5 Stocks in a Tailspin

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Individual stocks can surge 10%, 25%, or even higher in a short period of time. And they can fall just as far, just as quickly. For example, American Depository Receipts of Indian company Satyam dropped more than 84% on Monday, their first day back on the market after the New York Stock Exchange froze trading of the shares last week because of the company's accounting fraud scandal.

Big drops in share price can sometimes signal material defects or new risks. But at other times, they're simply pullbacks after a long run-up. Fortunately, we have Motley Fool CAPS, a great resource to help us understand the larger picture behind big price drops.

Is the sky falling?
CAPS contains more than just the crowd's opinions. Its best-performing members' votes count more in shaping each company's rating than do the picks of their poorer-performing peers. That way, investors can intelligently use the collective wisdom of more than 125,000 CAPS members to make better decisions.

We'll use CAPS' handy stock screening tool to quickly zero in on companies that have been slashed by at least 20% in the last four weeks, and which have a market cap greater than $100 million and a beta of less than 3. If you want to run this screen for yourself, please do -- just keep in mind that the results will update with the market.

Here's a sample of stocks our CAPS screen returned:

Company

CAPS Rating
(out of 5)

4-Week
Price Change

Raser Technologies (NYSE: RZ)

*

(26.1%)

Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG)

*

(20%)

MetLife (NYSE: MET)

**

(22.3%)

CIT Group (NYSE: CIT)

**

(21.4%)

SINA (Nasdaq: SINA)

****

(30.4%)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. Price return from Dec. 19 through Jan. 12.

Raser Technologies
Recent listing on the New York Stock Exchange hasn't helped boost shares of geothermal power developer Raser Technologies yet. The company's shares have fallen nearly 80% from where they stood a year ago. Lack of positive cash flow and plenty of long-term debt keeps many investors weary. While some investors believe patience will be rewarded as Raser transitions to a commercial operation, only 45% of the 655 CAPS members rating Raser Technologies expect it to outperform the market.

Simon Property Group
Highly leveraged REIT mall operators like Simon and General Growth Properties (NYSE: GGP) have been hit hard by the economic downturn as slowing consumer spending heralds tough times for retailers. And even though the government is making bold moves to jumpstart the economy, many investors expect real estate values to remain depressed for quite awhile. Many are betting real estate will go lower, since only 48% of the 438 CAPS members rating Simon Property Group see it beating the market.

MetLife
The U.S. life-insurance sector has faced increased liabilities and lower asset values, making it difficult to maintain solid capital positions and avoid credit downgrades that could lead to higher costs or lost business. Fortunately, MetLife was able to raise $2.3 billion in a stock offering in October, joining Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) in bringing in additional needed capital. Many CAPS members think MetLife will hold up better than others because of its size and diversification; 90% of the 621 members rating the company are bullish.

CIT Group
Following a third-quarter loss of $317.3 million, commercial finance firm CIT Group reported last week that it expects to post another loss in the fourth quarter. The company became a bank holding company to qualify for $2.3 billion in government bailout money, giving some investors new optimism that CIT can capitalize on its sweet spot of lending to midsized and small businesses as the Fed works to unfreeze the market for small-business loans. CAPS members rating CIT Group are split on the company's prospects, with 69% believing shares will outperform the market.

SINA
Investors recently knocked down shares of both SINA and Focus Media following the announcement that SINA would buy Focus Media's digital outdoor advertising businesses. Some see risk in integration challenges, a change in corporate strategy, and increasing competition in China's advertising market. In addition, SINA was recently caught up in China's Internet pornography crackdown, accused by the government of not acting quickly enough to eliminate immoral content from sites. Still, 95% of the 735 CAPS members rating SINA see long-term growth and expect it to outperform the market.

Ultimately, whether or not you believe a fall in any stock is warranted, your own research is more important than collective opinions. CAPS can help you quickly focus your due diligence, and even point out potential pitfalls you may not have seen.

Add your take on these or any of the nearly 5,400 stocks that 125,000-plus members have covered in Motley Fool CAPS.

