A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how well investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. In this column, we're looking at our best players who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will be best next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is hdgf1, who sports an impressive 99.85 member rating. A member just since February 2009, hdgf1 currently has 191 active picks on CAPS out of 193 stock picks made. Achieving 73% accuracy, hdgf1 has already attracted four "groupies," CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Stock

CAPS Rating (5 max)

Call

Price^

Current Score^^

Activision Blizzard (Nasdaq: ATVI  )

*****

Outperform

$10.00

(4.95)

Cepheid

***

Outperform

$6.41

3.00

Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN  )

**

Outperform

$3.98

47.66

Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX  )

****

Outperform

$12.75

(7.17)

Harmonic (Nasdaq: HLIT  )

****

Outperform

$5.71

14.07

Nuance Communications (Nasdaq: NUAN  )

****

Outperform

$9.47

22.84

Pan American Silver

****

Outperform

$14.36

0.33

Silver Standard Resources

***

Outperform

$13.27

10.54

Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW  )

****

Outperform

$6.48

9.34

STEC (Nasdaq: STEC  )

****

Outperform

$7.63

3.67

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
^ Price when call was made.
^^ Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about some of these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
Many investors in precious metals retain hope that the government will one day return to a gold standard as a means of forcing stability not only in the yellow metal but its silver cousin, too. The mother of all currency crises makes that seem not such a fantasy anymore, because if China stops helping Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner by diversifying away from the dollar, there may come a worldwide currency collapse that would leave countries looking for a common denominator.

The price ratio of silver-to-gold today is around 70 ounces of silver for every one ounce of gold. It hasn't always been that way. The two precious metals have a historical ratio of around 20-to-1. A return to the gold standard would help catapult the price of silver higher to narrow that gap, allowing silver to trade at closer to $50 an ounce. Gold bugs may just be silver's best friend.

While there might be several ways to capitalize on such a scenario, Silver Wheaton could be one of the best. It buys a percentage of the silver that's pulled from other companies' mines, and it recently announced that its attributable proven and probable silver reserves increased by more than 24% last year, to a record 429.7 million ounces. Moreover, attributable measured and indicated silver resources increased by 33%, to 213.5 million ounces.

It might not even take a return to the gold standard -- always a dicey proposition -- for Silver Wheaton to prosper. Even if the disconnect between the two doesn't hit its historical ratios, a move toward normalcy would have a powerful impact on the company's results. With mounting inflationary pressure pushing gold to rise higher, silver (and Silver Wheaton) are sure to follow.

Investors like CAPS member dudemonkey would seem to agree. This investor thinks the scales have tipped too far in gold's favor and that market forces may be enough to force the issue:

My estimation is that the gold:silver ratio is leaning too far toward gold and I'm expecting silver to increase in value more quickly than gold in the future. It also seems that there is an unreasonable short interest in silver that can't possibly be covered, so as the supply in the metals exchanges goes down, those shorts are going to be forced to cover.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have made their mark; it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?

Activision Blizzard is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey does not have a financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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