You Missed the Best Day to Buy

Recs

6

There was once a woman who prayed every day for 20 years that she'd win the lottery. Every single day. Finally, in despair, she said, "God, I've been a true and faithful servant and have lived an exemplary life. Why won't you grant me this one thing?"

"Look," said God, "at least meet me halfway -- buy a lottery ticket."

Buy the ticket
Similarly, in order to take advantage of the greatest long-term wealth-building machine available to individual investors, you have to be in the market. And if the current craziness is keeping you away because you fear further big drops, you're ignoring the advice of some of history's top investors.

In the latest edition of his book Stocks for the Long Run, Jeremy Siegel charted returns for a hypothetical unlucky investor who happened to invest at the absolute top of six major 20th-century market peaks. After 30 years, this investor actually accumulated four times more wealth in stocks than he would have in bonds, and five times more than in T-bills. For a 20-year period, he doubled the bonds’ return.

There's more where that came from
Consider John Templeton, founder of Templeton Growth Fund and widely regarded as one of the best investors of his generation. His advice about getting into the market is simple: "The best time to invest is when you have money. This is because history suggests it is not timing which matters, it is time."

Our own David and Tom Gardner, who've beaten the market by a tremendous amount in Motley Fool Stock Advisor, also eschew timing the market. "The best time to invest was yesterday," says Tom. "The next best time is today."

So even though the tongue-in-cheek title of this article implies you've missed your best chance, you can see that you really haven't. If you've got money you won't need for five years or more, just get in the game as soon as you can.

Still need convincing? I looked back a decade, specifically searching for companies that had been up 25% or more in one year. Surely, many investors back then were worried that stocks were too rich and ready for a great fall.

Well, a gnarly bear market did start up a year later, and yes, these stocks fell. And yet despite their large prior one-year gains, and despite two big bear markets (including the current one), their returns have been strong for those who held for the long term -- especially when compared to a market that has lost 27% in the meantime.

Company

July 1998-
July 1999

July1999-
July 2009

Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK)

50%

423%

Savient Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SVNT)

29%

60%

Nuance Communications (Nasdaq: NUAN)

94%

345%

Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY)

26%

55%

Sigma Designs (Nasdaq: SIGM)

115%

202%

American Superconductor (Nasdaq: AMSC)

35%

86%

Take-Two Interactive (Nasdaq: TTWO)

31%

80%

There are no guarantees
Many of our companies are being tested again by the financial crisis. Yet history shows that if you can find superior businesses with good management, hold for the long haul, and add new money regularly, you will rarely be disappointed.

That's the advice David and Tom give to their Stock Advisor members, and they help them with not only new recommendations each month but also the top five stocks to buy right now. They've been at it a long time, through bear and bull, and their recommendations are beating the S&P 500 by an average of 42 percentage points each.

Right now a special no-obligation free trial will give you access to all these stocks as well as Tom and Dave's top five stocks to buy now. Here's more information.

Already subscribe to Stock Advisor? Log in at the top of this page.

This article was originally published Jan. 25, 2008. It has been updated.

Rex Moore is a Fool analyst and thinks now is a good time to buy stocks (though he owns none mentioned in this article). Nuance Communications is a Motley Fool Hidden Gems selection. Sigma Designs and Take-Two Interactive Software are Rule Breakers selections. Chesapeake Energy is an Inside Value recommendation. The Fool owns shares of Chesapeake Energy. This information is brought to you by the Fool's disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On August 07, 2009, at 5:53 AM, rfacas wrote:

    While I agree with the premise of the article in terms of quality stocks, but the devil is in the details. The stocks illustrated were cherry-picked to support the argument. I'm sure an argument can be made supported by stock averages and indices that buying and holding stocks for the last ten years has resulted in losses taking into account cumulative inflation.

    What the author should have done was use stocks that the Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommended in July 1998 as well as July 1999.

  • Report this Comment On August 08, 2009, at 7:13 PM, ozzfan1317 wrote:

    If you do your own research you can crush the market if you dont want to bother buy an Index fund in the long term you'll still get a decent return for a lot less work.

  • Report this Comment On August 08, 2009, at 9:59 PM, majordm wrote:

    SO, did i miss it or what exactly was the 'best day to buy'?

    THOUGHT SO.

    whatever date you might name if you look on the motley fool homepage for that day it probably reads, 'It's over! Buy your gun NOWWWWW!!!!!! HOARD GOOOLLLLDDDD!'

    etc.

    You are full of it.

    Have a nice day.

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