Great Call on Disney! What's Next?

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Is a mouse a match for a global recession? Mortal mice might buckle, but if you're talking about Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Mickey Mouse, then you've got a serious clash of titans.

Disney's first quarter certainly showed that the company isn't immune to recessionary forces, as net income fell 46% from the prior year. However, with a particularly deep lineup -- which includes all things Hannah Montana, Desperate Housewives, the ESPN network, and a collection of Disney theme parks -- it'd be surprising to see the Mouse held down for long.

Though Disney hasn't quite hit the five-star level, The Motley Fool's CAPS community has given the stock four stars, which definitely makes it worth a closer look. More than 3,700 CAPS members have rated Disney an outperformer, but none have read the stock as well as primetime300, who has made three on-the-money outperform calls on Disney starting at the beginning of 2008, racking up 34 points on those picks.

primetime300 is one of CAPS' All-Stars -- players with a rating of 80 or greater -- and has managed an impressive stock-picking accuracy of 74% while racking up more than 2,100 points. Disney isn't this player's only great call. Here's a look at a few of the other prescient picks:

Company

Date Picked

Call

Points

CAPS Rating (out of 5)

Citigroup (NYSE: C)

Feb. 27, 2009

Outperform

58

**

Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK)

Feb. 13, 2008

Outperform

53

*****

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL)

Feb. 4, 2008

Outperform

50

****

Data from CAPS.

So what is this investor looking at these days? Here are a few of the most recent calls on CAPS:

Company

Date Picked

Call

CAPS Rating (out of 5)

Interoil (NYSE: IOC)

July 6, 2009

Underperform

*

Linn Energy (Nasdaq: LINE)

June 24, 2009

Outperform

****

Visa (NYSE: V)

June 12, 2009

Underperform

***

Data from CAPS.

While not all of these picks may pan out, they could be a good place to start some further research. I decided to take a closer look at Visa.

Who's right on Visa?
It's important to note that although Visa has only a three-star rating on CAPS, the vast majority of members who have rated it have a favorable outlook. There have been enough members rating the stock an underperformer though, that its rating is stuck at that three-star purgatory.

Why the disagreement? If we asked CAPS All-Star TotoMMB to speak on behalf of the bears, here's what we'd get:

Was bullish with IPO, but downturn is going to hit this hard. They were silently profiting while credit was doled out without a second thought. Now, with banks raising rates and slashing limits, they are mandating frugality - or at least using cash. When the populace is doing whatever they can to not have debt, you can't charge a percentage on 0. Good for the masses, bad for the banks (and therefore Visa and [MasterCard]).

Of course, the bulls have a pretty compelling case of their own. djmassi recently rated the stock an outperformer and said:

As cash based transactions shrink at an exponential rate Visa will reap the benefits as the best positioned company globaly. This stock got beat down a bit because some lumped it in with banks, but with check cards all the rage Visa will continue to get their fee for transactions, even during the downturn!

Although I really like Visa's business model -- particularly the fact that it doesn't take on credit risk directly -- I'm not quite ready to give the stock a thumbs-up in my CAPS portfolio. I've been concerned about the stock's valuation since it came public in March 2008, and though the valuation is well down from its peak, it's still a little rich for my taste.

But here's the important question: What's your take on it? Will Visa's enviable business model and strong brand prove that it deserves a premium valuation? Get in the action by clicking over to CAPS. It's absolutely free, and our community already has more than 135,000 stock-pickers chipping in to find the best stocks out there.

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Walt Disney is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection. Chesapeake Energy and Walt Disney are Motley Fool Inside Value selections. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days

Fool contributor Matt Koppenheffer does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned. He is keeping a close eye on some of these stocks through his CAPS portfolio. You can also connect with Matt on Twitter @KoppTheFool. The Fool's disclosure policy thinks working like a dog seems like a great life -- especially if you're Matt's dog, Lucy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On July 07, 2009, at 12:31 PM, kencooksam wrote:

    Another poorly researched article on IOC. CC today outlined a stripping plant with NPV of $700 million to open in 2011. That makes IOC a $55 a stock. If oil bounces to the $130 area thats $80 a share. Bidding process has over 30 qualified bidders.Vhinese have indicated they will pay $500 million. CEO and PM of PNG in Japan today working on the deals. Alld eals to be complete by year end is what I undersand. All one needs is one deal in reality for x % of IOC at Y price. Then the stock flys..Hot money leaving today Bye Bye.Motley Fool lives up to their name lately FOOL.Shame on you for not doing fundamental research on a stock!!!

  • Report this Comment On July 08, 2009, at 9:56 PM, TMFKopp wrote:

    @kencooksam

    Can I ask what part of the article was wrong about IOC? What's noted in the table is that the CAPS member listed above rated the stock an underperformer and that the stock carries an overall one-star rating on CAPS.

    Neither are debatable opinions, nor are they misreported facts. In fact, you can double-check the truth of both by visiting CAPS (http://caps.fool.com -- it's free).

    If your goal here was to tout IOC's stock, that's fine, but next time you may want to make sure you've read and understood what the article is saying before you start tossing around accusations.

