Your Move, Diehard Gamers

Recs

2

Disney Buys Marvel!

David Gardner called it. He’s up 1,334%! See what David’s recommending that you buy NEXT.

My warnings of a problematic video game industry are gradually being validated. Don't take it from me. Take it from suddenly jittery bulls and retreating developers.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) downgraded GameStop (NYSE: GME) this morning, taking it off the firm's "conviction buy" list. The move comes a day after the video game retailer reiterated its guidance for its most recent quarter.

Goldman analyst Robert Higginbotham fears that industry sales data for the month of October -- scheduled to be released by industry watcher NPD Group tomorrow -- will be far bleaker than the estimate calling for a 9% to 11% year-over-year decline.

Lower console prices and a busy slate of releases -- championed by Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) The Beatles: Rock Band -- may have given data for September a temporary pop, but we're likely looking at an industry that has suffered year-over-year dips in seven of the past eight months.

It's not going to get a lot better at this point, and even the industry knows it.

On Monday, Electronic Arts (Nasdaq: ERTS) announced poor operating results that shocked few. However, it also revealed that it will be letting go of 1,500 employees as it pares down its product portfolio. In other words, EA will be putting out fewer games on a smaller payroll. The firings will deliver $100 million in annual cost savings, but what about the top line? Perhaps more importantly, what does it say about EA's perspective on where the industry is heading?

I get it. There's a lot of favorable buzz right now with yesterday's release of Activision Blizzard's (Nasdaq: ATVI) Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. All three video game consoles are a lot cheaper heading into the 2009 holiday shopping season than they were a year ago. Enjoy the optimism because it's likely to go away once NPD Group drops the verdict on what was surely a lackluster October.

Despite GameStop's reiterated guidance, Goldman Sachs doesn't want to be on the wrong side of a disappointing industry report. Despite its return to profitability, EA is staging a tactical retreat.

It's not pretty, gamers.

Where do you see the future of gaming? Did it peak for keeps? Let us know in the comment box below.

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Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts, and GameStop are Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendations. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services, free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz loves playing video games but he doesn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this story. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2009, at 3:18 PM, TheNine wrote:

    News just in;

    Modern Warfare 2 just smashed the inflated 1st day expectations. You're an analyst, i'm sure you have the resources necessary to find said information.

    I'm also looking forward to another 2 blockbusters through November in Assassin's Creed 2 and New Super Mario Bros Wii.

    November NPD will be YET ANOTHER sign that of all the industries that make up this wonderful market, it's in videogames where the dime a dozen analyst still remains ABSOLUTELY clueless.

    fool indeed.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2009, at 3:29 PM, BioBat wrote:

    In the short term (as in this week), I would say yes, the video game sector will be hurting.

    But once the November numbers come in, the analysts are going to look like fools because this month is full of blockbuster games - the ones that drive sales and have been missing for most of this year.

    Great video games have been and always will be like crack for gamers - they will line up by the millions and pay anything for a great franchise.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2009, at 3:36 PM, TheNine wrote:

    i can't believe the stuff i've been reading coming out of sources that alot of people actually look to for advice.

    it seems as if analysts in general are quick to hammer the industry down, without mentioning that 2009 has been a year completely void of GREAT games. That is up until this month.

    I wish someone with a little more pull would compile all these misinformed manipulative predictions into one beautiful source, so that you can all be exposed as clueless months from now.

    i really do, because i'm personally fed up, and can't believe that there's a payroll behind such short-sightedness.

    the gaming industry always has to work harder, because to be blunt, the men in suits simply don't understand it.

    Guitar Hero 5 missed it's target? Let's burn this sector to the ground.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2009, at 3:53 PM, BioBat wrote:

    The surprise shouldn't be that sales of games are down, rather it should be that they've remained as high as they have despite a unprecedented economic downturn and the almost complete lack of any blockbuster franchises. To me, that says a successful industry not one in decline.

    Hey, I don't really mind because these so called analytic geniuses have allowed me to continue buying premium gaming companies on the cheap all year long.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2009, at 4:00 PM, hondo928 wrote:

    I hope the Goldman analyst is right, I hope the October numbers decline 35% yoy and GME stock falls another 4% tomorrow. Then I will gladly buy the stock with a Pe below 10 who grew revenues in their used game sales, and wait till those November numbers come out and holiday sales. GME is probably canabalizing a bit of their same store sales, but they grew used sales and I'll take a 48% profit margin over a 7% one any day

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2009, at 6:00 PM, Smokedmartini wrote:

    I love reading your writers commentaries

    for the same reason I read the the funnies...

    You guys make me laugh..

    Great stuff maybe your writers could write part time for SNL.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2009, at 7:26 PM, michaelaknight wrote:

    Rick, I seriously hope you're hammering this market because you don't understand it, I could forgive that...but I have a feeling that you "analyists" are spreading this misinformation intentionally.

    TheNine said: "I wish someone with a little more pull would compile all these misinformed manipulative predictions into one beautiful source, so that you can all be exposed as clueless months from now."

    Yes, it's apparent that this is a concerted effort to manipulate a market sector, and in my opinion the cause has little to do with ignorance.

