The TiVo Paradox

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Would you rather be rich or popular? That's the question that TiVo (Nasdaq: TIVO) shareholders should be asking themselves. With the number of subscribers doubling to 1.6 million over the past year, the pioneer in digital video recorders is sporting the Miss Congeniality sash, but will it ever don the tiara of Miss Profitability?

Last night, the company reported impressive growth -- everywhere short of the bottom line. TiVo tacked on 264,000 new users, most coming as a result of a partnership with DirecTV (NYSE: DTV). Net revenues rose by just 21%, but $22.2 million of a total $34.5 million were service revenues, which soared by 74% year over year.

So, you say you love TiVo? You can't live without it and want to back that adoration with equity ownership? You're smitten, bought a ring, and want to make a Mrs. out of Miss Congeniality? You're not alone. Our own Motley Fool Stock Advisor singled out the stock months ago. However, you may want to hold off on setting that date until the company proves it can be profitable.

The April quarter bears that out with a cruel paradox. The net loss widened even as TiVo's per-share loss shrank from $0.12 to $0.11. How so? Well, shares outstanding zoomed from 64 million to 80 million. Want to throw some salt into the open wound of that cruel paradox? Even though diluted shares rose by nearly 25%, cash, assets, and equity have all fallen.

You can take comfort in knowing that you can buy TiVo cheaper today than when institutional investors acquired 8 million new shares at $9.30 earlier this year -- or you can cock a brow and wonder why that's the case, and realize that the devil is in the diluted details.

The saving grace is that TiVo does expect to turn the corner and produce sustainable profitability by the end of the next fiscal year. If so, that would go a long way toward overcoming the need to print new shares at an alarming rate. TiVo's got such a great story to tell. Ask any subscriber, and you'll hear that it's got a great service to sell, too.

Great! But the company has to go that extra mile and dig itself out of the red if it wants to carve the same growth path as more successful Stock Advisor pioneers like Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) and eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) have done. Nice sash, TiVo. Now go for the tiara.

Are you a TiVo subscriber? Do you swear by the service or were you left expecting more from the experience? What about the company's competition? All this and more -- in the TiVo discussion board. Only on Fool.com.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has been happy with his TiVo for a couple of years. He owns shares in Netflix.

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