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"Big Coffee" Turns Around, Maybe

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Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) brewed up a venti serving of cheer with its most recent earnings.

Fourth-quarter net income was $150 million, or $0.20 per share, a far cry from the year-ago net income of $5.4 million, or $0.01 per share. Without one-time items, Starbucks' earnings would have been $0.24 per share, beating analysts' estimates for $0.21 per share; Starbucks was able to lower operating costs much more quickly than its sales declined, helping to boost profit.

Unfortunately, that also means Starbucks' sales didn't look quite as impressive. Revenue fell almost 4%, to $2.4 billion; the company noted that it operates fewer U.S. stores now, since the company has been working hard to close underperforming locations. Same-store sales fell 1%, although that figure shows improvement from last quarter's 5% decrease in comps.

The report did have its bright spots. Starbucks increased its earnings guidance, saying it now expects a 15% to 20% growth in adjusted earnings in 2010. And the company is looking for sales growth in the mid- to high single digits. It even plans to open some 100 stores in the U.S. and 200 internationally next year, although they will be primarily licensed stores.

Even with these signs of life, Starbucks still faces abundant challenges. As with many companies these days, cost cuts simply can't continue forever, and customer traffic will still have to improve to get growth back on track. (Of course, the more bullish stance would suggest that if Starbucks is operating more cost-effectively now, it'll be even more profitable once sales do return to more robust levels.)

Still, the java giant faces plenty of competition, from McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) low-priced, gourmet coffee options to the fancy coffee Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR) lets folks brew at home. There are other, more direct competitors, too, like Caribou (Nasdaq: CBOU) or Peet's Coffee & Tea (Nasdaq: PEET), which recently announced that it will acquire Diedrich Coffee (Nasdaq: DDRX).

I've been holding on to Starbucks through thick and thin, even as I've increasingly wondered whether its star is starting to tarnish. I'm glad to hear the coffee chain issue more positive news, but it's still got its work cut out for it. With unemployment having just hit a record-breaking 10.2%, Starbucks' high-end coffees may be an even tougher sell to scared consumers.

What do you think? Can Starbucks get back to its more caffeinated past? Let your thoughts percolate in the comments box below.

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Starbucks is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is a Rule Breakers pick. The Fool owns shares of Starbucks. Try any of our Foolish newsletters free for 30 days.

Alyce Lomax owns shares of Starbucks. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 06, 2009, at 7:40 PM, SBUX4u wrote:

    C'mon people. You know you want Starucks. What's that? McDonalds McCafe? Had one, and won't have one again. Green Mountain you say? Yeah if your Kurig works. No thanks, Peet. Just not that interested. Starbucks is a lifestyle so stop selling out to punks.

  • Report this Comment On November 06, 2009, at 10:22 PM, swagv wrote:

    Comon'. Starbucks top line is still sinking like the Titanic while competition like Peet's Coffee & Tea is partying on the Love Boat.

  • Report this Comment On November 07, 2009, at 1:08 AM, SBUX4u wrote:

    Sorry swagv, lifestyle and flavor for me. Quad Grande Latte' and a quick fix of oats is all I need. No dig on the new wannabe's but I'm not standing for this any longer. We're taking it back.

  • Report this Comment On November 08, 2009, at 1:07 AM, FromPlano wrote:

    Why SBUX is a Sell/Short

    Symbol PE PS Oper. Div. Margin (trl)

    SBUX 64 1.5 6.5 0 %

    MCD 16 2.0 28.3 3.6%

    YUM 16 1.5 14.2 2.2%

    Quarterly Result (Sep 27, '09) Compared to Last Year Same Quarter.

    -------------------------------------------------------------

    General Oper Expense INCREASED by: 38 %

    Net Revenues DECREASED by: 3.3%

    Specialty Food Svc Rev DECREASED by: 16.3%

    Licensing Fees: DECREASED by: 2.2 %

    1. SBUX saved $277M by reducing expenses yet made a profit of only $150M.

    2. LIABILITY for Accrued compensation and related costs INCREASED BY: 21.3%

    3. LIABILITY FOR Deferred Revenue INCREASED BY: 5.5%

    6. On Friday, Nov 6,2009, the stock traded twice the normal volume, which means that most of the buyers should be in by now. Who will keep buying the stock to support the price in the coming days ?

    7. Revenue growth as "projected" by SBUX will be in the single digits.

    8. Keep in mind that the official unemploumnet rate hit 10.2%; unoffical is 17.5%. So, if we are to believe the management, SBUX will grow its revenue even though unemployment will rise! Hmm.

    9. In the coming months, unemployment will increase by another 2 points. You have heard the phrase that we are having a "jobless recovery". Isn't "jobless recovery "oxymoronic"?

    10. Dunkin Donuts introducing 99-cents menu which includes a sausage, egg and cheese wrap; bacon, egg and cheese wrap; egg and cheese wrap; raspberry danish; hash browns; and a pack of five Munchkins.

    11. Stiff competition from the behemoth McDonald's MCD.

    12. If you'are a Pete Najarian fan of Fast Money then know that he prefers McDonald's Coffee to Starbuck's; he also prefers MCD stock over SBUX.

    13. If you are a Jim Cramer fan, then watch this video from the website www.thestreet.com, where he is "a shareholder and a director" -

    They Just Don't Get Starbucks!Marek Fuchs, TheStreet.com's media critic, sobs that CNBC lost its head with its Starbucks coverage.Sat 11/07/09

    -- Marek Fuchs

    http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/10623542/they-just-don...

    Do I have to say take profit now.

    Disclosure: I myself am Short SBUX.

  • Report this Comment On November 08, 2009, at 1:59 AM, FromPlano wrote:

    I have missed reason number 4 and 5 in the above post. So here they are:

    4. Competitor: GMCR

    5. Competitor: PEET

  • Report this Comment On November 08, 2009, at 8:40 PM, wolfhounds wrote:

    Yo Plano, couldn't have said it better. But I must add one more observation. MCD recently raised it's dividend (again) and is yielding about 3.7%.

  • Report this Comment On November 10, 2009, at 2:34 PM, c0ffeen0te wrote:

    The bull case made by a longtime bear (me) on the sbux board:

    http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28087920

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11/20/2009 4:04 PM
MCD $63.97 Up +0.56 +0.88%
McDonald's Corp CAPS Rating: ****
CBOU $7.86 Down -0.06 -0.76%
CARIBOU COFFEE COM… CAPS Rating: *
DDRX $25.99 Up +0.02 +0.08%
Diedrich Coffee, I… CAPS Rating: *
GMCR $65.01 Down -0.12 -0.18%
Green Mountain Cof… CAPS Rating: *
PEET $38.00 Down -0.22 -0.58%
Peet's Coffee & Te… CAPS Rating: **
SBUX $21.41 Down -0.12 -0.56%
Starbucks Corp CAPS Rating: **

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