For-profit educator Lincoln Educational
What analysts say:
- Buy, sell, or waffle? Half a dozen analysts follow Lincoln. One says buy, one says sell, and everyone else votes hold.
- Revenues. On average, they're looking for 6% quarterly sales growth to $87 million.
- Earnings. Profits, in contrast, are predicted to decline 23% to $0.37 per share.
What management says:
Since reporting Q3 earnings back in November, Lincoln has said little of interest, with one notable exception. In late February, the firm announced the completion of a nationwide "rebranding" effort. Henceforth, the majority of its campuses will bear the Lincoln name, with eight being known as the "Lincoln College of Technology" and 21 more as "Lincoln Technical Institute." The eight campuses falling outside the rebranding effort include Nashville Auto Diesel College, several campuses of Southwestern College, and two Euphoria Institutes.
Mere window dressing, you say? Not entirely. For one thing, fewer names means fewer different advertising efforts. With most of the campuses now operating under the "Lincoln" moniker, advertising costs should decline a bit as one (or rather, two) commercials should do the trick to advertise 'em all.
What management does:
Advertising aside, Lincoln's margin trends don't look half bad. Gross margins have been slipping a bit, but both operating and net margins are generally higher today than they were a year ago. When weighed against the competition, that puts Lincoln somewhere between peer for-profit educators ITT Educational
|
6/05 |
9/05 |
12/05 |
3/06 |
6/06 |
9/06 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Gross |
59.1% |
58.7% |
59.5% |
59.1% |
59.0% |
58.5% |
|
Operating |
8.3% |
8.3% |
11.5% |
12.1% |
12.1% |
12.0% |
|
Net |
4.0% |
4.3% |
6.3% |
6.8% |
7.0% |
5.8% |
One Fool says:
Looking deeper into the financials, however, we do find signs of weakness at Lincoln. The last two quarters in particular have shown that the growth in cost of services provided is outpacing sales growth, 12% to 9% year over year. Operating costs are relatively lower, however, rising just 8% in the last two quarters, and the brand-streamlining might help keep that trend going.
I say "might" rather than "will" because in last quarter's earnings report, management observed that it's having trouble attracting new students in a strong employment market. Prospective students, who are able to find jobs without a Lincoln degree, are understandably difficult to convince that they need such degrees. And so Lincoln promised to advertise more in order to sway their decisions its way. If it follows through on this promise, that could push advertising costs up regardless of the name changes, and push operating margins down further.
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Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own shares of any company named above.
