While there weren’t any fireworks per se last week, we finished off the holiday-shortened week with a bit of a thud, as lackluster jobs news capped the week. Volume was light for much of the week and markets were closed on Friday. For the week ended July 2:
Dow: Down 1.9% to 8280.74
S&P 500: Down 2.4% to 896.42
Nasdaq: Down 2.3% to 1796.52
The all-important jobs number brought the reality of the recession to the forefront. A greater-than-forecast 467,000 jobs were lost in June, bringing the U.S. unemployment rate to 9.5% from 9.4% in May. Though the market is a discounting machine, the data point fueled worries that recovery could be farther off than the market has baked in.
The jobs number highlighted the very real threat to the anemic positive trends we’ve seen in economic data that could cause a double dip down in the recession. For instance, last week, the ISM manufacturing index, a thermometer for manufacturing activity in the U.S., hinted that the sharp decline in U.S. manufacturing activity has slowed, and the S&P/Case-Shiller index, which measures home prices in 20 major cities, hinted that stabilization in home prices could be on the horizon. However, rising unemployment could suppress progress and cause a reversal in positive trends.
I’ve marveled at the market’s ability to stay positive in the face of lackluster news the past three months -- the way it looked at data as “less bad” than expectations for dire data. However, the jobs number seemed to all of a sudden bring back the logical trade: “sell off on the bad news.” As more economic data and quarterly earnings come out, we’ll see if this trend continues.
Companies in the news ...
Enterprise software company Oracle
Pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson
The three biggest carmakers, Toyota
Welcome to the third quarter!
Earnings season starts in earnest this week with Alcoa
Earnings will be a major catalyst for this market in the coming weeks. The past rally was driven by “less bad” economic data and corporate earnings. Expectations now are higher than before, and may be harder to beat as a result
On the economic data front, this week brings the ISM services index. Out today is the May consumer credit, the trade balance, and the Reuters/University of Michigan Sentiment index.
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