Stock Smackdown: Cramer vs. CAPS

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There's no denying that Mad Money host Jim Cramer is entertaining, popular, and passionate. On many occasions, he's even right. So he's smart, funny, and the closest thing to a stock market rock star -- but is he smarter than you?

Cramming for Cramer
The Fool's free investing community, Motley Fool CAPS, aggregates the opinions of more than 125,000 members to assign ratings for each stock's likelihood of outperforming or underperforming the market.

Below, we look at some top stocks that Cramer picked and panned during last week's "lightning rounds," and compare them to how the CAPS community sees their future.

Stock

Lightning Round
Show Date

Cramer's Rating 

CAPS Rating
(Out of 5)

Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL)

Wednesday

Bearish

*

United States Steel (NYSE: X)

Wednesday

Bullish

****

Nucor (NYSE: NUE)

Wednesday

Bearish

*****

Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY)

Thursday

Bearish

**

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners

Thursday

Bullish

****

Becton, Dickinson

Thursday

Bullish

*****

Baxter International

Thursday

Bullish

****

Merck (NYSE: MRK)

Friday

Bullish

****

Barclays (NYSE: BCS)

Friday

Bearish

***

Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX)

Friday

Bearish

**

Cramer says
A company in dire straits can't be criticized for trying to shake things up to break out of a slump. Starbucks is playing its hand right now, but Cramer thinks it's too early to know whether Howard Schultz's return to the company is the game-changer the coffee purveyor needs. Even some of his more dramatic measures -- such as introducing instant coffee -- are too new to make a call on. Says Cramer:

OK, it does look like it is bottoming ... they just started instant coffee. ... But ... not enough time has [passed] since Howard Schultz came in. ... McDonalds took 18 months before you saw any visible sign of a turn. ... Let's wait before we pull the trigger on Starbucks.

CAPS says
Implementing a new game plan is one way to break the mold, but investors are worried that their beloved Starbucks is also running the risk of ruining its reputation. Instant coffee sounds like a bad idea to some people, and certainly, value meals and a host of other silly ideas don't make the company look edgy, but rather on the edge of the precipice. What's next? Offering Howard Schultz action figures?

Although Dunkin' Donuts and McDonald's have become more direct competitors in the current economic climate, CAPS member lpsales doesn't think Starbucks' decision to cheap out on its brand will resonate with its customer base: "They pride themselves on gourmet beverages and are competing directly now with McDonald's. Does not compute."

CAPS member supernaut2009 agrees that these may be branding miscues but has difficulty seeing Starbucks as no longer being relevant.

Instant coffee? Value meals? I agree with others that say Sbux needs to get back to basics: providing an outstanding cup of coffee along with a pleasant, sociable atmosphere. Although I do not see Sbux as the growth stock it once was, I just cannot see this company dissolving into irrelevancy. Is the American addiction to gourmet coffees over? I don't think so. Perhaps just on hiatus thanks to the recession. I understand the competition from MCD and other low-cost operators is a threat, but Sbux initiated America into the world of lattes and cappuccinos, and the environment of Sbux cannot be recreated in these places. I would not bet on this stock anywhere near short term, but once we pull out of this funk and have some extra change (well ... $3.50) in our pockets, I think this stock will trend upwards once again.

Your say
CAPS members may stand with Jim Cramer or on opposite sides of the field, but the investor-intelligence community is more than what some All-Stars think, even if they are TV personalities. But what do you think? Is Cramer right, or is he off his rocker? Why not head off right now to CAPS and sound off with your thoughts on whether Starbucks is genuinely rebranding itself or busting the brand that it has.

Motley Fool CAPS is a great place to start your own research on these stocks. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page. Best of all, it's free!

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Annaly Capital Management is a Motley Fool Income Investor pick. Starbucks is both a Motley Fool Inside Value and  Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection. The Fool owns shares of Starbucks. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey has no financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On February 24, 2009, at 2:06 PM, nestegg4324 wrote:

    I agree starbucks has a great marketing team, but in order for them to compete in a down market such as this one they are going to have to lower there prices, but at the same time they do need to keep their Gourmet Coffee Brand in mind. In order to do this I think they need to be creative for instance what are the two biggest trends right now most companies are doing? The first is going green the other is lowering there prices. Why not combine the two, For example any customer who brings in there own coffee cup gets a 1.00 off of their coffee purchase. This would cut waste and create traffic by providing a discount to people who are turned off now because of the prices. This would also mean that starbucks could use less cups and save money that way and hoepfully sell more coffee at the same time. Come on lets be honest starbucks is responsible for growing their own coffee beans and Im sure there cost of growing them is very minimal. Also they would seem less desperate if they went this route more Green then anything! There are several ways around this they just have to use that amazing marketing team they have to make it happen other wise they risk lowering the status of how the brand is portrayed, that may not be able to be fixed later down the line.

  • Report this Comment On February 24, 2009, at 4:20 PM, muleman35 wrote:

    Starbucks has become recognized as a national brand. However, the days of high school and college students drinking sweetened, high caffeine drinks are over for now. They need to concentrate on what made them famous; producing a good cup of coffee in a pleasant atmosphere.

    The bear-bull comparision of Cramer on the lighting round is misleading. He has always been a bull on Nucor. This time he stated the stock was overpriced from when he originally recommended it a few months earlier.

  • Report this Comment On March 24, 2009, at 6:17 AM, RCS2rocks wrote:

    Starbux has Revenue Growth (YOY) of 10.30%, Gross Margin (TTM) 8.60%and Pre tax Margin (TTM) 2.30%. I don't believe cutting prices will do anything but lock the doors. I've been in the restaurant business for eighteen years. Discounting drives topline sales. It just doesn't flowthrough.

  • Report this Comment On March 24, 2009, at 6:20 AM, RCS2rocks wrote:

    When you watch cramer and he's typing and looking at his computer. I believe he's looking at CAPS!

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Related Tickers

11/9/2009 4:00 PM
X $38.71 Up +1.33 +3.56%
United States Stee… CAPS Rating: ****
SBUX $21.10 Down -0.02 -0.09%
Starbucks Corp CAPS Rating: **
BCS $23.17 Up +0.65 +2.89%
Barclays PLC (ADR) CAPS Rating: ***
MRK $33.43 Up +0.84 +2.58%
Merck & Co., Inc. CAPS Rating: ****
NLY $17.63 Up +0.57 +3.34%
Annaly Capital Man… CAPS Rating: **
DAL $7.89 Up +0.10 +1.28%
Delta Air Lines, I… CAPS Rating: *
NUE $41.38 Up +2.04 +5.19%
Nucor Corp CAPS Rating: ****

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