix, Inc. CAPS Rating: ***

Community: Investing Wiki

Term Of The Hour

Pro forma: Pro forma means "for form" or "for form's sake" and is from the Latin. For financial statements, it is an "as-if" situation.

Want to learn more or edit this definition?
Click here to read more!