Foolish Forecast: Qualcomm Holds Its Ground
Wireless technology maven Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) will be stepping up to the plate with its fiscal second-quarter results tomorrow, but even before the first pitch is thrown, we're here with the Foolish lowdown on expected results.
What analysts say:
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Buy, sell, or waffle? Of the 24 analysts that give a professional opinion on Qualcomm, 20 rate shares a buy, three say hold, and one analyst advises a sell. Qualcomm also ranks as a four-star stock (out of five stars) in the Motley Fool CAPS community, based on the views of 1,066 investors.
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Revenue. The average analyst envisions 13% year-over-year sales growth, to $2.5 billion.
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Earnings. The average expectation for profit comes in at $0.52 per share.
What management says:
Qualcomm has proven incredibly resilient in a tough market. CEO Paul Jacobs commented in the company's last quarterly release that "our continued focus on execution allows us to deliver excellent financial results despite the impact of defending our business model."
The defense of its business model refers to the ongoing legal battles with Broadcom and Nokia (NYSE: NOK) over license agreements and appropriate royalties that Qualcomm charges for its technology. The company continues to be optimistic about its chances, though it is planning for a long, drawn-out fight on this front. In the meantime, demand for the company's products continues to grow, with the average wholesale selling price upon which royalties are based expected to hold up above $200 in 2008.
What management does:
Qualcomm has managed its business well in terms of maintaining margins, with the pressure from low-cost chip sales showing a negligible effect on profitability to date.
|
Margins %
|
9/06
|
12/06
|
3/07
|
6/07
|
9/07
|
12/07
|
|
Gross
|
71.0
|
70.5
|
70.5
|
70.3
|
69.8
|
69.5
|
|
Operating
|
36.0
|
33.9
|
33.3
|
32.7
|
32.6
|
33.1
|
|
Net
|
32.8
|
32.0
|
32.1
|
32.5
|
37.2
|
36.8
|
Data courtesy of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data reflects trailing-12-month performance for the quarters ended in the named months.
One Fool says:
At a recent trade show, Qualcomm was very upbeat about the prospects for its embedded wireless chipset, which will give laptops -- from partners such as such as Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) -- a universal broadband wireless link. The solution gives the end consumer Wi-Fi connectivity, as well as the option of wide area connectivity with any service provider -- Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), AT&T (NYSE: T), or Verizon Wireless (the joint venture between Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) and Vodafone) -- all in one low-cost package.
But a slowing economy and the overriding fear that Qualcomm's high-margin royalties may be depleted by Nokia and other wireless vendors will likely weigh on the stock in the near term. Even with the risks, though, the long term still looks good for this cash-flush wireless giant.
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