Foolish Forecast: Road Warrior to Roadkill at Fleetwood Enterprises

Manufactured home and recreational vehicle (RV) manufacturer Fleetwood Enterprises (NYSE: FLE  ) continues to battle significant headwinds in both of its business segments. Investors already know that sales fell significantly in fiscal 2007, and they will learn just how much money the company lost when Fleetwood releases fourth-quarter and full-year results tomorrow.

What analysts say:

• Buy, sell, or waffle? Six analysts currently follow Fleetwood. One is bullish, one isn't, and the rest can't make up their minds and have a hold rating on the stock.
• Revenue. Sales are expected to come in at $541.7 million, down 10% from the previous year.
• Earnings. Analysts project a quarterly earnings loss of $0.31.

What management says:
Back in early May, Fleetwood released preliminary fourth-quarter sales results. Total sales fell 16% to $505 million as RV sales fell 12% and manufactured home sales plummeted 25%. Management also mentioned it expected to "sustain a significant operating loss in the fourth quarter, although it is anticipated it will be less than the third quarter loss."

What management does:
As you can see by the chart below, Fleetwood has had a bumpy ride lately in terms of reaching bottom-line profitability. Sales haven't done much, either, as the company has yet to recover from industry turmoil that has now lasted for the better part of a decade.

Margins	10/05	01/06	04/06	07/06	10/06	01/07
Gross	15.8%	16.7%	17.4%	16.9%	15.9%	14.5%
Operating	(2.4%)	(0.7%)	1.5%	1.0%	(0.1%)	(1.6%)
Net	(8.9%)	(6.3%)	(1.2%)	0.0%	(0.8%)	(2.3%)

All data courtesy of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data reflects trailing-12-month performance for the quarters ended in the named months.

One Fool says:
What will it take for Fleetwood to get back on its feet? Well, the RV division is still struggling, but it does appeal to baby boomers who are retiring and hitting the open road with their newfound free time. RV sales will likely account for more than 60% of fourth-quarter sales, so any recovery will benefit Fleetwood and purer-play peers such as Winnebago Industries (NYSE: WGO  ) , Coachmen (NYSE: COA  ) , and Thor Industries (NYSE: THO  ) .

However, the manufactured homes group continues to struggle royally since easy credit and overproduction sent the industry into a prolonged tailspin in the late 1990s. Fellow Fool Emil Lee can't see conditions getting much worse, but the long-awaited turnaround continues to elude investors. Fleetwood competes with the likes of Champion Enterprises (NYSE: CHB  ) , Nobility Homes (Nasdaq: NOBH  ) , and Palm Harbor Homes (Nasdaq: PHHM  ) , and all continue to struggle to make a buck in the embattled industry.

For more related Foolishness:

• Winnebago Finds the Gas
• Winnebago's Tune-Up
• Nobility Homes Still Noble

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Fool contributor Ryan Fuhrmann has no financial interest in any company mentioned. Feel free to email him with feedback or to discuss any companies mentioned further. The Fool has an ironclad disclosure policy.