It isn't easy being a bellwether. While I trust that Google (Nasdaq: GOOG ) is more than happy to be public, the daily dissection must feel pretty exhausting sometimes. Following a "Honeymoon may be over" teaser headline on MarketWatch (Nasdaq: MKTW ) last night led to a story about American Technology Research advising investors to buy Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO ) while shorting shares of Google.
Let's get into that honeymoon first. If you recall, the company was set to go public somewhere between $105 and $135 a share. Market apathy eventually had the company settling on going public at just $85 a stub. So to have the stock climb up and over the $135 mark (as it did this past week) has to be sweetly gratifying to shareholders -- as well as a bitter pill to swallow for the traditional underwriters who blasted Google's Dutch auction approach to going public, fearing obsolescence.
So is American Technology Research right? Is now the perfect time to bail on Google and try to profit from a possible decline by selling it short?
The timing of the proposed trade is definitely gutsy. With Yahoo! reporting this afternoon, it's hard to fathom a scenario where Google doesn't follow Yahoo! on sentiment alone. If Yahoo! climbs on a stronger online advertising market, Google's shackled to those coattails. If Yahoo! disappoints, those coattail shackles aren't going anywhere.
Yet it's also a daring call because Google reports later this month, and there really hasn't been any kind of indication that the quarter will fail to impress.
Granted, Google can hit it out of the park and still see its shares falter. On a valuation basis, it's hard to say that the company's shares are cheap these days, and insiders may be tempted to cash out at these lofty levels in the coming months.
However, Google has grown its revenue by 141% so far this year on rich margins. While three years ago, the company's take consisted solely of money made on its namesake site and licensing revenue, that makes up only half of the Google revenue pie these days.
That doesn't mean that Google can justifiably trade at any price it pleases, but it does indicate that the company has a nasty habit of making pundits pay.
Would you buy Yahoo! over Google today? What do you think is a fair price for the stock? How will its financials shape up in two weeks? All this and more in the Google discussion board. Only on Fool.com.
Longtime Fool contributor Rick Aristotle Munarriz is a satisfied Google user. However, he does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this story.
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