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1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Life Time Fitness?

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 145,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, fitness club operator Life Time Fitness (NYSE: LTM  ) has received the dreaded one-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Life Time's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Life Time facts

Headquarters (Founded)

Chanhassen, Minn. (1990)

Market Cap

$1.1 billion

Industry

Sporting activities

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$827.3 million

Management

Founder/CEO Bahram Akradi
CFO Michael Robinson

Return on Capital (Average, Past 3 Years)

8.1%

Year-to-Date Return

85%

Cash/Debt

$8.14 million / $683.3 million

Other Sporting Activity Stock Alternatives

International Speedway (Nasdaq: ISCA  )
Speedway Motor Sports

CAPS Members Bearish on LTM Also Bearish on

Palm (Nasdaq: PALM  )
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X (NYSE: FAS  )

CAPS Members Bullish on LTM Also Bullish on

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  )
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  )
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  )

Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 78% of the 156 All-Star members who have rated Life Time believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include wisesilverwolf and pseud, both of whom are ranked in the top 5% of our community.

Just last month, wisesilverwolf reminded bulls that consumers continue to feel exhausted: "Who will pay for expensive gyms when they can't pay for everything else in their life? Especially now that you can't use your home equity like an ATM."

In an earlier pitch, pseud also criticized Life Time for being way out of shape. Here's an excerpt:

The company's business model is dependent upon the slightly-above average Joe shelling out $100/month for a gym which is a bit more shiny than the other gym around the corner which costs only $30/month. … One person pitched that their membership numbers are improving. True. But look at the same store membership which is declining. You can spend $20 million to open a new location and obviously some people will show up even in this economy. … In short, their business model was dependent on cheap and abundant consumer credit which is not coming back as far as I can see.

What do you think about Life Time, or any other stock for that matter? Make your voice heard on Motley Fool CAPS today. The CAPS community is waiting to hear your opinions. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

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Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick, Johnson & Johnson is an Income Investor choice, and Google is a recommendation of Rule Breakers. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On December 04, 2009, at 12:53 PM, demodave wrote:

    Do you guys make references to AAPL, GOOG and PALM in your "Bulls also bullish on ..." and "Bears also bearish on ..." just to guide more people to your articles? Seriously, what on God's Green Earth do they have to do with Life Time Fitness? Johnson and Johnson are at least into medical devices. Maybe you should go with Nintendo because of the Wii exercise games? Maybe a reference to Kouch Potatoes "R" Us would be more related to Life Time than Google and Apple, but I'm not totally sure.

    On a vaguely positive note, people trying to react against this economic depression or a lay-off may seek out exercise, but I have to agree with pseud that $100 a month seems a bit rich. Of course, with all the spec building and body building that I see in Dallas these days, Life Time may still have a constituency.

    No couches were harmed during the writing of this comment.

  • Report this Comment On December 13, 2009, at 12:34 AM, ZZyzxZZ wrote:

    It's $60 a month for a single membership, not $100, at most of their locations.

    Look in the chart where LTM rose to 16 them dove to 7 in March? That was me that sold their shares at 16 and I was the only one that got that price. So what you say? Well, its the only time that ever happened to me. Not to say I made money. I owned it at 40 not many months before.

    Anyways, I'm a member and I got to say there's something special about LTM, the club. If you don't play golf, it's better than any Country Club you can join.

    I dropped my membership a year ago and joined LA Fitness for half the price. They had opened a brand new center near me and I was more than happy with their machines. Yet I dropped LA Fitness and returned to LTM a month ago. It just wasn't the same. I could detail out many little things, but the bottom line is I'm willing to pay double for LTM over LA Fitness.

    I saw AKRADI BAHRAM the CEO and founder in an interview a while back and he said they hadn't lost customers in the downturn. Your article says they did. I guess I need to do some fact checking, cause the LTM I go to most often is still PACKED. I'm talking about a 500 car parking lot where you always have to walk 200 yeard because you can't find a spot closer unless you go at Midnight (they are open 24 hours).

    Anyways, I'm thinking their biggest problem has to do with debt. They had to sell some of their centers and lease them back this year. They were expanding rather quickly. And then AKRADI BAHRAM had all his shares margined to the max and was forced to sell a lot of them earlier this year. That was embarrassing for him and the company and helped drive the stock down to 7.

    I'm thinking about becoming a shareholder again, which is the reason I read this article. I haven't done my homework yet but a 1* ranking from the FOOLS? I don't think your members have done their homework either. The reasons summed up were all theoretical about what should happen when people are laid off or can't borrow money. Did anybody find the figures on how LTM membership #'s actually were over the past few years?

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