Get Ready for a 25% Drop

My friend swears he's learned his lesson.

Back in July 1995, this friend -- let's call him Charlie -- bought Microsoft at what turned out to be the highest price it would see that year. The stock was down 15% in no time, and Charlie was worried. He was smart enough to know the market is the best wealth-creating machine available to us regular folks, but stocks to him were sort of like husbands to Elizabeth Taylor. He liked them well enough, but he tended to give up when things got a little rocky.

In a matter of weeks his paper loss was approaching 25%, and he couldn't stand it anymore. He bailed out.

Needless to say, the next few years were even rougher on Charlie as he watched Mr. Softy march steadily higher. It achieved 10-bagger status at the height of the bull market in 2000, but even today it's more than 400% higher than when he sold.

Get ready for a 25% drop
As Tom and David Gardner tell their Motley Fool Stock Advisor members, you have to expect significant dips from some of your stocks, and you must remain firm if you've done your homework. Otherwise, you sort of screw up that legendary investing formula by buying high and selling low.

This table should really drive home the point for you. These are true all-star performers from the past decade, yet investors who bailed out on them missed out on some truly life-changing gains.

Company

10-Year Gain

Largest Drop

Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL  )

328%

81%

Nokia (NYSE: NOK  )

127%

78%

General Dynamics (NYSE: GD  )

226%

52%

Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX  )

234%

53%

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG  )

172%

50%

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX  )

510%

65%

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT  )

1,567%

36%

So, the lesson Charlie learned is that practically all of the great superstar stocks of the past decades have dropped at least 25% at one time or another. It will be very hard for you to find one that hasn't. Interestingly, Starbucks is currently in an even greater decline than the table shows, off 61% from recent highs. This solid company with an enduring brand is probably high on many value investors' watch lists.

Hey, I'll be the first to admit that many stocks drop 25% and keep dropping. That can happen when a business that has no real competitive advantages to begin with gets the rug pulled out from under it. It happened to me several years ago, and like a shell-shocked boxer, I still duck when I hear the name CMGI. (Shudder.)

Lesson learned
We've all learned some things throughout the years. But if, as Tom Gardner says, you can invest for decades, add money to your existing holdings steadily over time, and stay committed to focusing on truly great businesses, you stand to make a fortune.

For the four-plus years since Stock Advisor was launched, the Gardners' recommendations have returned an average of 38% (compared with 0% for the S&P 500). Interested in finding out which stocks to start with? Try a no-obligation 30-day free trial and you'll see Tom and David's five best buys for new money now. Here's more information.

This article was originally published on Jan. 8, 2007. It has been updated.

Rex Moore lathers and rinses, but never repeats. Of the companies mentioned in this article, he owns shares of Microsoft. Microsoft is an Inside Value recommendation. Starbucks is a Stock Advisor and Inside Value pick, as well as a Motley Fool holding. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


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  • Report this Comment On October 02, 2008, at 12:40 AM, sdcougar wrote:

    This HEADLINE at the top of the news column "Headlines" in the yahoo link for POT seems very foolish. I think it has contributed to the big drop in ths stock. Everyone is nervous enough. Then, they see this headline under their stock and don't bother to read any more. Instead, they RUN for cover!

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