A 1-in-100 Investor

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The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new president. Motley Fool CAPS also keeps an eye on how investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best members -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days. Because data shows that the best stocks to buy and sell have gotten top ratings, might we also assume that when the best players rate the best stocks, there is a correlation?

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is portefeuille, with a near-perfect 99.83 rating. After becoming a member just last month, portefeuille has 170 active picks out of nearly 350 stock picks made on CAPS. And with 70% accuracy, portefeuille has already attracted 19 "groupies" -- CAPS members who've listed this investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Stock	CAPS Rating (5 max)	Call	Price^	Current Score
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A)	*****	Outperform	$94,900.00	(8.50)
Elan	***	Outperform	$5.92	(2.30)
Huntsman (NYSE: HUN)	***	Outperform	$3.34	(0.05)
Micron	**	Outperform	$2.37	8.74
National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV)	*****	Outperform	$24.04	(0.53)
Novavax (Nasdaq: NVAX)	**	Outperform	$1.84	(7.89)
SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK)	****	Outperform	$8.88	3.17
Toyota (NYSE: TM)	***	Outperform	$60.42	4.83
Vale (NYSE: RIO)	*****	Outperform	$11.57	(0.04)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
^ Price when call was made. Current score is how many points by which a member is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about some of these stocks and whether they agree with this player's assessment.

Berkshire Hathaway
Shares in Berkshire Hathaway haven't yet tested the November lows that made them one of the best bargains that month -- they quickly rebounded to trade at more than $100,000 a share. But now that they've dropped below the six-digit mark once again, does today's price make them December's best value?

CAPS member zmoose22 is willing to wager that Warren Buffett still has his investing moxie, even though it may be "boring." But who said making money isn't exciting?

3 words: "Warren flippin' Buffet". Investing in the market is never a sure thing...But if you're investing for the long-term, Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. is about as close to a guarantee to make a nice return on your money that you're going to find. Is this a boring pick?...sure, if you call making money boring. Call me crazy, but I'll take $$$ over boring any day of the week.

SanDisk
Ah, the clarity of hindsight. With SanDisk shares trading hands these days at below $10 each, investors are probably wishing the company's board had accepted the $26-a-stub offer from Samsung back in September. While SanDisk, which makes memory cards, wasn't opposed to a combination with the chip manufacturer, it felt it could get an even better price. No doubt that's because of its commanding 15% share of the NAND chip market (according to analysts' estimate).

Earlier this month, CAPS All-Star jmf1957 figured that the flattening of SanDisk's shares to $5 apiece made for an attractive entry point.

I got out of my caps position in Sept when they turned down Samsungs offer of $22/sh. After dropping 75% from that point, I figured the $5/range offered considerable upside, since Samsung knows more about the company than I do.

Yet with SanDisk reporting a $250 million operating loss last quarter, cutting jobs, and selling off a 30% stake in its joint venture with Toshiba, Samsung is probably quite pleased that it was rebuffed. Even if it considered making another offer, it probably would be at a far lower price. This might be something investors won't forget.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in CAPS have made their mark, so it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts, and because it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot? 

On Jan. 12, 2009, Fool co-founder David Gardner, Jeff Fischer, and their Motley Fool Pro team will accept new subscribers to their real-money portfolio service. Motley Fool Pro is investing $1 million of the Fool's own money in long and short positions in a range of securities, including common stocks, put and call options, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). They also incorporate proprietary CAPS "community intelligence" data into their research. To learn more about Motley Fool Pro and to receive a private invitation to join, simply enter your email address in the box below.