You can almost peg the awful performance of KB Home
Here's the headline from today's Census Bureau numbers: "New Home Sales Drop 21.2% (+/- 9%) for the month of August, 2007." Forget the seasonality-biased 8.3% drop the others are reporting, especially because that number comes with a margin of error of +/- 12.4%. (In other words, the monthly change could have been positive, or it could also have been a plus-20% massacre.)
Median prices are proving to be weak as well, dropping 8% from last year's August. That's no surprise. In its recent earnings report, Lennar
With existing home-sales prices falling at a fast and accelerating pace, and a ton of inventory still on the market (8.2 months' worth of new homes, and 10 months worth of used homes), things are primed to get worse for quite a while. Factor in upcoming foreclosures and ARM-reset sales, and you'll know why I believe a flood of supply is going to drown some of the weakest in this business.