Top-Rated Stocks the Leaders Loathe

5 Recommendations

Momentum investors are stock players who get behind companies that have the wind in their sails. Contrarian investors typically pick up the cigar butts the market has tossed aside. So what do you call investors who turn against winners? Sourpusses? Shorts?

Over on Motley Fool CAPS, we sometimes call them the savviest investors around. Not only does the 78,000-strong investor-intelligence community rate thousands of stocks every day, but the players themselves get rated, too. The best of the lot -- what CAPS calls All-Stars -- consistently outperform their peers over time and are assigned ratings of 80 or greater.

When an All-Star player sours on a top-rated stock, perhaps we should take notice. Perhaps the player's found a chink in that highflier's armor, or a question mark in its financial footnotes. Or maybe it's just a hunch. That's why these tables aren't lists of stocks to buy or sell -- just starting points for further research.

Here's a list of stocks that some All-Stars have recently given the thumbs-down to:

Company

CAPS Rating (out of 5)

1-Year Return

CAPS All-Star

Player Rating

Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP)

*****

85.7%

dwot

99.96

Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN)

*****

30.0%*

abitarecatania

92.21

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)

*****

16.6%

mepurcell2

93.43

Metallica Resources (AMEX: MRB)

*****

13.7%

sajosa

93.31

Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN)

*****

-2.0%

DothamYoav

99.15

Sources: CAPS, Yahoo Finance. Paragon Shipping's IPO debuted Aug. 9.

More than 3,500 investors have rated these stocks, with an average 97% of them being bullish on their prospects. Of the All-Stars who've weighed in, 96% also think they'll outperform the market. So what might have turned some of CAPS' top players against these otherwise widely admired companies?

A paragon of bulk shipping
Despite being new to the public markets, Paragon Shipping has come on the dry bulk scene at a time when fleet capacity has bulked up, yet there is still sustained worldwide demand. Dry goods accounted for almost two-thirds of the world seaborne trade in 2005, according to the European Sea Ports Organization. Paragon recently added its 11th vessel to its fleet and has renewed charters at higher prices than previously negotiated.

The risk here is that future contracts won't be so generous. Yet executives at larger shipping companies like DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS) and Excel Maritime (NYSE: EXM) foresee demand remaining high as the markets undervalue the potential of India.

It's the potential for demand outstripping supply beyond 2015 that has CAPS All-Star hondo928 liking the stock:

I am actively seeking to find the best stock amongst all tankers and dry bulks out of Greece, I stumbled upon this one. This is a heavy growth field and as long as China grows will be in demand, but don't forget India's huge population boom that could perhaps produce more growth opportunities for these companies over the next 10 Years. Dry Bulk is growing.

There's a small contingent of CAPS investors who've staked out a bear recommendation, but none has penned a pitch explaining why. The bulls are somewhat more plentiful, and some point to the 9% dividend yield Paragon pays.

For instance, JMB21 is just one player who found the shipper's dividend attractive. He'd been looking for the right play in the industry for awhile and believes he's found it in Paragon.

Tiny drybulk shipping company. I've been looking to get into this industry since 2000 but never found the right company. Silly me. It's a tough company for me to value and the industry might be a bit extended at the moment, but here's what I like about Paragon:

1. Experienced and professional management
2. Locked-in contracts for the next several years that will help weather global economic fluctuations
3. 7% dividend yield when I bought it (9% if you were to buy it now).

Make lemonade from lemons
We know the bull side here, but Motley Fool CAPS is more than what some pros think, even if they're All-Stars. It's where we invite you to share your thoughts and insights and add your voice to the debate. Go ahead, have your say. We're eagerly waiting!

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