A 1-in-100 Investor

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The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how well investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. In this column, we're looking at our best players who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will be best next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is bbmaven, who sports an impressive 99.86 member rating. A member since September 2006, bbmaven currently has 194 active picks on CAPS out of more than 520 stock picks made. Achieving 72% accuracy, bbmaven has also attracted 93 "groupies" so far, CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Stock	CAPS Rating (5 max)	Call	Price^	Current Score
Apollo Group (Nasdaq: APOL)	*	Underperform	$65.54	4.12
Global Industries	*****	Outperform	$3.11	(5.02)
Innophos Holdings	***	Outperform	$11.09	(18.03)
Intuitive Surgical (Nasdaq: ISRG)	****	Outperform	$97.54	6.89
Montpelier Re (NYSE: MRH)	*****	Outperform	$13.65	(9.91)
Otter Tail (Nasdaq: OTTR)	*****	Outperform	$17.53	10.61
TransDigm Group (NYSE: TDG)	*****	Outperform	$29.76	1.45
Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY)	****	Outperform	$5.12	(7.47)
VSE (Nasdaq: VSEC)	****	Outperform	$23.21	(7.23)
Zhongpin	*****	Outperform	$9.44	(9.77)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
^ Price when call was made. Current score is how many percentage points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index by from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about Apollo Group, and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
It's being trumpeted so often now that it's almost becoming a cliche: "In a recession, online schools of post-secondary education will prosper." Out of work and with time on their hands, people are brushing up on skills to make their resumes more marketable, and earning a degree might be time well spent.

Over the past year, University of Phoenix parent Apollo Group saw its shares more than double, as net income rose by 50% on revenue that increased by just 14%. While the online educator's shares have given back a little more than a fifth of those gains in recent weeks, Apollo is supported by what appear to be favorable trends. Unemployment hit 8.1% in February and topped 10% in four states. While unemployment was climbing, degree enrollments at Apollo were up 18.4% in its fiscal first quarter, ending Nov. 30, leading to a year-over-year 40% increase in operating income.

But there are possible stains on its permanent record. While President Obama's massive spending plan includes approximately $17 billion in new needs-based Pell Grants, such financing accounted for only 9% of Apollo's 2008 revenues. Instead, its students typically rely upon Stafford Loans -- low-interest, federally guaranteed loans made by private lenders. More than two-thirds of Apollo's revenue came from this source last year, but additional financing for Stafford loans was removed from the bill that Obama eventually signed. Students may find it more difficult to afford Apollo's programs, just when they need them most.

For some investors, it comes down to weighing risk versus reward. CAPS All-Star Option1307 highlighted several bearish indicators to possibly tip the scales against the educator:

1) Massive insider selling
2) Huge lawsuits involving the majority of their revenue stream.
3) Way way overvalued.

Anyway you look at it, they need to come back down to reality. This lawsuit business could get really ugly, and even if it doesn't, it is still not good PR for this company.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made, all from a stock's CAPS page. It's free.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS every investor's opinion counts. Since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?