Recs

12

Get Ready for a 25% Drop

My friend swears he's learned his lesson.

Back in July 1995, this friend -- let's call him Charlie -- bought Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) at what turned out to be the highest price it would see that year. The stock was down 15% in no time, and Charlie was worried. He was smart enough to know the market is the best wealth-creating machine available to us regular folks, but stocks to him were sort of like husbands to Elizabeth Taylor. He liked them well enough, but he tended to give up when things got a little rocky.

In a matter of weeks, his paper loss was approaching 25%, and he couldn't stand it anymore. He bailed out.

Needless to say, the next few years were even rougher on Charlie as he watched Mr. Softy march steadily higher. It achieved 10-bagger status at the height of the bull market in 2000, but even today it's more than 350% higher than when he sold.

Get ready for a 25% drop
As Tom and David Gardner tell their Motley Fool Stock Advisor members, you have to expect significant dips from some of your stocks, and you must remain firm if you've done your homework. Otherwise, you sort of screw up that legendary investing formula by buying high and selling low.

This table should really drive home the point for you. In a decade in which the market lost about 15%, these companies turned in some truly life-changing gains.

Company

10-year gain

Largest drop

Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX  )

279%

79%

Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD  )

967%

60%

Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM  )

342%

46%

Hudson City Bancorp (Nasdaq: HCBK  )

815%

55%

Express Scripts (Nasdaq: ESRX  )

731%

65%

AutoZone (NYSE: AZO  )

549%

35%

Data provided by Capital IQ.

So, the lesson Charlie learned is that practically all of the great superstar stocks of the past decades have dropped at least 25% at one time or another. It will be very hard for you to find one that hasn't.

Hey, I'll be the first to admit that many stocks drop 25% and keep dropping. That can happen when a business that has no real competitive advantages to begin with gets the rug pulled out from under it. It happened to me several years ago, and, like a shell-shocked boxer, I still duck when I hear the name CMGI. (Shudder.)

Lesson learned
We've all learned some things throughout the years. But if, like Tom Gardner says, you can invest for decades, add money to your existing holdings steadily over time, and stay committed to focusing on truly great businesses, you stand to make a fortune.

For the seven years since Stock Advisor was launched, the Gardners' recommendations are beating the S&P 500 by an average of 43 percentage points each. Interested in which stocks to start with? Try a no-obligation 30-day free trial and you'll see Tom and David's five best buys for new money now. Here's more information.

This article was originally published on Jan. 8, 2007. It has been updated.

Rex Moore lathers and rinses, but never repeats. Of the companies mentioned in this article, he owns shares of Microsoft. Microsoft and Starbucks are Inside Value recommendations. Starbucks is also a Stock Advisor selection and Fool holding. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 3:59 PM, greenwave3 wrote:

    Autozone has enjoyed its successes, but is currently one of the most overpriced stocks out there. They have a very high (and expanding) debt ratio, negative book value, and are using all available cash to re-purchase shares at inflated prices.

    I understand that AZO's largest shareholder, Eddie Lampert, wants to preserve the value of his investment, but at what cost? AZO is literally a hiccup away from insolvency.

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 5:51 PM, BergyUK wrote:

    Well there seems to be a consensus view that the US stock market will make a good fall some time between now and Christmas. Everyone would like a rapid recovery, but realistically it is asking too much. There is just so much damage out there in the whole world and things are still getting worse not better. Go with the rally(s) just watch out for the rug being pulled out from under your feet, there may not be much of a warning! There is no doubt this is a Depression and not a Recession. This means a long and painful slump to recoverey. Still that just means picking the right stocks ultimately. Some companies can do very well in Recession/Depression. For now it seems to be the case to go with whatever keeps rising. Again just watch out for the fall. CASH IS KING IN RECESSION/DEPRESSION, gold is better, it doesn't tarnish or come from an over zealous printing press! Dollar + Time = Ouch

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Related Tickers

2/13/2012 4:00 PM
MSFT $30.58 Up +0.09 +0.28%
Microsoft Corp CAPS Rating: ***
SBUX $49.25 Up +0.43 +0.88%
Starbucks CAPS Rating: ***
YUM $64.58 Down -0.16 -0.25%
Yum! Brands CAPS Rating: ****
HCBK $6.97 Down -0.05 -0.64%
Hudson City Bancor… CAPS Rating: ****
AZO $358.46 Up +4.36 +1.23%
AutoZone, Inc. CAPS Rating: *
ESRX $49.79 Down -0.38 -0.76%
Express Scripts, I… CAPS Rating: ****
GILD $54.90 Up +1.15 +2.14%
Gilead Sciences CAPS Rating: *****

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