Rocket Stock or Dud?

"The bigger they are, the harder they fall." It's the worst nightmare of every investor in today's market -- buying a rocket stock just before it takes a nosedive.

Now I readily admit that sometimes, stocks rise for a reason. But sometimes, the rise becomes the reason. No matter how often we caution them not to, investors do have a habit of buying "hot" stocks, and trusting momentum to keep 'em moving up.

Problem is, if the price goes up too much, even a great company can turn into a lousy investment. Below I list a few stocks that may have done just that. Stocks that, according to the smart folks at finviz.com, have more than doubled since the beginning of this year, and just might be ripe to fall back to earth.

Companies are selected by screening for 100% and higher price appreciation year-to-date on finviz.com. Five stars = highest possible CAPS rating; one star = lowest. Current pricing provided by Yahoo! Finance. CAPS ratings from Motley Fool CAPS.

Each of these companies has already won big this year, but how many of them can keep on winning? Ask our 145,000 CAPS members, and they'll tell you the chances are good that most of these stocks can maintain their gains -- and even rise to higher heights. The one stock they're most enthusiastic about, though, is the one you're least likely to have ever heard of.

Let's fix that now.

The bull case for ICICI Bank
Unless you live in a Bombay zip code, "ICICI" probably isn't a household name for you. But over on the subcontinent, chitownjester calls this bank the: "emerging behemoth of India," and a "Well run private bank going after the largest consumer market, and largest unbanked market in the world. 40% indians under 25, 70% of those under 18. Imagine the potential in the growth of emerging professional class."

What's more, curlykoa informs us that: "Hard as it is to believe there is an honest bank left in this world, [ICICI Bank] appears to be one. ... U.S. financials already have too much of my money, TARTS that they are."

In contrast, CAPS All-Star mytworupees argued last year that: "Indian banks were never really affected by the financial meltdown. Because of their cash at hand they are better placed for exponential growth going forward. ICICI is very well managed bank."

Um, define "well"
So there's a lot of enthusiasm out there about ICICI -- but is it justified?

I mean, I certainly understand the excitement. India is a huge growth market, and ICICI's stock sure seems to be reflecting the potential, having risen nearly four times in value off its nadir. And yet, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) has more than doubled off of its March lows. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) is up for that three-fold, Citigroup (NYSE:C) has quadrupled, and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) has turned in a clean five-bagger since March. Is ICICI really so special as to merit praise above all the rest?

Well, let's put it through its paces. See how ICICI stacks up against the best of the rest:

*Average over the last 10 years. Data courtesy of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Foolish takeaway
Selling for more than twice the worth of its tangible book value, ICICI goes toe to toe with the very best U.S. banks ... in a contest for high prices. But as for what you get for your money, ICICI's at the back of the pack. It's got the worst return on equity of the lot; it ties JPMorgan for lousy return on assets. When you get right down to it, therefore, it seems to me that the bull argument for this bank is short a couple of horns.

Time to chime in
Of course, that's just my opinion. And I must admit that I'm the farthest thing from a banking expert … but maybe you are?

I'm betting a few of you Fool readers out there know a whole lot more than I do about these banks and their relative merits. And I'm hoping that you'll take a moment now to tell us what you think about ICICI Bank. If you can spare the time, click this link, and tell us what you think.

Motley Fool CAPS: It's fun, it's free, and it just might make you famous.