    BioBat said: "Hey, I don't really mind because these so called analytic geniuses have allowed me to continue buying premium gaming companies on the cheap all year long. "

    You and me both brother. I've been reading these game bashers alot lately, and just to rub it in I picked up another 100 shares of ATVI this morning for ~$6K total investment.

    http://worthplaying.com/article/2009/11/11/news/70141/ <--but what do sales figures prove anyway?...sheesh.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2009, at 7:27 PM, michaelaknight wrote:

    This just in...you're either intentionally spreading misinformation or your a complete plop.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2009, at 8:33 PM, murthg1 wrote:

    OK, Mr Munarriz, I completely disagree with your assessment (as does the Stock Advisor team) given the sales from ATVI...Without a crystal ball, I could of course, be entirely wrong as well... It would be helpful if the financial analysts who write on Fool.com to let us know what their accuracy scores are so it can help us assess how well their predictions worked out in the past.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2009, at 9:03 PM, naFOG wrote:

    So, the video game industry is still struggling, we get it. Making it seem like armageddon while writing for a website that preaches patience and long term investing, seems a little off.

    I'm hoping we see another 10% drop in ATVI...would love to add to my position on the cheap

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2009, at 9:08 PM, aussieguy73160 wrote:

    GME is more than ATVI/ERTS games, but really not by much.

    I agree with ATVI purchasing NOW and ERTS as well.

    Both companies have great titles and more to come.

    MW2 is huge, as was stated previously, ERTS has Battlefield Bad Company 2, that is being touted as ERTS answer to ATVI. Screen shots I have seen of the game look great and given the PS/3 server issue today with MW2, Bad Company is looking better all the time.

    No matter how bad the economy may get, hardcore gamers(see MW2 sales) will line up to buy the must have titles.

    Gaming is always changing, GME is where you get your game the day of release, AMZN is where you get your game tax free!!! :-)

    Looking forward to GME going down for a couple of weeks, then rebounding in April/May 2010. If ERTS hits with a blockbuster like ATVI with MW2.....oh yeah!!!!

    But that's up to the marketing department.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2009, at 10:07 PM, CTOmaster wrote:

    If TMF wishes to post this opinion, then I would wish it juxtaposed with the dissenting opinion from Stock Advisor.

  • Report this Comment On November 12, 2009, at 7:30 AM, samerrill66 wrote:

    There would appear to be a consensus here that I must join. From what I can tell this is a good time for value investors. There hasn't been any big games out till recently. I know back in August my kids had me preorder MW2. Along with alot of others. When I stood in line to get our copy There were several others that did the same. When I brought it home, the youngest was on the phone with a friend, and i quote "I'M HOLDING IT IN MY HAND NOW, RIGHT NOW". Can't wait to see the sales figures.

  • Report this Comment On November 12, 2009, at 8:28 AM, lodbjj wrote:

    Yawn, this same guy will be telling people to buy when ATVI is hitting new highs in a year or so. This is the time to buy into companies like ATVI, when they are beaten down. Proven management, no debt and a cash horde.

  • Report this Comment On November 12, 2009, at 9:37 AM, ASK82 wrote:

    quote "I get it. There's a lot of favorable buzz right now with yesterday's release of Activision Blizzard's (Nasdaq: ATVI) Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. All three video game consoles are a lot cheaper heading into the 2009 holiday shopping season than they were a year ago. Enjoy the optimism because it's likely to go away once NPD Group drops the verdict on what was surely a lackluster October."

    I dont think you get it at all!... and MW2 selling a whooping 500 million on a release date proves it~!!.

    Proving once again, that gamers dont really care about recession. If the line of games is GOOD, they will BUY IT!.

    but again, would this matters at all?, when last month gaming industry broke their 7 month year-over dip, what did all the analyst jump saying??? that the month was not as good as expected!! -.-;;;;;;Good as expected?. a very funny word when everybody was bashing video game sales. HAHA

    by the way, I dont think any gamer saw hardware sales going up!! guitar hero is just OLD, same thing happened with DDR, pump it up, and it was OVERDUE for guitar hero... Of course, it wasn't until recently that old people started to notice guitar hero.

    Too bad, NPD group will probably not include ATVI release, I guess that gives the investors another month to trashtalk game stocks!.

  • Report this Comment On November 12, 2009, at 9:42 AM, ASK82 wrote:

    my bad, I meant 300 million on release date!

  • Report this Comment On November 12, 2009, at 10:45 AM, BioBat wrote:

    Nothing spells being in retreat like this:

    SANTA MONICA, Calif., (AP) -- Activision Blizzard estimates that it sold about 4.7 million copies of its "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2" game worth $310 million in the first 24 hours in North America and the United Kingdom, making it the biggest-selling launch in the history of entertainment.

    The video game went on sale all over the world on Tuesday. The $310 million represents sales only in North America and Britain, Santa Monica, Calif. Activision Blizzard Inc. says. It didn't provide a figure for worldwide sales.

    The latest installment in the "Call of Duty" action franchise was expected to at least match last year's "Grand Theft Auto IV," which was the most successful video game release in history and at the time may have been the top entertainment launch ever.

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