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Lies, Damned Lies, and Investments

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It happened once again: Shares in a stock were brought low by a mistakenly posted and completely untrue news story based on a death. First, it was the accidental reporting of the pre-written obituary of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) CEO Steve Jobs. Just yesterday, it was the false rumor of the untimely death of a company: United Airlines parent UAL (Nasdaq: UAUA  ) .

In the case of Apple, the damage was minimal because the story ran just as the markets were closing and Bloomberg -- the news outlet that mistakenly ran the obit -- quickly caught the error. Not so with UAL, which for nearly 15 damaging minutes saw its shares cut by as much as 75%. The cause: A six-year old story about UAL's 2002 bankruptcy filing somehow got pushed to the forefront of news sites like Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) , and others ended up running with it.

Did you hear the one about ...
False rumors are nothing new with stocks. Just this past June, an anonymous poster on investing website SeekingAlpha wrote an article that spooked investors in Microvision (Nasdaq: MVIS  ) , causing its stock to drop 20% before the info was found to be false. And it doesn't have to be a negative rumor to ultimately cause harm to investors. Plenty of politicians and regulators have been publicly saying there's nothing wrong with Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM  ) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE  ) , only to have the rug pulled out from under them this weekend.

The burned hand learns best
The lesson here is that you should know what it is you're investing in before you put your money on the line. While a good number of investors are betting on the technology that Apple offers to keep it ahead of the game, that scenario contains an implicit reliance on Steve Jobs remaining at the helm for years to come. His creative genius is part and parcel of the Apple mystique.

That's similar to the situation at Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A  ) , where the health of Warren Buffett has to remain uppermost in investors' minds. While there is at last a succession plan in place for Berkshire, the unique abilities Buffett brings to the table will undoubtedly cause Berkshire shares to fall precipitously -- initially, anyway -- when he dies.

Just the facts, ma'am
That doesn't mean you shouldn't invest in Berkshire Hathaway, Apple, or any other particular company. Rather, it means that understanding the risks you face beforehand will lessen the chance that you act irrationally when a particular event occurs -- or even a rumor is spread that it has.

Indeed, knowing the risks and planning for them allows you the opportunity to capitalize on them should they eventually play out. You can pick up shares quite cheaply by being ready for the worst and acting when it comes.

Following these simple, common-sense rules ought to be enough to keep you from reacting -- and overreacting -- to innuendo and suggestion. That way, you'll ensure that when you do invest in a company, you won't see your money wiped out by some rumor.

You can trust the veracity of these related Foolish articles:

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Berkshire Hathaway is a Motley Fool Inside Value pick. Google is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation. Berkshire Hathaway and Apple are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks. The Fool owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey does not have a financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings here. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2008, at 11:40 AM, richgor wrote:

    The remaining mystery is, what caused the traffic on Saturday night/Sunday morning that elevated this 6-year-old story to the most-viewed list on the Sun-Sentinel Web site.

    I think I have the answer: The time frame when this occurred would be the lowest-traffic period of the week, so even a small amount of usage (one click?) could lift the story to the fifth-most viewed position among business news articles on the Sun-Sentinel's site.

    I reconstruct the timeline here, with some thoughts about what the real lessons of this story are:

    http://www.readership.org/blog/2008/09/how-old-news-moved-ma...

    Rich Gordon

    Associate professor

    Northwestern University

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2008, at 6:05 AM, TMFCop wrote:

    Rich,

    Thanks for the link. It was an excellent article you wrote. Blindly reacting to news is not investing, though I'm not sure regulating it is the answer.

    Despite the 15 minutes of panic it caused things have essentially corrected themselves without the heavy hand of government involved.

    Your article, though, brings up some great insights into how the UAL story unfolded.

    Rich

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2/14/2012 4:00 PM
GOOG $609.76 Down -2.44 -0.40%
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