Beginning Jan. 12, 2009, Fool co-founder David Gardner, Jeff Fischer, and their Motley Fool Pro team will accept new subscribers to their real-money portfolio service. Motley Fool Pro is investing $1 million of the Fool's own money in long and short positions in a range of securities, including common stocks, put and call options, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). They also incorporate proprietary CAPS "community intelligence" data into their research. To learn more about Motley Fool Pro, and to receive a private invitation to join, simply enter your email address in the box below.

Follow along with the Global Gains team as they travel to key business centers in China to uncover the very best investing opportunities! Sign up here to receive their FREE dispatches from the road.

Fool contributor Dave Mock habitually looks for silver linings in even the darkest of clouds. He owns no shares of companies mentioned here. Focus Media Holding is both a Motley Fool Global Gains and Rule Breakers pick. SINA is a Stock Advisor pick, while Satyam is a former pick. The Fool's disclosure policy is made of sugar and spice and everything nice.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 14, 2009, at 2:42 PM, rkornfeld wrote:

    I would like to see Motely Fool disclose the following:

    1. How much is it paid to publish negative articles about rz.

    2. How many articles has it published on RZ in the last 365 days?

    3. Can it point out any positive article it or its commentators have ever written about it?

    4. Given the total number of "negative" articles it has written about RZ, which I am guessing exceeds 10 in the last calender year, and could be over 20, would you agree that there is no other publication in the USA which has published anywhere near the number of articles as Motley Fool?

    To me, this pattern of publishing numerous negative articles about the company shows a definite agenda.

    With all of the thousands and thousands of stocks which are down, why are you focusing, time after time, on lowly RZ unless there is a reason? Why are your picking on this one when there are thousands of other small cap stocks which fit the same profile?

    The issue is whether this agenda is bought and paid for, or is their a relationship with short sellers and short promoters which Motley Fool has not disclosed?

    It smells...Who is MF in bed with?

    Please disclose it.

    Clearly MF is biased and is not keeping an open mind.

    Please disclose to the public and your readers the number of publications MF has had in 08 and 09 on RZ.

    Thank you,

  • Report this Comment On January 14, 2009, at 5:42 PM, ALL4Disclosure wrote:

    Not too sure what the firewood story is in reference to... but I do have an opinion of MF and this article. Raser is being manipulated and MF seems to be a player in the scheme. Below is a list of articles published on Raser in the last year:

    2-5-08- Negative Article

    2-15-08 Negative Article

    2-27-08 Negative Article

    3-27-08 No opinion given by MF

    6-25-08 Negative Article

    6-27-08 No opinion given by MF

    7-1-08 Negative Article

    8-22-08 Negative Article

    9-9-08 No opinion given by MF

    9-11-08 Negative Article

    Now things start to get really interesting as MF seems to publish a negative article in response to anything remotely positive being published elsewhere:

    10-7-08 Raser announces "Up to Speed" video update

    10-8-08 MF publishes negative article

    10-20-08 Raser announces Tax Equity Payment

    10-20-08 MF publishes negative article and says "We may have a position" but does not specify beyond that

    12-24-08 AP publishes "Utah Startup hits Geothermal Jackpot"

    12-26-08 MF publishes negative article

    12-30-08 Raser announces completion of initial testing

    12-30-08 MF publishes negative article

    1-14-09 Raser announces commissioning activities

    1-14-09 MF publishes this article.

    Now I don't really care if those at MF have a short position but you should at least have the intestinal fortitude to disclose it. MF's MO is that writers should be investors as well. I agree with that. While the individual writers at MF may not have a position, it sure looks like someone at MF does and is using these "experts" as mouthpieces. Please disclose the collective positions of all who get a paycheck from MF.

    Another thing: Just for fun, why don't we track your big $1 million portfolio performance gimmek compared to RZ alone. Starting January 12th, just like your portfolio. We can even use the high range of the PPS on Jan 12th of 3.62. So we have 276,243 shares @ $3.62 per share.

    Lets have some disclosure, please.

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