5 Stocks With a Little Magic

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6

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When fund manager Joel Greenblatt published his investing guide, The Little Book That Beats the Market, in 2005, it marked a unique point for investors. They now had in their hands insights into investing strategies that a value investing master himself used and that are also easily replicated. As proof, Greenblatt has achieved phenomenal results over the past two decades, besting even the performance of Warren Buffett.

The strategy is deceptively simple: Buy undervalued, high-performing companies and hold for a year. Wash, rinse, and repeat. But what if we can augment Greenblatt's methodology? Below we've used a "magic formula"-like screen that approximates the pre-tax earnings and return on capital criteria he lays out, but adds to it the ratings from our Motley Fool CAPS investor intelligence database. Combining those rankings with the criteria that Greenblatt suggests should give us winning investments that may just produce some outsized returns.

Here are a few companies that showed up when I ran this screen recently.

Stock

Pre-Tax Earnings Yield %

Pre-Tax Return on Capital %

Recent Stock Price

CAPS Rating

Endo Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ENDP)

22%

>100%

$16.51

*****

Graham (NYSE: GHM)

28%

>100%

$13.17

*****

EMCOR (NYSE: EME)

25%

>100%

$23.35

****

Formula Systems (Nasdaq: FORTY)

88%

>100%

$7.30

**

Pre-Paid Legal Services (NYSE: PPD)

23%

>100%

$42.96

*

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; Motley Fool CAPS. Pre-tax earnings yield is the inverse of EV/EBIT. Pre-tax ROC is EBIT divided by tangible capital employed.

Although Greenblatt's strategy is a mechanical one, we don't think you should simply rely on this as a list of companies to buy. Due diligence on this narrowly focused list of companies is always a smart requirement. So, let's see what CAPS members have to say about one of these magical companies.

A little bit of pixie dust
Should you end up in a legal bind, having a go-to lawyer provides peace of mind to many people. Pre-Paid Legal Services offers basic access to legal advice through its network of independent law firms at a cost of $15 to $25 a month, a rather affordable price considering that just an hour's worth of a lawyer's time can easily run $100 or more.

What turns many investors off to Pre-Paid Legal, however, is that it markets its services through multilevel marketing (MLM) techniques. Because some of these marketing plans have been little more than scams, legitimate businesses that use multilevel marketing, such as Mannatech (Nasdaq: MTEX) and USANA Health Sciences (Nasdaq: USNA), have been tarred with the same broad brush and come under closer scrutiny.

Whatever the merits (or demerits) of MLM, Pre-Paid Legal is suffering from an erosion of its membership base. In its latest quarter, new legal memberships decreased 10.8%, while new identity theft memberships plummeted 40.5% from the year-ago period. At the end of the quarter, it had over 1.4 million active members, but it actually lost about 160,000 members compared to the year-ago quarter. In the most recent quarter, it sold 117,000 new memberships -- not enough to fully offset the attrition, leaving it net 43,000 fewer members in total.

Pre-Paid Legal faced a similar trend last year, losing more than half a million members over the course of the year, but replacing them with not quite as many, ending down a net 23,000. That's quite a level of customer churn, bringing to mind some of the worst descriptions of MLM as a Ponzi scheme that requires ever-greater numbers of people to be brought into the circle.

While that has been a criticism of MLM in general, and of Pre-Paid Legal in particular, by the private Fraud Discovery Institute, a number of investors don't see it that way. CAPS member bcnu6, who self-identifies as a former attorney in Pre-Paid's lawyer network, says the company is no Ponzi scheme. This CAPS member says that those who contend that Pre-Paid is on its deathbed don't realize that many of its members would be loath to give up their coverage:

While there may be grounds for objection to that part of the business model which uses "Independent Associates" to hawk its services, this is in no way a ponzi scheme as many fools assert in their pitches. And while there may be grounds to question whether the customers truly obtain good value for their monthly payments, the typical customer would be loathe to give up their coverage. The typical customer may be one who prone to be intimidated by lawyers and who feels vulnerable in the face of persons and institutions perceived as more powerful. Pre-Paid Legal tends to reassure these people that they can obtain assistance in the face of trouble, and eases the task of finding an attorney to help.

Since hitting its 52-week low back in April, Pre-Paid's stock has rebounded by more than 50%, giving investors something with which to thumb their noses at naysayers.

Beat the Street
While he's provided an interesting magic formula, you'll need to read more than a few pages of Greenblatt's book to make your buy or sell decisions. So, start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS, where your opinion can still save the day. While there, you can read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

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Fool contributor Rich Duprey does not have a financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On June 03, 2009, at 11:53 AM, emeraud wrote:

    You call Mannatech a LEGITIMATE MLM???? Have you ever done research on this company??? Have you ever had any dealings with any "associate" connected with this MLM? This is possibly one of the largest scam groups in the world! Be very, very cautious.

  • Report this Comment On June 05, 2009, at 9:01 AM, mentorkyle wrote:

    Interesting info on Pre-Paid Legal And MLM as a whole. Companies love that model as its a very cost effective way to bring a product or service to market and Distributors that become skilled can be rewarded well. Depending on the companies individual business model - It can be viable long term, although the three companies referenced above tend to skew things in favor of company profits vs distributor income. Which bodes well for an investor, at least in the short term but makes it tough to keep distributors. If the average person can't make money or the products are only sold to distributors- you will lose your sales force and that's trouble.

    Emeraud Wrote "You call Mannatech a LEGITIMATE MLM????" There are many companies that are legal but not very good - I have friends that we're in Mannatech and Usana, both companies that make money, that couldn't make money themselves do to restrictive qualifications and hoops to jump through. With the addition of skills needed to know what to look for in a partner vs as an investor - both the company and distributor are more successful...

    www.mentorkyle.info

  • Report this Comment On June 06, 2009, at 2:54 AM, criticalmass411 wrote:

    Barry Minkow of the private "Fraud Discovery Institute"

    biggest claim to fame is that he was a con-artist and a crook featured on 60 minutes. How this qualifies him and his private "Fraud Discovery Institute" as a reputable authority in the financial markets is beyond me. Wikipedia says this about Barry Minkow and his private Fraud Discovery Institute... "Barry Minkow almost always holds a position (usually short selling) in securities that he reports on."

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 5:02 PM, JustinRoether wrote:

    In March 2009 Pre-Paid Legal was called a "deathbed stock" when the shares were at $29.86 per share. Keep in mind legal plans are common practice in some other countries and Pre-Paid Legal hasn't even scratched the surface on market penetration in the U.S.

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Related Tickers

11/10/2009 11:20 AM
EME $25.34 Down -0.06 -0.24%
EMCOR Group, Inc. CAPS Rating: *****
PPD $42.26 Up +0.59 +1.42%
Pre-Paid Legal Ser… CAPS Rating: *
ENDP $23.01 Down -0.19 -0.80%
Endo Pharmaceutica… CAPS Rating: *****
FORTY $11.44 Up +0.13 +1.11%
Formula Systems (1… CAPS Rating: ***
MTEX $2.96 Down -0.12 -3.89%
Mannatech, Inc. CAPS Rating: *
USNA $29.69 Down -0.31 -1.03%
USANA Health Scien… CAPS Rating: *

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