    Matt

  • Report this Comment On July 10, 2009, at 8:56 AM, kencooksam wrote:

    Matt

    Don't know who you are. But you bash IOC on a regular basis.IOC is up 100% year to date and the market Matt??The S&P Matt.I posted on your board and am a Cap member. One has to ask who pays Motley Fool to bash IOC. ?? If you are not paid then in repsondsile journalism wheres the Fair and Balanced??You are not balanced and thus not FAIR. Thus one has to ask WHY??See this below.

    Platts IOC to name partners SOON!! Interview CEO Mulacek

    Tokyo (Platts)--9Jul2009

    The InterOil-led Papua New Guinea LNG project is about to narrow down the

    field to "a few" potential partners to take a stake of 25-35% in the

    development, with an eye to making a decision by the end of this year, the

    Canada-based company's chairman and CEO Phil Mulacek said in an interview this

    week.

    "We [gave] access to 30 companies interested [in the project]," Mulacek

    said. "We are now trimming [them] down to a few groups," he said of the

    ongoing qualification round.

    InterOil plans to invite new partners to take a 25-35% share of

    developing the Antelope gas structure, liquefaction and offtake. "We are

    working in the qualification through partners to join our project first, and

    then [the] next stage is the LNG offtake," Mulacek said.

    The interested companies included "a couple of Japanese consortiums," and

    also came from China, Europe and the US, Mulacek said, declining to identify

    any of the parties. He was scheduled to meet a number of Japanese companies in

    Tokyo over July 7-8.

    Mulacek would not detail definitive time frames for concluding the

    qualification round, but said "it is in everyone's interest to get

    negotiations to define [it] as quickly as possible." Speaking to Platts in

    Tokyo in May, Mulacek had said InterOil was planning to make a decision on new

    partners "over the next two to three months."

    InterOil is also drilling the Antelope-2 well over the next 90 days to

    define oil and heavy condensate as part of serialized efforts to certify

    reserves, Mulacek said. The LNG project is based on reserves in the Elk and

    Antelope gas fields.

    "We have certified between 3.4 and 4.7 Tcf of gas as of December 31,

    [2008]" he said. "All the parties have upgraded that to 6.1-7.3 Tcf [in their

    interim reports]. The utilities want 2 to 4 Tcf, so we clearly have more than

    enough gas requirement for the first [LNG] train," Mulacek added.

    The project's first LNG production train would have a capacity of 3.5

    million mt/year and a nominal throughput of 4 million mt/year.

    "They [potential buyers] can now price the gas, but what we cannot yet

    define is the question whether there is 100 million barrels of condensate or

    oil or is there 500 million barrels? We do not know yet but we know it is

    going to be a very significant amount," he added. InterOil's current estimate

    for the field's oil reserve is 100 million barrels.

    "All we can do [now] is work with the Japanese consortium to work out a

    pricing structure," Mulacek said. "As the liquids and oil are finally defined

    then we can proceed with closing. This is the mechanism we are focused on," he

    added.

    "We have had expression [of interest] for 100% of the offtake so we are

    very comfortable," Mulacek added. "In an agreement we design for two trains,

    but we are looking at this one after another."

    InterOil and its project partners PNG's national petroleum and mining

    company Petromin PNG and Pacific LNG, an investment arm of Switzerland's

    Clarion Finanz, now plan to make a final investment decision on an oil and

    condensate development at Antelope this year. Oil and condensate output from

    the project would start up in 2010 and 2011 respectively, Mulacek said.

    The final investment decision for the LNG project is targeted for 2010,

    with production planned to start in 2014.

    Separately, Petromin is seeking an offtake-for-debt agreement with Japan

    to fund its purchase of equity in the LNG project, Mulacek said, declining to

    elaborate. The company is seeking up to $500 million in financing from Japan

    and in turn would offer 20%, or at least 800,000 mt/year, of the project's LNG

    offtake under a 10-year agreement.

    Petromin is also in talks with state-owned Japan Bank for International

    Cooperation and Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation on the

    providing of financial support for PNG's upstream-to-downstream LNG chain.

    --Takeo Kumagai, takeo_kumagai@platts.com

  • Report this Comment On July 29, 2009, at 1:52 AM, flabanker wrote:

    It seems with every article I read which touts a fool member with a score of 99++, when I pull up their history it looks terrible. I am new to Fools, but what am I missing. When I checked out Fool Allstar Priemtime300 he has 145 current picks. On the first page he has only 16 out of 75 calls showing a green positive points. On the second page, out of 70 picks he has only one with green positive points and 69 wrong. That means out of 145 picks he has only 17 correct. I do not need to do the math to tell me he/she is losing on nearly 90%. Good thing he isn't using real money. Please tell me where I am wrong. This person can not be one of your best. The same for StatGeek, but maybe even worse and his score was 99.98????? What is the deal.

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Related Tickers

12/2/2009 2:11 PM
LINE $25.30 Up +0.26 +1.05%
Linn Energy, LLC CAPS Rating: *****
V $82.28 Down -0.69 -0.83%
Visa, Inc. CAPS Rating: ***
DIS $30.68 Down -0.05 -0.16%
The Walt Disney Co… CAPS Rating: ****
C $4.05 Down -0.05 -1.22%
Citigroup, Inc. CAPS Rating: **
CHK $23.25 Down -0.85 -3.53%
Chesapeake Energy… CAPS Rating: *****
HAL $28.94 Down -0.41 -1.39%
Halliburton Compan… CAPS Rating: ****

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