A 1-in-100 Investor

Just as the first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye as well on how investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. Since data shows that the best stocks to buy have gotten top ratings, might we also assume that when the best players rate the best stocks, there's a correlation?

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is ElViking, who sports a nearly perfect 99.95 member rating. A member since September 2006, ElViking currently has 88 active picks on CAPS out of more than 570 stock picks made. Achieving 87% accuracy, ElViking has also attracted 120 "groupies," CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Stock

CAPS Rating  (5 Max)

Call

Price*

Current Score

Middleby (Nasdaq: MIDD  )

*****

Outperform

$32.20

(1.88)

Cemex (NYSE: CX  )

*****

Outperform

$5.94

1.20

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  )

***

Outperform

$97.04

(14.66)

NVR (NYSE: NVR  )

*

Underperform

$548.35

0.02

Amedisys (Nasdaq: AMED  )

**

Underperform

$48.99

(9.95)

Sadia (NYSE: SDA  )

*****

Outperform

$9.65

(16.86)

Playboy (NYSE: PLA  )

*

Outperform

$3.96

(45.88)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. *Price when call was made. Current score is how many percentage points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.

Let's look at what other CAPS members are saying about some of these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Goldman Sachs
Not that anyone is suggesting Warren Buffett has lost his mojo, but the timing of his purchase of Goldman Sachs was perhaps not the best. The investment banker was trading at around $125 when the deal was done -- on very good terms for the Oracle -- and now it's just about $90 a stub. That's a quick 28% loss. Yet if Buffett were a trader and not an investor, that might be something to be worried about.

As CAPS member FeelTheFear points out, Goldman Sachs is now operating in an environment with less rivals than it once did: "This is a great short and long term opportunity, they have plenty of cash, a low PE and forward PE and a … business environment that suddenly has a lot less competition."

Cemex
A company that doesn't use any debt is not optimizing its capital position, while a company that uses too much can be on the road to disaster. Yet as we've seen all too frequently, even companies with what once seemed like an appropriate amount of leverage have found themselves in danger of violating their covenants as a result of economic conditions.

Mexican cement maker Cemex is one of those companies that previously had been positioned to capitalize on the world's infrastructure and housing boom, but it now teeters as credit markets have closed, the peso has fallen, and the Mexican economy -- a previously thriving construction industry -- is now feeling the global impact.

CAPS member awhill100 likes the company, because if Cemex is able to come through the credit crisis intact, demand for its products will once again soar.

Cemex is a global company selling cement products. Cement is an essential product for all markets. If Cemex can come out of this economic meltdown [unscathed], I think stockholders will reap the benefits of loyalty.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS every investor's opinion counts and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?

Cemex is both a Motley Fool Stock Advisor and Global Gains selection. Sadia and Middleby are Motley Fool Hidden Gems recommendations. The Fool owns shares of Cemex. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey does not have a financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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