A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how well investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. In this column, we're looking at our best members who made some of their best stock selections early on, and seeing which ones they think will be best next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is GyroDynasty, who sports a top member rating of 98.89. A member since April 2007, GyroDynasty currently has 201 active picks on CAPS out of more than 2,500 stock picks made. Achieving 63% accuracy, GyroDynasty has also attracted 18 "groupies," CAPS members who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Stock	CAPS Rating (out of 5)	Call	Price*	Current Score
Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ  )	***	Outperform	$21.52	9.63
Continental Resources	***	Underperform	$39.01	2.50
Crosstex Energy	****	Outperform	$4.49	(5.53)
Energy Conversion Devices (Nasdaq: ENER  )	****	Outperform	$10.27	3.90
Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT  )	*	Outperform	$5.90	(3.28)
Limelight Networks	****	Outperform	$3.78	2.51
Nike (NYSE: NKE  )	****	Outperform	$64.78	(4.78)
PowerShares DB Agriculture	****	Outperform	$26.01	(1.06)
SolarWinds	**	Underperform	$20.75	(3.01)
Unite Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS  )	***	Outperform	$58.02	(0.85)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. *Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about a few of these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
It's fair to ask why United Parcel Service and FedEx (NYSE: FDX  ) haven't performed equally this year. Look at a stock chart for the past two years and you see the two companies walking virtually in lockstep, but as the recession gripped the economy tighter, the two began to diverge, with FedEx falling harder and faster. Yet with the recovery under way, their roles reversed.

FedEx has rebounded year to date, rising some 40%, while UPS is up only 5%. And if you look at the two from the market's inflection point in early March, the difference becomes starker: FedEx has soared 140%, while UPS is up only 40%.

On the surface, the differences indicate UPS to be the stock to buy now if you're betting on further economic growth. Having covered less ground than its rival, it can move up to narrow the discrepancy between them and resume its place as the one typically trading at a premium. Particularly since FedEx is still trying to swallow Kinko's, its silly entry into an office-supplies space dominated by Staples (Nasdaq: SPLS  ) . UPS's dividend is also yielding more than 3% right now, better than FedEx's 0.5% yield.

Look for the union label
Yet part of the dichotomy in performance no doubt has to do with UPS having taken on gobs of debt to fund a pension buyout, increasing total leverage to nearly 60% of capital as of the end of September. It also has the added drag of being more heavily unionized than FedEx, though it's trying to level that playing field by forcing its rival to be covered by the National Labor Relations Act (like UPS), instead of the Railway Labor Act.

The reason they're governed by different sets of rules (though many consider the two to be interchangeable business models) is because FedEx is essentially an air carrier employing trucks to feed its air fleet, and all airlines and express carriers are covered by the RLA. UPS, meanwhile, is primarily a ground company whose air service is not considered separate and distinct.

Yet investors remain positive that it can still succeed, particularly when compared to government mail service. CAPS member Phantomxyz says UPS will continue to steal share:

Post office continues to lose market share now and well into the future. UPS will benefit by these events over the next number of years. If it was not for the advertising dollars put into the U.S. Post Office there would be even greater loses for them. Packaged goods will make more for companies than plain letter distribution. Most people continue to talk by means of computers and cell phones. Most of my recent Christmas cards came to me on Email. Who has 44 cents plus the cost of the cards sent to an average of 50 people per season. Facts show the trends for the future.

If you think the package service can continue to deliver the goods, let us know on United Parcel Services's CAPS page or in the comments section below.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made, all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. Since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?