A 1-in-100 Investor

Presidents are often measured by what they achieve during their first 100 days in office. Schools have parties for students on the 100th day of the school year. When Jerry Yang returned to Yahoo! last summer, he gave himself 100 days to effect change at the online portal.

Here at Motley Fool CAPS, we keep an eye on the 100-day mark, too. Some of our best investors -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved top player ratings after garnering a score of 100 in their first 100 days on CAPS. Analysis has shown that the top-rated stocks have had the best performance over the past year. Might we assume that when the best players rate the best stocks, there's a similar correlation?

One of our highest rated CAPS investors is dwot, who sports a near-perfect 99.98 player rating. A player since October 2006, dwot currently has 183 active picks on CAPS, out of more than 1,148 stock picks made. Achieving better than 78% accuracy, dwot has also attracted more than 255 "groupies," CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Considering the economy lately, dwot has been in a bearish mode. Here are a few of this player's most recent stock selections, and how they were rated.

Stock

CAPS Rating

Call

Price*

Current Score

1-Yr Return

Valence Technology (NASDAQ:VLNC)

**

Underperform

$6.83

(2.26)

261.0%

Visa (NYSE:V)

***

Underperform

$7.23

6.42

N/A 

Clear Channel Communications

**

Underperform

$27.26

(5.83)

(17.4%)

American International Group

***

Underperform

$20.24

(11.50)

(29.1%)

Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM)

*

Underperform

$21.12

(18.80)

(40.3%)

Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX)

***

Underperform

$3.79

0.27

(41.0%)

U.S. Global Investors (NASDAQ:GROW)

****

Outperform

$9.01

(5.58)

(44.7%)

National City (NYSE:NCC)

*

Underperform

$10.72

(5.21)

(71.6%)

CIT Group

**

Underperform

$22.83

(64.90)

(74.8%)

IndyMac Bank (NYSE:IMB)

*

Underperform

$19.95

(1.55)

(82.5%)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
*Price when call was made.
Current score shows by how many points a player is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.

It probably shouldn't be surprising that the financial markets still dredge up negative feelings in investors, and dwot's picks are dotted with such firms. The Federal Reserve's recent bailout maneuvers couldn't have been predicted, though. That might account for some of dwot's underperformance on a number of these picks.

A mutually exclusive opportunity
Despite the bearish sentiment, U.S. Global Investors still earns an outperform nod from dwot. This no-load, open-ended mutual fund has made seemingly prescient calls on the U.S. markets. As dwot writes:

When I saw this guy speak in 2007 he had 37% in cash, well ahead of the problems with the market. He is cautious and well versed in the market. He impressed me immensely with his correct forecast with what was happening in the market and where it was going.

I think this one will out perform the market.

The mutual fund has ridden the surge in commodities and emerging markets in the past, offering some of the best fund returns over the past few years. With the Fed continuing its easy-money policies, U.S. Global Investors seems ideally positioned to repeat its past performance.

CAPS investor greenie0001 recently found that the market is encouraging these types of picks:

This stock did incredibly well for a while, set high expectations, then suffered strongly. It set up for an almost typical combination of an inability to continue growth at the rate set, and a downturn in the general economy. Like several of my other picks, this one is a bounce play. The market in general seems to be encouraging these types of plays. However, this is a pick with legs. I'm not looking for a short term movement so much as a return to it's previous upward trend.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest players in the CAPS investor intelligence community have deposited their opinion on U.S. Global Investors, but we haven't heard yet from you. As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?


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