You Missed the Best Day to Buy

Recs

6

There was once a woman who prayed every day for 20 years that she'd win the lottery. Every single day. Finally, in despair, she said, "God, I've been a true and faithful servant and have lived an exemplary life. Why won't you grant me this one thing?"

"Look," said God, "at least meet me halfway -- buy a lottery ticket."

Buy the ticket
Similarly, in order to take advantage of the greatest long-term wealth-building machine available to us individual investors, you have to be in the market. And if the current craziness is keeping you away because you fear a huge drop, you're ignoring the advice of some of history's top investors.

In the latest edition of his book Stocks for the Long Run, Jeremy Siegel charted returns for a hypothetical unlucky investor who happened to invest at the absolute top of six major 20th-century market peaks. After 30 years, this investor actually accumulated four times more wealth in stocks than he would have in bonds, and five times more than in T-bills. For a 20-year period, he doubled the bonds return.

There's more where that came from
Consider John Templeton, founder of Templeton Growth Fund and widely regarded as one of the best investors of his generation. His advice about getting into the market is simple: "The best time to invest is when you have money. This is because history suggests it is not timing which matters, it is time."

Our own David and Tom Gardner, who've beaten the market by a tremendous amount in Motley Fool Stock Advisor, also eschew timing the market. "The best time to invest was yesterday," says Tom. "The next best time is today." So even though the tongue-in-cheek title of this article implies you've missed your best chance, you can see that you really haven't. If you've got money you won't need for five years or more, just get in the game as soon as you can.

Still need convincing? I looked back a decade, specifically searching for companies that had been up 25% or more in one year. Surely, many investors back then were worried that stocks were too rich and ready for a great fall.

Well, a gnarly bear market did start up a couple of years later, and yes, these stocks fell. And yet despite their large prior one-year gains, and despite two big bear markets (including the current one), their returns have been solid for those who held for the long term -- especially when compared to a market that has lost 28% in the meantime.

Company

11/25/97-
11/25/98

11/25/98-
11/25/08

Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX)

34%

46%

Electronic Arts (NYSE: EA)

29%

87%

Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN)

51%

194%

Exelon (NYSE: EXC)

70%

157%

Costco (NYSE: COST)

44%

60%

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)

29%

43%

Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM)

41%

119%

S&P 500

25%

(28%)

There are no guarantees
We're in another scary period, but history shows that if you can find superior businesses with good management, hold for the long haul, and add new money regularly, you will rarely be disappointed.

That's the advice David and Tom give to their Stock Advisor members, and they help them with not only new recommendations each month but also the top five stocks to buy right now. They've been at it a long time, through bear and bull, and their average recommendation is beating the market by 23 percentage points.

Right now a special no-obligation free trial will give you access to all these stocks and more -- including 10 best buys for the current market. Here's more information.

This article was first published Jan. 25, 2008. It has been updated.

Rex Moore is an analyst for Stock Advisor and thinks now is a good time to buy stocks. Of the companies mentioned, he owns shares of Johnson & Johnson. Johnson & Johnson is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. Starbucks is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Starbucks and Costco are Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendations. The Fool owns shares of Starbucks. This information is brought to you by the Fool's disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 25, 2008, at 3:09 PM, boredgenius wrote:

    this assumption is wrong.

    timing does matters and the mantra "stocks always go up" should be contradicted with "stocks always go down".

    If you brought at the height of dot com era, or even a little bit earlier i.e 1998/99, you would've seen your investment lose and wither away by year 2008.

    What about the folks who are retiring now whose lifelong investments are now a pile of trash?

    To quote the article:

    "There are no guarantees

    We're in another scary period, but history shows that if you can find superior businesses with good management, hold for the long haul, and add new money regularly, you will rarely be disappointed."

    It should've stopped at "There are no guarantees".

    AIG? FNM? FRE? WAMU? C? These are blue chip stocks and majority of funds have allocated %s in them.

    I really feel very sorry for all the retiries: all the time in the world will not bring back all the lost fortune they've accumulated through-out their working life.

  • Report this Comment On November 26, 2008, at 1:24 PM, Vjklander wrote:

    Well genius, the stocks you list are all financials. They were sitting on the bubble just waiting to go boom. I got out of all my financials in Q306. I split those funds between commodities, household products and energy. I dumped commodities and energy between Q108 and Q208. My values still give me about $5-8k a month in divvies, which gets me by and I'm sitting on a pile of cash. I've recently been buying GE, CSE, BAC and NUE, VMC, FWLT.

    I think you will find that any prudent retiree should have had their funds in a well diversified value-laden portfolio and should be getting quite decent returns. Unless they listened to the experts of course.

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