A 1-in-100 Investor

• Email
• Share
• Print

The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how well investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. In this column, we're looking at our best members who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will be best next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is tuffsledding, who sports a top 99.93 member rating. A member since May 2007, tuffsledding currently has 186 active picks on CAPS, out of more than total 1,380 stock picks made. Achieving 78% accuracy, tuffsledding has attracted 119 "groupies," CAPS members who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections, and how they were rated:

Stock	CAPS Rating  (Out of 5)	Call	Price*	Current Score
American Tower	**	Outperform	$36.21	1.50
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)	***	Outperform	$178.00	4.25
Endeavor Silver	******	Outperform	$3.49	(10.67)
Fuqi International (Nasdaq: FUQI)	***	Outperform	$27.30	3.15
Jabil Circuit	***	Outperform	$12.00	5.40
Medtronic (NYSE: MDT)	****	Outperform	$10.52	7.87
Nam Tai Electronics	*****	Outperform	$5.95	(10.48)
Taseko Mines	*****	Outperform	$2.70	(6.25)
Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM)	*****	Outperform	$12.71	1.96

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. *Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about a few of these stocks, and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
Turns out Ford (NYSE: F) got while the getting was good after all. Despite a 4% increase in sales of gas-guzzling Land Rovers in 2007, it sold the luxury brand to Tata Motors, along with the Jaguar nameplate, early last year. Now Tata will have to close one of its two U.K. manufacturing plants, because sales at both brands have plummeted. Land Rover sales were down 17% last year, while Jaguar's -- which experienced a 24% drop in 2007, when it was still a part of Ford -- were off another 8% last year.

Of course, the one who really made out was BMW, which sold Land Rover and Jaguar to Ford in 2000 for almost twice what Ford realized from their sale to Tata. Ford is also trying to unload its money-losing Volvo brand, though a possible $2.5 billion bid by China's Geely could take away some of the sting from the loss: It's more than what Tata paid for its two flat tires.

None of this means Tata will go the way of General Motors and Chrysler. As CAPS member Ron07 notes, Tata may have a huge opportunity in a new design: "Not only is TATA Motors (TTM) the leading truck and bus manufacturer in India, TTM is now coming out with a car aimed at the burgeoning Indian middle-class, which is just big enough for 2 people and sells for only $2000. Currently there is about a 6-month back log for the NANO."

Hitting a C-note
According to the market researchers at MedMarket Diligence, drug-eluting stents command 60% of the share of all coronary stents worldwide, though individual markets such as those in China may be higher. Importantly, their growth is pegged at about 7%, twice the rate of regular stents.

While Medtronic finds itself trailing Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT), Boston Scientific, and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) in market share, it hopes new studies will change its fortunes, by showing that its Endeavor stent has a long-term safety profile that prevents restenosis. Stents are a framework that prop open arteries; over time, the blood vessels can narrow once more -- restenosis -- requiring that the procedure be performed again.

Highly rated CAPS All-Star yeraz believes a demographic shift will help Medtronic gain a larger slice of the $4 billion worldwide pie: "MDT is a major manufacturer of medical devices, especially heart devices, and they are going to be needed in increasing numbers to keep the baby boomers alive."

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS every investor's opinion counts, and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?