Your Portfolio's Worst Enemy

11 Recommendations

Mike Tyson once reportedly uttered these sage words of wisdom (and no, I'm not being sarcastic): "Everyone has a plan -- until they get punched in the face." Taken literally or metaphorically, truer words were never spoken.

These days, lots of folks are feeling punched in the face by the stock market. I'm guessing they're also feeling like they could use a new plan.

After all, the iShares Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) exchange-traded fund -- home to such large-cap racecars as Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and Monsanto (NYSE: MON) -- has declined by more than 25% on a year-to-date basis. Even the comparatively buttoned-down Dow-tracking Diamonds (NYSE: DIA) -- an ETF whose portfolio is home to the upper-crust likes of Chevron (NYSE: CVX), 3M (NYSE: MMM), and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- has fallen by nearly 21%.

New and improved?
Still, before tacking, and perhaps even flailing, in some new direction, it's well worth asking: What, if anything, is wrong with your current plan?

After all, you did your homework, right? You focused on your holdings' free cash flow history, as well as their forward-looking prospects. You dialed out macroeconomic noise -- even at its current deafening, jet-engine roar volume -- and zeroed in on operational prowess. You understood that, though it may take a while to catch up, a firm's stock price will eventually reflect its ability crank out and grow net income (aka profit). On that front, paying close attention to key profitability measurements, including return on assets and return on equity, no doubt came in plenty handy.

Again, I'm just guessing again here, but I'll bet you followed up that fundamental spadework with a fair amount of heavy valuation lifting. It's often the toughest code to crack, but when you compare a firm's price multiples (including price-to-earnings, price-to-book value, and price-to-sales ratios) with those of the broader market and industry peers, you can go a long way toward buying high-quality stocks on the cheap.

Sound like a plan?
If that sounds like a reasonable description of the way you assembled your portfolio, good, no, excellent for you. Even if you have been dinged up amid the mayhem -- and who among us hasn't? -- you have ample reason to stay right where you are.

Your losses, after all, are paper losses, unrealized declines that will only impact your purchasing power when you pull the trigger. Or, to circle back around to Mike Tyson's insight, when you make like your own worst enemy and punch yourself in the face, Fight Club-style.

My advice? Just don't do it. Unless you believe the economic end is nigh (I don't), patience really is a virtue. Since 1926 -- a period that covers even the years of the Great Depression -- the stock market has delivered an annualized gain of more than 10%.

In other words, sit tight on thoughtful and well-researched investments whose fundamental characteristics haven't changed.

Old and lousy?
If, on the other hand, as you look at your portfolio now, you're seeing a grab-bag of ideas that were perhaps not as, ahem, thoroughly vetted as they ought to have been, we have some suggestions. Eight of 'em, in fact.

That's the number of investments we've made at Ready-Made Millionaire, the Fool's real-money investment service whose portfolio features a power trio of world-class mutual funds, a high-octane ETF, and four cherry-picked individual stocks. Make no mistake -- our lineup has been rocked by the downturn, too. It is, after all, an all-equity lineup. But because the process we used to assemble the portfolio matches the criteria outlined above, investments that were bargains to begin have become even better values now.

That's good news for prospective members, particularly since our game plan -- to beat the market over the next three to five years and beyond -- remains intact. RMM will reopen to new members in just a couple of weeks. If you'd like to snag a free copy of our 11-Minute Millionaire special report and learn more about the service, just click here.

Shannon Zimmerman runs point on the Fool's Ready-Made Millionaire service and doesn't own any of the securities mentioned above. Johnson & Johnson is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. 3M is an Inside Value choice. The Fool has a strict disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • On October 06, 2008, at 6:48 PM, hsvhughes wrote: Report this Comment

    I am tired of hearing "investors sold tons of stock today". Investors do not buy and sell every other day like a herd of spooked cattle. TRADERS are the ones making the market crazy. The original intent of the stock market was NOT legalized gambling. It was to buy stock in a company or group of companies, thereby adding your capital to many others', and expecting a return on your investment. If this keeps up, my TRADER friends, you can look forward to increased SEC restrictions on STOCK TRADING. The investors are being hurt by the TRADERS.

  • On October 06, 2008, at 9:37 PM, StocksBuyorSell wrote: Report this Comment

    I agree with the above comment on trading. However, that is not the main reason why we are here. The main problem is about American Corporations sending American Jobs overseas. Then what happens is those americans get laid off and can no longer make their mortgage payments, which means foreclosures. Multiply that by thousands and you have the crisis we are in now. What CEOs need to realize is that getting that bonus by laying off your co-workers is not an option. You need to innovate. Laying off workers only hurts everyone— as it is those same people who purchase goods and pay mortgages. http://directory.stocksbuyorsell.com

  • On October 10, 2008, at 11:45 PM, wmechaneer wrote: Report this Comment

    Please stop blaming corporations for doing what they must to survive governmental regulations and interference in the American consumer market. The American worker expects a six figure result from a four figure effort, and will only pay Chinese prices for Japanese quality and innovation. (Which is why I shudder when they "vote their wallet" during elections.) How do you think the RE market ballooned at rates upwards of ten times inflation? THE PERSONAL GREED OF THE AMERICAN CONSUMER HAS DESTROYED AMERICAN CONSUMER PRODUCTS MANUFACTURING, AND IS NOW DESTROYING THE ENTIRE ECONOMY BY ITS PANICKED RESPONSE TO WHACKO TALKING HEADS SCREAMING ON TV. The retail consumers here REFUSE to pay an American wage for building widgets, so widgets are no longer the source of American jobs. The office worker is next.

  • On October 26, 2008, at 12:15 PM, XMFHamp wrote: Report this Comment

    <<a high-octane ETF>>

    Recommending a leveraged ETF as part of a long-term, buy-and-hold portfolio is terrible, terrible advice.

    As the following article states:

    "When gains and losses are multiplied, the results are asymmetrical and create situations that are difficult to recover from. [Leveraged] ETFs can suffer from flaws in the reinvestment strategy that make it a failure as a long-term investment. In fairness to ProShares, the leveraged funds are marketed primarily to short-term traders, but undoubtedly there are some longer-term investors that purchase the security without understanding its limitations."

    http://www.indexroll.com/leveragedetfs.htm

    The most charitable interpretation for why this Motley Fool advisor included a leveraged ETF in a long-term portfolio is that he didn't understand the product.

    The more sinister interpretation is that the Motley Fool advisor knowingly took a huge and irresponsible risk in a desperate gamble to beat the S&P 500. The Motley Fool has promised to waive the annual maintenance fee to "Ready Made Millionaire" if the portfolio does not beat the S&P 500. Consequently, Zimmerman was under tremendous financial pressure to beat his benchmark. He didn't have enough confidence in his fund and stock-picking abilities, so he took a flyer on a leveraged ETF. The risky gamble backfired, as risky gambles normally do.

    Whatever the correct interpretation of the advisor's intentions, investors should look elsewhere for guidance on a safe, long-term investment portfolio.

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