Taking a look at Teva (Nasdaq: TEVA ) , the large Israeli generic pharmaceuticals company, I have to admit some frustration. Although the stock has behaved pretty much the way I thought it would, I was still hoping that a relatively sparse year for new generics might give me the chance to pick up some cheap shares. So far, at least, no dice.
While day-to-day moves in the stock market are as predictable as a ferret on a sugar buzz, I doubt Tuesday's earnings release is going to invoke the waves of panic selling that would create a buying window for me. Sure, sales were up only 6%, but that was still better than expected. Perhaps some analysts and investors will take umbrage with the fact that the company exceeded earnings guidance and produced year-on-year growth only through the benefit of lower tax expense.
As it was, gross margin eased off just a bit and operating profit fell as the margin contracted by nearly two full percentage points. Nevertheless, Teva still delivered close to $400 million in operating cash flow for the quarter.
Although 2005 wasn't a great year for generics on the whole, 2006 is shaping up to be pretty interesting for Teva. Not only will the company look to build on an already successful launch of generic Allegra, but also there should be new business from a generic form of Bristol-Myers' (NYSE: BMY ) Pravachol and Pfizer's (NYSE: PFE ) Zithromax. There is also the possibility of some sort of settlement with Forest Labs (NYSE: FRX ) regarding Lexapro. As investors may recall, IVAX (AMEX: IVX ) has filed suit against Forest Labs challenging its patent, and Teva is in the process of acquiring IVAX.
It should also be noted that Teva is no slouch with its own proprietary programs. Copaxone sales were up 27% in this quarter, and the drug has nearly one-third market share. Also, the company continues to work with the Food and Drug Administration in an attempt to get its Agilect drug for Parkinson's to the market. Turning back to Copaxone for a quick second, while the relaunch of Tysabri (from Elan (NYSE: ELN ) and BiogenIdec (Nasdaq: BIIB ) ) wouldn't be great news for Teva if it happens, safety concerns could help to mitigate the damage to Copaxone sales.
I'll still keep hoping that the market's recurrent bipolar disorder will give me a chance to get Teva shares within my margin of safety. Maybe it'll be from a patent setback or a new item like a Tysabri relaunch. In either case, I'll just bide my time for now.
For more non-generic takes on pharmaceuticals:
Pfizer is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation; Biogen Idec is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick. For more stock ideas, click here.
Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).
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