This Week's 5 Smartest Stock Moves

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Disney Buys Marvel!

David Gardner called it. He’s up 1,334%! See what David’s recommending that you buy NEXT.

If you're feeling good about the market, you're not alone. Take my hand as we go over some of this week's more uplifting headlines.

1. Amazon knows how to cross the state line
First it was North Carolina. Now it's Rhode Island and Hawaii. Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) is booting affiliates in states that are threatening to pass legislation that would force Amazon to charge and collect taxes at the state level.

The bills suggest that Amazon has a presence in their states, even if it's just a hobbyist train collector who uses Amazon ads on his free-hosted blog to earn a little commissionable revenue from the world's leading online retailer.

My heart goes out to members of the Amazon Associates program in North Carolina and Rhode Island, but the e-tailer is doing the right thing. Competition is cutthroat in cyberspace, and delivered pricing is everything. Besides, unlike smaller chains that live and die by affiliate marketing, Amazon has evolved over the years. Shoppers go to Amazon.com directly because they know it carries just about anything. It won't lose out on a whole lot of revenue. The only real losers are the states that figured they would fatten their collections, only to realize that they will actually shrink as web-entrepreneurs residing in their states earn less taxable income.

2. Netflix is one in a million  
Three years after daring data-hungry developers to top its proprietary Cinematch flick-recommendation platform, Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) may finally have a winner. A multi-national team has apparently topped the requirement to nab a $1 million award from Netflix, besting the Cinematch system baseline by 10% or better.

Thousands of teams have been trying to improve on the Netflix data-mining functionality that spits out DVD recommendations based on rental histories and star ratings. Whether it's the money or the academia, the challenge has generated a lot of publicity for Netflix.

For starters, the fact that it's taken roughly three years is a testament to the original Cinematch platform. If thousands of frenzied teams of brainiacs took this long to improve it, how will any other company rival Netflix for getting into the psyche of the couch potato and knowing just what they'll want to see next?

Well played, Netflix. It's a million bucks well spent.

3. Satellite radio: Born to run
You know you're nimble when you're able to launch a 24/7 Michael Jackson tribute channel less than two days after the iconic pop singer died. Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) then kept the event-driven programming coming, announcing 4th of July content that includes a Bruce Springsteen concert (that will be recorded today in Germany), a live Jamie Foxx Independence Day show from Las Vegas, and a child psychiatry marathon on its health and medical channel.

Is it any surprise that the company also decided to extend CEO Mel Karmazin's term this week, bumping up his pay in the process? Shares of Sirius XM may be trading for jukebox change, but it's hard to fathom the merger between Sirius and XM even being attempted by anyone other than the bold Karmazin at the helm.

4. Let's go logrolling
After a dozen mostly successful IPOs during the second quarter, the third quarter got off to a strong start with yesterday's debut LogMeIn (Nasdaq: LOGM). The remote connectivity specialist priced its IPO at $16. It popped at the open to $20, closing at $20.02.

Is a market cap of nearly $430 million justifiable for a company that has posted annual losses in each of the past three years, clocking in with revenue of just $51.7 million last year? Mr. Market seems to think so.

It certainly helps that LogMeIn is growing quickly, with 22.1 million registered users and counting. It also began 2009 with a healthy first quarter profit. 

5. Gosh, Oshkosh
Shares of Oshkosh (NYSE: OSK) soared 27% yesterday, after the company was awarded a $1 billion military contract for its armored mine-resistant vehicles. It's not every day that a company wins an order that is roughly the size of its market cap.

Oshkosh beat out larger contractors like General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) and Navistar (NYSE: NAV) for the order, but it's willing to share the love. Oshkosh plans to subcontract some of the work to its disappointed rivals.

The real winner, of course, will be the military personnel who will soon be able to get around in sturdier trucks.

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Amazon.com and Netflix are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks. General Dynamics is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is an optimist at every turn. He's the inspiration for The Killers' "Mr. Brightside" song. He does not own shares in any of the stocks in this story, save for Netflix. Rick is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On July 02, 2009, at 3:58 PM, jrusso9722 wrote:

    This Oshkosh win suggests a turning point for the company. Now that M-ATV is building to save our sons and daughters, it may have a role in replacing a portion of the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle, (JLTV) Why, how? It can do many missions of the JLTV and is ahead of it by 24 months. Modifications can be quickly done by OSK to tweak the platform. There is alot more of Oshkosh Engineering, Design and Manufacture to come, that cannot be provided by any other manufacturer.

  • Report this Comment On July 02, 2009, at 4:18 PM, brandostr wrote:

    everything I read suggested that 5,250 some units will be made minimum!!!! Wow if that is true watch this stock explode!!!

  • Report this Comment On July 02, 2009, at 4:19 PM, brandostr wrote:

    everything I read suggested that 5,250 some units will be made minimum!!!! Wow if that is true watch this stock explode!!! ---- That is the stock of OSK

  • Report this Comment On July 02, 2009, at 5:15 PM, plange01 wrote:

    looks like its logmeout! a few years ago a joke like this would not even make it public!

  • Report this Comment On July 02, 2009, at 10:00 PM, nerios wrote:

    SiriusXM reports today 513 000 downloads of their new App on the iPhone App Store - that may be true, but it is also the fastest App to be deleted from iPhones in history! You see, SIRI charges an additional fee for that service, but with limited channels lineup as on conventional SiriusXM receivers - the existing subscribers are FURIOUS! That's not good when you are running a subscription-only based company. I encourage everyone considering investing in SIRI to read the reviews on the Apple App Store, under the SIRIUSXM App, to be convinced that something is wrong with the current customer appreciation of the product. I never seen such an long-awaited App scoring so low on the chart after its launch. Loyal customers for years are now threatening to unsubscribe from SIRIUS or not renew their contracts for that sole reason. Wow!

