Momentum investors love to back companies with the wind in their sails. Contrarian investors typically pick up the cigar butts the market has tossed aside. So what do you call investors who turn against winners? Sourpusses? Shorts?
Over on Motley Fool CAPS, we sometimes call them the savviest investors around. When one of our All-Star players -- those whose stock-picking prowess places them in at least the 80th percentile of our community -- sours on a top-rated stock, perhaps we should take notice. Perhaps the player's found a chink in that highflier's armor, or a question mark in its financial footnotes. Or maybe it's just a hunch. That's why these tables aren't lists of stocks to buy or sell -- just starting points for further research.
Here's a list of stocks that some All-Stars have recently spurned:
|
Company
|
CAPS Rating (out of 5)
|
1-Year Return
|
CAPS All-Star
|
Player Rating
|
|
Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM)
|
*****
|
131.7%
|
dwot
|
99.95
|
|
Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI)
|
****
|
42.2%
|
infoLust
|
99.74
|
|
Honeywell (NYSE: HON)
|
*****
|
38.6%
|
MiamiStuDog
|
95.81
|
|
Apollo Investment (Nasdaq: AINV)
|
*****
|
(15.2%)
|
CraigCa
|
97.35
|
|
Portfolio Recovery Associates (Nasdaq: PRAA)
|
*****
|
(15.3%)
|
ajcmr3
|
98.96
|
More than 4,800 investors have rated these stocks; an average 96% of them are bullish on their prospects, and a like percentage of All-Stars also think they'll outperform the market. What might have turned some of CAPS' top players against these otherwise widely admired companies?
A paragon of dry bulk shipping
Like Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN) last week, Navios Maritime has been enjoying heightened sustained worldwide dry bulk demand. As we noted last week, dry goods account for approximately two-thirds of the world seaborne trade, according to the European Sea Ports Organization. Executives at larger shipping companies like DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS) foresee continuing strong demand as the markets undervalue India's potential.
That's why CAPS All-Star johnnymack91362 likes it. Demand may very well continue to outstrip supply in the years ahead:
Transport of iron ore, steel, wheat etc., is only going to continue growing, as the global econ continues its one world movement...the gloom and doomsayers of shipping over-expansion, in the next 2-3 years, will be proven to have had a broken crystal ball.
That's a view endorsed by CAPS investor UCLAgrdstnt, who considers Navios one of the best-run shippers in the industry:
Dry bulk shipping is still important and NM is one of the best run in the business. A P/E fy 07 of under 12? I call that market defomation. Strong buy if willing to hold throiugh volatility.
Of course, not everyone thinks dry bulk shipping will be sailing on calm seas. Another CAPS All-Star, abitarecatania, likens dry bulk shipping support to the doomed mania of Dutch tulip investors. Our All-Star points to a quote by DryShips' shipping magnate George Economou, denigrating American investors for their seeming willingness to invest in anything and everything:
It was surreal. When someone asked why he was doing the deal, here-now, he actually said, basically, 'Because Americans are the dumbest investors around, and there's lots of liquidity in this market.'
Make lemonade from lemons
We've seen both sides here, but Motley Fool CAPS has room for everyone's opinions -- yours included. Go ahead, have your say. We're eagerly waiting!
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