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Whom Did Starbucks Disappoint?

It's far more interesting to talk about same-store sales at Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX  ) when it's disappointed investors. For this company, it's out of the ordinary, and even a bit amusing.

Before we delve into the details, let's ask an important question: Did Starbucks really disappoint? If so, who did the company disappoint? The company's guidance predicted same-store sales growth of 3% to 7%. The 6% growth Starbucks registered landed squarely within that range; it's a solid performance, given the company's 7% same-store sales gain in the year-ago quarter.

To see 6% as a disappointment requires a different and more demanding set of assumptions than management provided. Given Starbucks shares' frequently rich valuation, this sort of investor optimism isn't surprising, but it doesn't seem wise overall.

Reacting in a largely positive or negative manner also requires putting a great deal of weight on one month's worth of same-store sales data, ignoring the possibility that the company might recoup a small shortfall in same-store sales via greater efficiencies in other parts of the business. CFO Michael Casey highlighted this when I asked him which topic investors misunderstand most about Starbucks. I happen to agree with Mr. Casey, and my colleague, Alyce Lomax, recently penned an excellent piece on the unrealistic conclusions some investors draw from small pieces of information such as same-store sales.

That said, I'm not surprised to see Starbucks shares trading down 5%-6% on the news. When a company is valued so highly that only great results justify its valuation, very good results will cause the market to hiccup. Just ask shareholders of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) or Whole Foods Market (Nasdaq: WFMI  ) . That volatility doesn't make these companies' shares immediately attractive, but it does help put Starbucks' recent turmoil in perspective.

Whole Foods and Starbucks are Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendations. Find more great stocks from David and Tom Gardner's list of favorites with a free 30-day guest pass.

At the time of publication, Nathan Parmelee owned shares in Starbucks, but had no interest in any of the other companies mentioned. The Motley Fool has an ironclad disclosure policy.


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Related Tickers

5/23/2012 4:00 PM
WFM $86.38 Down -0.51 -0.59%
Whole Foods Market CAPS Rating: ****
SBUX $55.29 Up +1.92 +3.60%
Starbucks CAPS Rating: ***
AAPL $570.56 Up +13.59 +2.44%
Apple CAPS Rating: ***

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