2-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Navistar?

• Email
• Share
• Print

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 135,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, commercial vehicle manufacturer Navistar International (NYSE: NAV) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Navistar's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Navistar facts

Headquarters (founded)	Warrenville, Ill. (1902)
Market Cap	$2.88 billion
Industry	Construction & farm machinery and heavy trucks
TTM Revenue	$13.6 billion
Management	President/CEO Daniel Ustian CFO Andrew Cederoth
Earnings Per Share Growth (average, last five years)	11.8%
Cash/Debt	$594 million/$5.65 billion
Competitors	Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) Deere (NYSE: DE)
CAPS members bearish on NAV also bearish on	Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG) Palm (Nasdaq: PALM)
CAPS members bullish on NAV also bullish on	Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)

Sources: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's, and Motley Fool CAPS. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over on CAPS, 31 of the 161 members who have rated Navistar -- some 19% -- believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include All-Stars elkwingcaddis and mrindependent, both of whom are ranked in the top 7% of our community.

In February, elkwingcaddis tapped Navistar as a particularly unsafe investment vehicle:

Capital Intensive Business … a high risk of bankruptcy, heavy debt load, low cash flow compared to sales and in 2008 half the cash flow was adjustments to income (?). Only positive news is sales of defense related vehicles and Obama is ready to put a damper on that. This company could be headed toward bankruptcy.

In a pitch from last week, mrindependent confirms those cash-flow concerns with some firsthand insight:

I did business with Cummins and Navistar when I was a manufacturing executive. … A review of the ten year balance sheet shows what I know from experience. Navistar stretched payments to suppliers to extreme levels in order to reduce their operating capital requirements. This game is at an end. No supplier is going to accept 120 day terms in today's economy. I added up net earnings for this company over the last ten years. The cumulative total was positive $300 million, which is $30 million per year compared to a market cap of $3.17 billion and debt of $5 billion. Sounds a little thin. The company's book value is NEGATIVE. … Tough economic times are ahead and Navistar is positioned in all the wrong places.

What do you think about Navistar, or any other stock for that matter? Make your voice heard on Motley Fool CAPS today. More than 135,000 investors are waiting to hear what you have to say. CAPS is 100% free, so simply click here to get started.