    I'm convince that many will. Why? Because, the progressive slashing of most of the differentiating music channels, over the last 5 years, by SiriusXM, the one thing that made the concept special; the availability of cheaper (and sometime free) musical alternatives like LastFM, Pandora, doesn't make Satellite Radio as attractive 6 years ago. Remember, 6 years ago, there was no iPod either... It leaves (only) the numerous fans of H.Stern to support SIRIUS now - but the last iPhone App denied them the pleasure, and that, for a $35/yr fee! Not to mention a $25/yr increase in royalty fee yesterday - that adds up to $60/yr on top of the $240/yr already paid by the average subscriber. Enough is enough, they are saying to Mel K.

    To look at stock performance and outlook is good, but the future fundamentals for this company is linked to one thing - customer satisfaction of the product offering. None of it is happening under this administration. Satellite radio could easily be replaced in the near future by mobile products using 3G (4G in 2010) and wifi at home. Soon it could even be replaced in cars, with the new 4G cell technology that will link a car with the cell network while driving. We already see those iPod/iPhones-ready car stereo - moving radios another step towards obliviousness. Are we on the verge of witnessing another 1 to 2 years of struggles and good memories of what could have been a great technology?

  • Report this Comment On July 03, 2009, at 11:07 AM, ralston3057 wrote:

    Nerios,

    I would like to offer you some good financial advice: Cover your short position while you can, use any proceeds you may have and go LONG SIRI. It will be the best investment you can make.

    If you look at the stock rise since its lows in February it has risen over 900%. The great thing about it is that it is still extremely undervalued.

    For anyone seriously considering what NERIOS is writing, I would urge you to read the following articles:

    http://www.marketintelligencecenter.com/articles/897376

    http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/30/technology/sirius_xm_satelli...

  • Report this Comment On July 07, 2009, at 8:55 AM, BullishBroker74 wrote:

    By Brandon Matthews

    Traditional forms of media including television, radio and print are threatened by the success of Sirius XM Radio (SIRI). There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the organizations behind traditional forms of media have united on a single front to denigrate the Satellite Radio provider at any and all costs. I know this first hand as most of the negative comments left on Satwaves.com can be traced back to everything from terrestrial radio station operators to the National Association of Broadcasters. These traditional media conglomerates control everything most people see and hear. Consider if you will the number 1 hit by the Black Eyed Peas in which the words “Satellite Radio” have been bleeped out by terrestrial radio stations from coast to coast.

    In the years since Howard Stern first joined Sirius, traditional media has made a point of downplaying Howard Stern's relevance. Just last October, the Los Angeles Times published this article which made the claim that Howard Stern was no longer relevant, and that his listeners had dwindled to a fraction of the number that once tuned in. The Los Angeles Times happens to be owned by Tribune; “America’s largest employee-owned media company, operating businesses in publishing, interactive and broadcasting.” The same article was syndicated and republished on an almost daily basis for several weeks that followed, assuring that the story would be told in every major U.S. market and maintain a top ranked listing in google news search results.

    That is why I could not help but laugh hysterically at the newest media attempts to control the American public’s view of Sirius XM Radio through new articles that claim Howard Stern will leave Sirius XM nearly two years from now. These articles now make the claim that Howard Stern is so important and popular, that Sirius XM’s survival hinges on whether or not Howard decides to stay with Sirius XM when his contract comes up for renewal in 2011! Unfortunately, some people seem to be buying into this manipulation and fear-mongering. The reach of these media outlets is unlimited in scope.

    As an example, on the eve of Sirius XM’s announcement that its iPhone application had reached a million downloads, a story was written suggesting that Sirius XM stock would be a good short sale candidate by a known writer who has denigrated Sirius for years. I recall writing that it seemed like a signal was being sent on the Satwaves forums the moment I read it. As trading progressed the following day it looked as if Sirius XM stock would rise precipitously on the iPhone application news. CNBC even picked up the story, but if you follow Sirius XM you knew what was coming next.

    It was then reported that the app, despite having over a million downloads, had a low rating based on the absence of The Howard Stern Show. The very same show that the media has been proclaiming to be irrelevant. The stock ended the day's session flat as a result. Out of nearly 19 million subscribers and out of 1 million iPhone app downloads, the app was given a low rating by a mere 38,000 people. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that anyone can bash the application, whether or not they even own an Apple device. I rated the application 5 stars, and I have no iPod nor iPhone. I simply signed up using my AOL account. It can hardly be deemed a reliable source of consumer sentiment compared to the fact that it remains the number 1 downloaded music application.

    As for Howard Stern, terrestrial radio is already on life support. Clear Channel is knocking on bankruptcy’s door. When it comes to radio companies, there is only one that is growing. There is only one that can offer Howard the freedom to do his show and produce new shows without fear of retribution from the FCC. By the year 2011, it is probable that no radio company in existence would be able to afford Howard Stern while offering him a minuscule percentage of his current national audience. Only one radio company can offer The Howard Stern Show a potential global audience in the years to come. That radio company is Sirius XM Radio.

    As for the media manipulation: People should make a stand. If you’d like to be told what to read and hear only that which is selected for you, you might want to consider a move to North Korea. Turn off your am/fm radios. Pick up a Satellite Radio and subscription. Send a message to traditional media that they cannot control what you see and what you hear. I have and in this lies true freedom.

    Position: Long SIRI

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